Locks

NBA (1 Unit) Boston Celtics/Indiana Pacers Over 233.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN

The Celtics had an uncharacteristically poor shooting night on Monday, especially from their two top stars, and still dropped 119 points. I don’t think those shooting woes will continue, and Boston can’t afford for them to when facing a team like the Pacers. Even though it’s been a struggle for Indiana to start the season, they still have an elite space-and-pace offense that mirrors Boston’s style, so that should create an up-tempo game here.

I can’t help but think back to the playoffs when these teams had two shootouts to start their series, and those were in high-stakes playoff games, not the 5th game of the season. If these teams are on their respective games, this one should soar over the total.

NBA (0.5 Unit) Atlanta Hawks Team Total Over 118.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 6:00 PM CT on MNMT

I think the full-game over for this one might be a little high since the Wizards will be without Kyle Kuzma tonight. But, as usual, they’ll also be without any defense whatsoever, so Atlanta should take advantage with a big night themselves. The Hawks are already 3-1 over this total on the season, including the first of this home-and-home doubleheader with Washington on Monday.

While they snuck over it in that game I think there’s room for improvement, as they missed 10 free throws and only shot 37.5% from deep against a poor defense. Positive regression in those departments, plus revenge on their mind from Monday’s loss, should send Atlanta over their isolated total.

NBA (0.5 Unit) New York Knicks -1.5 @ Miami Heat (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 6:30 PM CT on MSG

The Knicks might be the best 1-2 team in the NBA, and Miami really hasn’t beaten anyone respectable yet, so, I don’t know, Knicks to cover? No, seriously, that’s all I’ve got here, it’s called a gut pick, look it up.

MLB (0.25 Unit) Freddie Freeman Over 0.5 Home Runs (+500; Odds via DraftKings): 7:08 PM CT on FOX

If you’re not sprinkling on this right now, you’re missing out on a generational run from an elite hitter. Freeman not only has homered in all four games of this World Series, he went yard in the last two games of the 2021 World Series so that makes six (6!) straight World Series games with a dinger. It’s not going to be as easy against Gerrit Cole, but Freeman does have one career homer against the Yankee ace, plus a .348 average and 1.096 OPS. That short porch in right at Yankee Stadium is calling, so at this price I’m tossing some pizza money on another tonight.

Degenerates

NBA LeBron James Over 23.5 Points (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 6:00 PM CT on SportsNet LA

LeBron going back to Cleveland should be a highly motivated spot for him, especially this season with Bronny on the team. He struggled in his last game, barely keeping his double-digit points streak alive, but I expect him to both shake that off and demand the ball tonight. With Cleveland playing a more up-tempo and higher-scoring style there should be more scoring opportunities for LeBron to cash in on, and I think he does.

Tiny Nick has gained +82.9 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.