Locks

WNBA (0.75 Unit) NY Liberty/Minnesota Lynx First Quarter Over 40.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on ESPN

I’m riding the trend here, as every game in this Finals series has followed an eerily similar pattern. Each first quarter has been the highest-scoring of all three games, with outputs of 51, 52, and 46 points. Then things die down, especially in the second quarter, which has ended up cashing two first half unders so it’s definitely the first quarter I want to focus in on here.

This is not actually new for these teams, as the four regular season meetings all saw them go over this first quarter total with 46.8 points on average. With the Lynx facing elimination here, I expect them to look to build a big early lead, and with New York’s scoring ability added in, that should create a lot of early offense again.

NCAA Football (1 Unit) 3-Team 7 Point Teaser (+120; Odds via Caesars)

Florida State/Duke Under 49.5: 6:00 PM CT on ESPN2

These two offenses are a rough watch, and strong defense from both teams should keep this a slow and boring game. Duke in particular has been playing excellent defense, with a top-10 pass defense and really good success in defending the red zone.

The FSU offense has been awful, ranking 109th in rushing success and 129th in passing success, so I don’t see much from the Seminoles in this one. And the Blue Devils struggle offensively as well, ranking 122nd in rushing success and 75th in passing success, so neither team will do much scoring in this game, keeping it under the adjusted total.

Oregon/Purdue Over 53.5: 7:00 PM CT on FOX

With the Ducks coming off their massive win over Ohio State last week, plus the cross-country travel, there’s definitely concern that they could be in a flat spot here. I’m hoping that comes defensively, and there’s certainly a chance for Purdue to build off their offensive breakthrough last week behind freshman QB Ryan Browne.

The defensive weakness for Oregon is against the run, and Devin Mockobee should have plenty of success there. But the Boilermakers have objectively the worst defense of any power conference team, and this elite Oregon offense can shred them in their sleep. With three teams already having put 50-plus on Purdue this season, anything close to that from an Oregon team looking for style points will send this well over the adjusted total.

Oklahoma State @ BYU -2.5: 9:15 PM CT on ESPN

This BYU defense has reached elite status, and while they’ll be tested today by Oklahoma State’s passing attack, I think they’re up to the challenge. The Cougars have been leaning on that defense all season to make this surprise undefeated run, and they match up well with what OSU wants to do. The Cowboys are a pass-heavy team with an excellent receiver corps, but BYU’s defense ranks 10th in passing success rate and should slow that offense down.

While BYU isn’t elite on offense, they should have no trouble with an OSU defense that’s easy to push around and doesn’t create big plays defensively. This is also a night game in Provo where the atmosphere gets crazy, and it’s tough for any team to go into that environment, particularly if you’ve never made this trip which is the case for the Cowboys. I would lean towards BYU on the regular spread, but being able to get this under a field goal gives me a lot of confidence.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick has gained +83.2 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.