Locks

NCAA Football (1 Unit) Air Force @ Army -13.5 First Half (-110; Odds via Caesars): 11:00 AM CT on CBS

Army’s incredibly soft schedule rolls on this week as they face the service academy having by far the ugliest season of the three. It’s been rough for Air Force as they really struggle to score, with the third-fewest points in the country this season. They’re a little better in first halves, but still just 121st in putting up points before halftime. That’s not going to cut it against Army, as the juggernaut that is the Black Knights is 5th in first half scoring and lead the nation in first half defense. Plus they’ve had an extra week to prepare for their rival here, and I see this going just as seemingly every Army game has gone so far. If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.

NCAA Football (0.5 Unit) Ohio St/Penn St First Half Under 22.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 11:00 AM CT on FOX

I’m looking back to last season’s meeting between these teams that had 16 points at half and seeing a fairly similar start today. This season the Buckeyes have a worse offense and better defense, while Penn State has a better defense, so an even slower start might be on the table here. With this being a top-5 clash that could very well eliminate the loser from Big10 title game contention, I’m expecting both squads to take a cautious approach early on, play field position, and rely on those excellent defenses. Look for a physical game here between two rivals who typically get into low-scoring slugfests.

NCAA Football (0.5 Unit) Texas Tech/Iowa St Over 56.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 2:30 PM CT on ESPN

Iowa State has had a bye week to prepare for this game, but I think the cracks in their defense are still going to be there. The Clones have especially had issues on defense against the run, ranking just 88th in rushing yards allowed per game and 115th on a per-carry basis. Enter Tahj Brooks, who has been running all over the Big12 this season, and should have another big day against this defense. But Texas Tech can’t stop anything, and an excellent passing game for ISU should stay hot. Both of these teams have gotten into plenty of wild shootouts this season, so look for both offenses to have success and cash this over.

NCAA Football (0.75 Unit) Louisville/Clemson Over 61.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on ESPN

Clemson has had their foot on the gas every minute of every possession of every game after the season opener, which will not change tonight. They won’t have any trouble with that approach against a Louisville defense that’s 88th in yards per point allowed and have given up 30-plus points three times. Fresh off a bye, Clemson should torch the Cardinals as they have every opponent for six straight games. But Louisville manages to see all their games go back and forth, with an excellent offense of their own keeping them in every game. So the Cardinals should stay with the Tigers to some extent, and that should create the shootout necessary to get at least 9 touchdowns on the board.

NBA (1 Unit) Boston Celtics/Charlotte Hornets Over 231.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 5:00 PM CT on NBCS-Boston

Celtics overs until the wheels fall off, day two, as I’m running this back from last night in a doubleheader spot for today. Boston is still leading the league in scoring and ranked second in offensive efficiency so far this season after 124 points last night, and I don’t see that slowing down tonight. Boston had another poor shooting night, especially from deep, and still managed that output along with clearing the total. So improvement from them and/or Charlotte tonight will again send this over the total that is actually coming in at a bit of a discount.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick has gained +85.7 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.