Locks

NFL (0.75 Unit) Houston Texans/NY Jets Under 42 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:15 PM CT on Prime Video

I’m almost always ready to get involved on a Thursday night under, but with the state of these two teams it’s looking even better. Let’s start with the fact that Aaron Rodgers is simply not healthy, dealing with several injuries and now having to play on a short week. His offensive line has been an issue, and this Houston pass rush is one of the league’s best, so I’m seeing some struggles for the Jets offense here.

And Houston is in a tough spot as well, getting bitten hard by the injury bug with Nico Collins and Stefon Diggs both unavailable for CJ Stroud tonight. Last season when Stroud faced the Jets it was ugly, going 10-for-23 with 91 yards in a game where he had Collins. The Texans will have to keep it on the ground here, which is easy against a Jets defense ranked 24th in EPA/play against the run. That should keep the clock moving all night and hold this game under the total.

NCAA Football (0.75 Unit) Tulane/Charlotte Over 56 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on ESPN

I’ve been very surprised by this total all week, watching it sit below the key number of 56 and now finally moving up a little bit. It’s likely due to expected pace of play, as both teams tend to take their time on offense, but what I’m seeing is very efficient offensive outputs in this one.

Tulane in particular is going to chew up Charlotte’s defense that is 100th in rushing success rate allowed, so the Green Wave’s very run-heavy approach will pile up points. But Charlotte is also very explosive on offense, ranked 6th in explosive play rate, and also create a lot of havoc as they either have a big play or tend to turn it over. So a Tulane defense ranked 76th in explosiveness allowed should also surrender plenty of points.

Tulane has already scored 40-plus points 4 times this season and tend to run up the score both actively and unintentionally, while Charlotte has already allowed 50-plus twice this year. Conference games for these two have averaged 63.9 PPG, so on a perfect night in Charlotte, I’m on the over here.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick has gained +84.4 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.