Locks

NBA (0.5 Unit) Minnesota Timberwolves -1.5 @ LA Lakers (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:00 PM CT on TNT

There will only be one serious basketball team taking the court in this game, and it’s the Wolves. There is no way I would bet on the Lakers in this situation even if they weren’t facing my favorite team, because tonight is all about the show, not the game.

This is the opportunity LeBron James has been waiting years for, cultivating an image of Bronny being able to play at an NBA level, and now he can finally play with him. The whole production takes on a circus-like feel with Ken Griffey and Ken Griffey Jr being in attendance, and I think the Wolves focus on basketball to win and cover while LA focuses on the hoopla.

NBA (0.5 Unit) NY Knicks/Boston Celtics First Quarter Over 57.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on TNT

I’m always looking for plenty of early points with the Celtics at home, as they led the NBA last season in first quarter scoring. In this opening game of the season, fresh off a title, I expect them to be firing away in this game as they usually do. Their high-volume three-point shooting will never change, and those should be connecting early against a Knicks team that was just 21st in opponent three-point percentage.

But I think the Knicks can keep up offensively with the duo of Jalen Brunson and KAT, plus KAT in the mix offers little rim protection with Mitchell Robinson still out. I project this total to be one of the lowest we see all season for a game at TD Garden if things go as expected with Boston this year, so I’m jumping on it now.

NCAA Football (0.5 Unit) UTEP @ Louisiana Tech -3.5 First Half (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on CBSSN

This UTEP team gets off to such slow starts, I have to fade them in the first half even on a number that isn’t particularly advantageous. The Miners are ranked 123rd in first half scoring, along with 117th in first half points allowed, so it’s easy to see why they’re consistently facing big deficits at halftime this season. This is a tough situational spot for them, coming off their first win of the season and having to go on the road, so they should struggle to get out of the gates here like usual.

And Louisiana Tech is a good first half team, especially defensively as they’re ranked 26th in first half scoring allowed. The Bulldogs have had an unfavorable schedule so far, but their other conference home game saw them leading by 20 at the break against a similarly bad opponent, so I think they build a solid early lead here too.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick has gained +80.3 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.