Locks

NBA (0.75 Unit) Minnesota Timberwolves/Portland Trail Blazers Over 220.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:00 PM CT on Fanduel Sports North

Last night was a strange game for the Wolves, making it two in a row for them now, but the real version of this team is in there somewhere. That version is the one that put 127 points on the Blazers just last Friday, so the offense is likely not far away.

More consistency out of them tonight instead of a rollercoaster ride of good and awful quarters should help, as that’s what plagued last night’s game. Still, these teams got to 220 points in a disjointed game where shooting droughts were far too common, so just a little improvement there will send tonight’s game over the total that’s been posted for all three meetings now.

NBA (0.75 Unit) Indiana Pacers +1 @ Orlando Magic (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 6:00 PM CT on Fanduel Sports FL

Despite a current three-game winning streak without him, the Magic are missing Paolo Banchero much more than is appreciated in this line. Orlando lost their first four games in a row without their star player, all on the road against good teams including this Pacers squad. Returning home and beating the likes of the Pelicans, Wizards, and Hornets does not impress me one bit, so I think they’re a little overvalued here.

Slowly but surely, Indiana seems to be figuring out their offense which they’ll need against a good defensive team tonight. But this was a close matchup when the Magic had Banchero healthy, winning 119-115 in Orlando, and a fairly comfortable Indiana win without him, so I’ll side with the Pacers at a pick-em price tonight.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Louisiana @ Houston -16.5 First Half (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on ESPN+

I’m ok with losing this bet because it’s a general principle pick that’s gotta be made. Houston is coming off a home loss, one of the rarer occurrences in sports, and it’s one where they choked away a solid lead against an excellent Auburn team. I can guarantee Kelvin Sampson put this team through hell in practice this week, and they are going to take some things out on Louisiana tonight.

While the Ragin’ Cajuns are a solid team, their lack of size and inability to compete on the boards is going to put them at a serious disadvantage here. Houston has been arguably the best first half team in the country for years, so if they own the boards and clamp down defensively like I expect, they’ll build a big lead by halftime in this one.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) North Dakota St/Santa Clara Over 152.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 9:00 PM CT on ESPN+

There should be a lot of three’s flying in this game, and just decent efficiency levels on those shots will send this game over the total. Both the Bison and Broncos want to fire away from deep, with NDSU 20th in attempts per game and Santa Clara launching the 12th-most nationally.

Those should find their way through the hoop tonight with both teams struggling defensively, as the Bison are 310th and the Broncos 307th in effective field goal percentage defense. With Santa Clara at home they should be able to push a higher tempo here, and I think we see two good offenses have an easy night against vulnerable defenses.

NCAA Basketball (1 Unit) Long Beach St/San Franciso Over 145.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:00 PM CT on ESPN+

This is the most surprising number on the board tonight. All of the metrics gurus that I trust have this game getting into the 150’s with ease, so that makes for a big delta to the total and gives me plenty of confidence to jump in. Let’s start with the fact that all three of the D1 games for these two squads have gotten into the 150’s and beyond.

I think that’s a product of offense versus defense matchups that should really play out in this game. San Francisco has been excellent at scoring inside, while Long Beach has been atrocious with interior defense, allowing the 22nd-highest success on two-pointers. But the Beach can counter with excellent three-point shooting, which is something the Dons haven’t seen yet and should result in plenty of points. At the end of the day, a lot of people think this total is dead wrong and I’m one of them.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick has gained +71.8 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.