Locks

NFL (0.75 Unit) Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions -3.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:15 PM CT on Prime Video

I thought the stumbling block for this Lions freight train was going to be a month ago, when they visited Green Bay on a cold, windy, and rainy day. Nope, Detroit won and covered to put serious doubt into the old Jared Goff outdoors concerns. That was the sign for me that this team is different, and putting them back home indoors with a short number to cover has to be an automatic play for me.

I’ll admit that this spread being the same as that first meeting is a little strange, as I think the Lions should be favored by closer to a touchdown. But despite plenty of betting attention on the Packers, this line has not moved. Sharp groups are on Detroit here, and I think they’re seeing a Packers defense that has good surface metrics, but has thrived on turnover luck and will be in trouble against the league’s top offense. While Detroit didn’t cover last week in a crazy game, that means good things for them tonight as they’re 10-2 ATS at home the week after failing to cover with Jared Goff.

Bonus Prop Picks (Odds via DraftKings)

0.25 Unit – Josh Jacobs Over 17.5 Rush Attempts (+100)

0.25 Unit – Jahmyr Gibbs Over 67.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

0.25 Unit – Amon-Ra St Brown Anytime TD (+105)

0.25 Unit – Jayden Reed Anytime TD (+135)

0.25 Unit – Sam LaPorta Anytime TD (+195)

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Purdue/Penn St Over 149.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 5:30 PM CT on FS1

This is a high total for a slow-paced team like Purdue, but I think Penn State’s up-tempo style will be a big determining factor. If the Nittany Lions are able to speed this game up, then Purdue’s ultra-efficient offense will pile up the points on a suspect defense. Penn State has thrived on beating up bad opponents for the most part, so the Boilermakers with the country’s 8th-best adjusted offensive efficiency will be a big shock to their system.

Purdue can shoot the lights out, and giving them extra possessions is a recipe for points. But Penn State actually enters this matchup with the better effective field goal rate at 9th in the country, so I’m expecting both teams to have good nights offensively. We’ve seen the Boilermakers get sped up before when they faced Alabama, resulting in 165 points in that game, so another up-tempo opponent should create another high-scoring affair here.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick has gained +75.2 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.