Locks

NFL (0.5 Unit) 2-Team 6 Point Teaser (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 7:15 PM CT on ESPN

Buffalo Bills @ New York Jets +7.5

I’m looking for the fired-coach bounce here out of the Jets, and getting a divisional home team at more than a touchdown underdog. That’s good value in my book, as teams that fire their coach midseason usually see a big ATS improvement in their next game. Plus, I don’t particularly trust this Bills team, as they got severely overinflated from beating up on three straight bad teams to start the season.

As soon as Buffalo saw a good defense they started having problems, and the Jets are still a top-tier defense. I also expect somewhat of a bump from removing play-calling duties from Nathaniel Hackett, so I’m expecting the Jets to win outright but at least keep it within this adjusted number.

Buffalo Bills/New York Jets Under 46.5

I’m always happy to take an under in primetime, especially one with division rivals fighting for the inside track in the division race. I think that makes this a hard-fought slugfest, and the style of both teams should help keep it lower scoring. Buffalo wants to run the ball, which is much easier to do against the Jets as they’re 22nd in EPA/play against the run compared to 2nd against the pass.

It’s a very similar story for the Jets attacking the Bills defense, which is 30th against the run but 3rd against the pass. The Jets have left star running back Breece Hall out of their gameplan for too long, and I would think the change in play-callers helps get him involved. That should help keep the clock moving no matter who has the ball, sustain drives, and hold this game under the adjusted total.

NFL Prop Picks (Odds via DraftKings)

0.5 Unit – Breece Hall Over 56.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Josh Allen Over 33.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

0.25 Unit – James Cook Over 2.5 Receptions (+125)

MLB Playoff Prop Picks (Odds via DraftKings)

0.25 Unit – Will Smith Alt Over 1.5 Total Bases (+135)

0.25 Unit – Will Smith Over 0.5 RBI (+170)

0.25 Unit – Giancarlo Stanton Under 0.5 Total Bases (+110)

0.25 Unit – Juan Soto Alt Over 1.5 Total Bases (+145)

0.25 Unit – Carlos Rodon Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+115)

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick has gained +82.8 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.