Locks

NFL (0.75 Unit) Miami Dolphins Team Total Over 25.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:15 PM CT on Prime Video

I’m very conflicted about how to approach the total for this game, but I think this might be the happy medium. Thursday night games have a tendency to stay well under, but with two high-powered offenses like this it’s tough to believe in that trend. While Buffalo had a big day on offense in Week 1, it came against arguably the worst defense in football so that needs to be taken with a grain of salt.

And Miami came out flat on Sunday, likely distracted by the Tyreek Hill incident, and just starting slowly as much of the league did. But I think they can bounce back from that performance here against a Bills defense that should have issues all season. Buffalo is now without their two most important second-level defenders in Matt Milano and Taron Johnson, so a Miami offense that will be more pass-heavy due to backfield injuries should carve them up. This may well turn into a shootout, but I think the team with the easiest path to points will be the Dolphins.

Bonus Prop Picks (Odds via DraftKings)

1 Unit – Josh Allen Over 246.5 Passing Yards (-110)

0.75 Unit – Tua Tagovailoa Over 33.5 Pass Attempts (-110)

0.5 Unit – Jaylen Waddle Over 63.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

NCAA Football (0.5 Unit) Arizona State @ Texas State ML (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on ESPN

Anyone who has watched Arizona State start 2-0 this season has seen a very fortunate team that I think shows signs of trending in the wrong direction. The betting market has certainly noticed, with sharp money coming in on the home dog all week after a very suspicious number of 2.5 was posted as the opener. The Sun Devils fell apart in the passing game last week but were rescued by their workhorse running back, and that’s not something they can afford to repeat tonight.

Texas State is too dynamic offensively behind transfer quarterback Jordan McCloud and a ton of returning starters. I think they put up plenty of points against an ASU defense that broke down against a quality QB last week, and now gets its first road test. The Bobcats are an experienced, motivated team that has an outside shot at the CFP so a win against a P5 tonight would go a long way, and I think they get it tonight.

Degenerates

WNBA New York Liberty/Dallas Wings Over 178 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on Prime Video

When the WNBA does these quasi-doubleheaders with a day off in between, it’s tough to know if what you just saw is the actual reality of the matchup. These two teams going off for 196 points on Tuesday is certainly within their capacity to repeat, as the Liberty offense against the Dallas’ bottom-ranked defense is not a fair fight. With New York having a couple days off before a big game against the Lynx on Sunday, I’m thinking they look to run it up again here. And Dallas should be in for some positive shooting regression after a poor night from deep on Tuesday, so I’ll take a shot here that this one gets wild again.

Tiny Nick has gained +98.7 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.