Locks

NBA (0.5 Unit) Minnesota Timberwolves/Sacramento Kings Over 221.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:00 PM CT on Fanduel Sports North

Ok Wolves, seriously wtf is this, get it together. Some consistency would be nice instead of scoring 125.3 PPG for three games, and following it up with 100.0 PPG the next three nights. It’s inexcusable given the competition, but I still have confidence that a fix is coming.

It needs to get here soon if they’re going to compete with the Kings, who even without DeMar DeRozan and Malik Monk tonight are still a scary offense. I think this total is a significant discount based on their absences, and probably an overreaction to be honest, so I’ll count on the Wolves waking up here and Sacramento keeping their offense hot at home.

 

NBA (0.5 Unit) Detroit Pistons -1 @ Toronto Raptors (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on SportsNet

It’s not like the Pistons are good and I want to get in the habit of backing them, but it’s tough to find any team in a tougher spot than Toronto right now. The Raptors came into this season trying to tank, weren’t good to begin with, and now are about as shorthanded as you can get.

There are a lot of G-League players getting plenty of minutes for them right now, and even against a bad Pistons team that’s not a recipe for success. Detroit at least puts forth a good effort on a nightly basis, and are expected to get several key players back tonight including Jaden Ivey, so I’ll back them to extend this 5-game losing streak the Raptors are on.

 

NBA (0.5 Unit) Karl-Anthony Towns Over 39.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 6:30 PM CT on MSG

I’m definitely missing KAT as a Wolves fan. Seeing him drop a 46-piece in a losing effort like he did on Wednesday brings back bad memories, but that’s a separate issue. KAT’s 46/10/3 stat line from that game is actually more trend than mirage, as he’s averaging 44.5 on the PRA prop this month. I think he continues that tonight against a Brooklyn team that’s extremely banged up in the frontcourt, so I don’t see anyone keeping him from getting over this combination total tonight.

 

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Alabama -2 @ Purdue (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 6:00 PM CT on Peacock

Thanks to my obsession with their first half team totals, I’ve seen a lot of Purdue basketball already this season. I’m not impressed, as I don’t see the Boilermakers adjusting well to the post-Zach Edey era on either end of the court. And now, with the loss of Daniel Jacobsen, they’re actually the undersized team in this matchup and I think it hurts them.

Alabama brings a ton of size and length to complement their up-tempo style and barrage of three-point attempts. An opponent being able to score inside and out is what gave Purdue a scare against Yale earlier this week, and the Tide will bring an incredibly upgraded version of that style. This is a revenge game from last season when Alabama almost took down Purdue with Zach Edey, and I see the usual overrated Big10 team going down to arguably the best team in the country.

 

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) SMU Moneyline @ Butler (-115; Odds via BetMGM): 6:00 PM CT on FS2

This line opened with Butler as a 1.5 point favorite, but swung through zero to make SMU the favorite. That always gets my attention, and I’m following the smart money here. SMU has three blowout wins on their resume, and have looked like a very deep team in the process as the Mustangs have 7 players logging 20-plus minutes a game.

That immediately gives them an advantage over Butler who has never had a deep roster, and look overly reliant on Patrick McCaffrey this season. I also can’t get Butler’s home loss to Austin Peay out of my head, and think this team is in for a down season. SMU meanwhile had to step their game up in this first season of ACC play and I think they have, so I’ll back them to get this road win that sharps are also expecting.

 

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) UMass Lowell/Gonzaga First Half Under 78.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 8:00 PM CT on ESPN+

Usually in games where Gonzaga is matched up against an inferior opponent like this, I’m looking for them to run it up early and coast late. That would suggest a high-scoring first half, but things haven’t worked that way with this Zags squad as their two first halves saw 79 and 76 total points. While that’s right in range of this number, those games came against power conference schools with excellent offenses.

Gonzaga won’t be up against that tonight as Lowell is a very slow-paced team that struggles to shoot and focuses on defense. I think the River Hawks try to grind this game down while also having trouble contributing much offensively. Gonzaga might hang a big number here, but I just don’t see these teams collectively getting to where this total sits tonight.

 

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Lehigh @ UCLA -22.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 9:00 PM CT on BIG10+

I can tell that UCLA is angry about their loss to New Mexico a week ago where they gave up 72 points to a good offensive team. The Bruins will always be about defense first under Mick Cronin, and they’ve shown that defensive strength in their other two games by allowing just 40 and 50 points. Facing a Lehigh team that is pretty rough offensively should be another opportunity for the Bruins to flex that defense and make up for their lone loss.

We’ve already seen Lehigh tangle with a middle-of-the-road Big10 team this season as they were blown out by Northwestern 90-46 in the opener. UCLA has a much tougher defense than Northwestern and will likely be using that game as a benchmark today, so expect lockdown defense to carry them in a cover here.

 

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

 

 

Tiny Nick has gained +70.9 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.