Locks

NFL (1 Unit) 2-Team 6 Point Teaser (-110; Odds via Caesars)

NY Jets @ Miami Dolphins PK: 12:00 PM CT on CBS

This one should be a bingo free space. The cratering Jets seem to find new depths to crater to every week, while the Dolphins are treating this like a playoff game because it essentially is for them. I actually think that Miami covers the touchdown spread here because they’ve consistently been a bully team that beats up on bad opponents, especially in South Beach.

When you make Tua and the Fins a touchdown or higher favorite he is 15-1 straight up and 12-4 ATS, plus he’s never lost to the Jets. It will be extremely difficult for a non-competitive Jets team to compete here without Breece Hall or Sauce Gardner, so I simply can’t see the Dolphins doing anything but winning comfortably here.

Las Vegas Raiders @ Tampa Bay Bucs -0.5: 12:00 PM CT on CBS

On the other side of Florida is another one-sided matchup that I think the favorite runs away with, but just asking them to win looks very easy. The main thing I’m seeing with the Raiders is how much last week must have taken out of them. They treated that Black Friday game like their Super Bowl, had a new quarterback bounce, and still managed to lose to the KC wizardry.

Further to that point, Vegas is just 3-10 straight up the week after playing the Chiefs, so it takes something out of them. I think the pass-happy Bucs shred a Raider defense that’s 29th in EPA/play against the pass and roll to an easy victory.

NFL (1 Unit) 2-Team 6 Point Teaser (-110; Odds via Caesars)

NY Jets @ Miami Dolphins PK: 12:00 PM CT on CBS

See above. I’m using this as an anchor across multiple teasers because that’s how much I love the Dolphins to come away with the win today.

Cleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh Steelers -0.5: 12:00 PM CT on CBS

Anybody remember Tim Couch? Whether you do or not, either way it emphasizes the point that he was the last Browns quarterback to get them a win in Pittsburgh, all the way back in 2003. They just don’t win there, and I don’t think today will be any different in a revenge game where the Steelers are fighting for playoff position.

I’m not making much of the Browns winning the first meeting because anything can happen in snow globe games like that. The Steelers are clearly the better team, they’re also the luckier team by a wide margin, and should be able to continue this offensive success against a Browns defense that always seems to struggle on the road. But making Mike Tomlin a sizable favorite is not a recipe for betting success, so I want Pittsburgh at a number where all they have to do is win.

NFL (1 Unit) 3-Team 7 Point Teaser (+120; Odds via Caesars)

Carolina Panthers @ Philadelphia Eagles -6.5: 12:00 PM CT on FOX

There’s good reason why this spread opened so high as one of the biggest of the season, and still got bet up to nearly two touchdowns. We’re looking at one of the biggest mismatches you can have in the NFL in every phase of the matchup. No matter which team has the ball or what they try to do with it, Philadelphia is head and shoulders above the Panthers in every facet of the game. This should be a blowout, and knocking a touchdown off the required margin is great value.

Buffalo Bills/LA Rams Over 42.5: 3:25 PM CT on FOX

The Bills are on a ridiculous run offensively, hanging 30-plus points in 6 straight games and 9 of 12 overall this season. Josh Allen joins Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady (4 times) as the only quarterbacks to have guided their teams to 30-plus points in 6 straight games, so this is a generational run that needs to be capitalized on. I think they have a decent chance to make it 7 straight against a below-average Rams defense, which would create a very nice floor for reaching this adjusted total. But Buffalo has not been great on defense, and lets opponents do whatever they want between the 20’s which opens up scoring opportunities. The Rams are still extremely dangerous offensively, so I see both teams getting plenty of points on the board today.

LA Chargers +11 @ Kansas City Chiefs: 7:20 PM CT on NBC

Even after talking about how they wanted to start winning by margin, facing a bad team that they’ve owned for years, the Chiefs couldn’t win by margin on Black Friday and needed some potential referee f-ckery to pull off the win. They just don’t blow teams out, not even the NFL’s worst, so I have a tough time expecting them to do it here against a good Chargers team. We might be at the bottom of the market on KC at Arrowhead, but adding 7 points to the cushion for LA through several key numbers is great value. The Chargers will make this a game through their hard-nosed style and good coaching, turning it into a single-digit affair in my view.

NFL (1 Unit) Philadelphia Eagles First Half Team Total Over 14.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 12:00 PM CT on FOX

The weird thing hidden in the dominance of Philadelphia this season is their ineptitude in first quarters. The Eagles are the lowest-scoring first quarter team in the league, and it holds down their first-half scoring to some extent. I actually think that’s helping out here since it would probably be a considerably higher total to clear if not for those first quarter woes.

But what better opponent than Carolina to fix that against? The Panthers continue to allow the most first half points per game at 18.2, which ticks up to 18.7 on the road. The Eagles should be able to get going much earlier than usual against this defense if they just lean on Saquon Barkley, who they’re actively trying to get records for. The blowout I see coming in this game should start before halftime, and Philly should have no trouble putting up plenty of points.

NFL (1 Unit) Miami Dolphins Team Total Over 25.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 12:00 PM CT on CBS

Yep, I need another way to back Miami against this train wreck of a Jets team. Things have been truly awful for the Jets on the defensive side of the ball since firing Robert Saleh, as they’ve turned into one of the league’s worst statistical defenses. They’ve also allowed 5 of their past 6 opponents to clear this total in the process, and I think another is coming here. Miami as I said loves to bully bad opponents, they won’t have to face Sauce Gardner in the secondary, and won’t show any mercy as they try to atone for their ugly Thanksgiving performance. I think this one gets out of hand, and love the Fish every way but loose today.

NFL Prop Picks (Odds via DraftKings)

1 Unit – Cade Otton Over 41.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

1 Unit – Saquon Barkley Over 111.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Devon Achane Over 30.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – George Pickens Longest Reception Over 28.5 Yards (-110)

0.75 Unit – Malik Nabers Over 6.5 Receptions (+140)

1 Unit – Drake London Over 6.5 Receptions (+110)

0.5 Unit – Nick Westbrook-Ikine Anytime TD (+195)

0.75 Unit – Will Dissly Over 35.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick has gained +72.6 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.