Locks

NBA (0.75 Unit) Joel Embiid Over 34.5 Points+Rebounds (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 6:30 PM CT on TNT

I’m still not over the Wolves trading away Karl-Anthony Towns, but this game tonight is probably going to help heal the wound. With KAT no longer on my favorite team, it won’t be as painful to watch Joel Embiid take his lunch money and stuff him in a locker, which has been the case every time they face off. Embiid makes his return tonight, and should be in for a big game after a lot of negativity directed his way in this young season. This number is well below what he has averaged for points and boards the past six seasons, so I have to take advantage of the situation and matchup with Towns.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Arkansas Pine Bluff/South Florida Over 163.5 (-110; Odds via BetMGM): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN+

This total is on the rise, up and over the projections from metrics sites, and I would agree. There is little chance of any defense being played in this game, particularly from Pine Bluff who checks in at 363rd in the country for adjusted defensive efficiency. The Golden Lions have faced two D1 teams and allowed 103 and 109 points, plus they’re playing at a very fast pace, ranked 22nd in adjusted tempo.

So South Florida will get whatever they want, and I would expect that the Bulls want to take out some frustrations and emotions on a weak opponent. USF has had the toughest start to the season imaginable with the death of their coach, so I would think a blowout win will feel good. But the Bulls have had trouble defending themselves, and are also playing at a lightning quick pace, so I see these teams going up and down the floor all night to cash the high over.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) St Francis PA @ Penn St -29.5 (-110; Odds via BetMGM): 6:00 PM CT on Peacock

Here’s another case where smart money very much disagrees with the metrics projections, and I’m on their side again. This time of year, in under-the-radar games like this, the standard procedure for books is to copy/paste the KenPom number as the opening spread and then adjust as needed. Well, smart money is seeing what I’m seeing with Penn State, that the Nittany Lions are here to snatch souls.

I thought it would be a bit of a down year in Happy Valley, but wins of 42 and 49 points to start the season say otherwise. Now Penn State faces their weakest opponent yet by KenPom rankings, as St Francis checks in at 345th in the country. The Red Flash offense is really bad, and has no chance against a Nittany Lions offense that is playing faster than I’ve ever seen and has hung triple digits in both their games. Against an in-state school on national TV, I’m seeing Penn State roll to cover this big number.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Belmont/Lipscomb Under 155.5 (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 7:00 PM CT on ESPN+

Typically these are two programs where I’m looking to bet the over when they take the court, especially if they’re playing each other. But it seems like both teams have found new defensive-oriented identities, especially Lipscomb who has made massive strides after finishing last season 308th in adjusted defensive efficiency.

The Bison have also slowed down considerably, and are nowhere near as effective from deep as past seasons, so they won’t be able to exploit Belmont’s biggest defensive weakness. The Bruins meanwhile look to be less reliant on three-point shooting and playing at a slower pace as well, so with all four of these teams’ D1 games going well under this total, I’m expecting another here.

NCAA Basketball (1 Unit) South Dakota Team Total Over 73.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on BTN

In a weird scheduling quirk, South Dakota and Iowa have played the same two opponents for their D1 games so far. That’s data point gold this early in the season, and it’s pointing to South Dakota’s offense being undervalued here. The Coyotes have had big nights offensively in those games, scoring 93 and 91 points which is better than what Iowa managed in scoring 89 against both opponents.

South Dakota has been playing with their hair on fire as well, ranking 11th in adjusted tempo, so with Iowa’s fast pace we’re going to see a ton of possessions in this game. That will mean more opportunity for the Coyotes to score inside and in transition, which has been the big weakness for Iowa’s defense. Those easy points should pile up quickly, and probably causes the full game to go over a massive total. But Iowa being large favorites serves to hold down South Dakota’s isolated total, and I’m jumping in as a result.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick has gained +72.1 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.