Locks

MLB (1 Unit) Arizona Diamondbacks/Colorado Rockies Over 10.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 2:10 PM CT on ARID

This number is not commensurate with a Coors Field total, and I think the pitchers involved today will make sure this game sails over. A total this low is probably factoring in that the Diamondbacks have struggled in the first two games of this series, only managing two runs both nights. Whether that’s Arizona being worn out after a crazy series with Milwaukee and then heading to elevation, or pure baseball weirdness, I think it ends today.

The D’backs get to go up against a lefty starter here in Austin Gomber, who despite having solid numbers against Arizona this season has allowed a .333 average and .946 OPS to them in his career. With the way the Snakes hit lefties, they’re primed to break out of this mini slump in a big way. But don’t forget about Eduardo Rodriguez’s struggles, as the Arizona lefty has a 5.50 ERA since re-joining the rotation. With ideal conditions in Denver, I see this matinee going well over a deflated total.

Degenerates

MLB St Louis Cardinals Team Total Over 4.5 (-105; Odds via Caesars): 6:45 PM CT on Bally Sports MW

There is really only one element to this handicap, and that’s Jake Woodford starting for Pittsburgh tonight. The righty was acquired from the White Sox this summer, and things have gone about as well as can be expected when you invest in White Sox pitching. Woodford has posted an 8.01 ERA on the season, including a 9.00 ERA in his action in August before going on the IL for a few weeks.

Importantly, Woodford has made 6 starts this season, and the opponent has gone over this team total in 5 of them with an average of 8.0 runs per game. The Cardinals haven’t exactly been impressive offensively the past couple weeks, but a lineup that’s much better against righties facing this bad a pitcher should break out tonight with a big number.

Tiny Nick has gained +94.6 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.