Locks

NCAA Basketball (1 Unit) Wake Forest @ Duke -20.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN

The only bit of a negative feeling I get about this game comes from the realization of how few games Duke has left against the pitiful ACC. This number is a little lower than it was for Saturday when Duke thrashed FSU by 35 only because Wake Forest is a decent team on paper. Hunter Sallis makes them competitive against most teams, including when they made a valiant effort against the Blue Devils back in January. But these teams have gone in opposite directions since then, with the Demon Deacons really struggling when you factor in the level of competition.

I’m just not seeing how they keep up here, as this is an even more lopsided version of Saturday’s matchup that led to a blowout. Wake is one of the worst three-point shooting teams in the country, and are forced to try to score inside against this elite Duke interior defense. They also give up a ton of three-point production and Duke continues to be wet from long range, especially at Cameron Indoor. Ask the Seminoles how that combination of factors worked for them, and you’ll have your answer for how this game should turn out.

Bonus Bet (1 Unit) Wake Forest @ Duke -12.5 First Half (-110; Odds via Fanduel)

I’ll take Duke every which way but loose here, and that includes leveraging a big first half advantage. Not only have Duke’s past 8 wins come by an average margin of 29.5 points, but their first half margin in those games has averaged 16.1 points. With Duke still second in the country with a plus-13.9 average first half margin at home, this number is a discount in multiple ways. Wake might have kept the final score of that first meeting close with a late rally, but they were down 13 at half and I expect more of the same tonight.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Austin Peay @ North Alabama -6.5 First Half (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN+

Austin Peay has actually kept it close against North Alabama in both meetings this season, staying inside the 11.5 point spread that’s been posted for this conference tournament tilt. What they haven’t done though is be competitive in the first half against UNA, trailing by 7 and 11 points in the two meetings and using second half surges to close the gap.

That’s not surprising for a team that’s 316th in average first half margin but 222nd in second half margin. North Alabama meanwhile is 44th in average first half margin and has a plus-6.8 margin at home, important since the ASUN uses campus sites. After the Governors played a high possessions game last night their legs should be a little tired for the first half against a rested Lions squad, so look for them to trail by a big number again at halftime here.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Kansas @ Houston -5.5 First Half (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on ESPN

I’m sensing a first halves trend today, so might as well keep it going with the best in the business when it comes to winning the first 20 minutes. Despite Duke’s best efforts, Houston still leads the country with a plus-16.1 average first half margin at home. The Cougars have a chance here to make a statement against the preseason number one team, a ranking that looks dumber by the day but should still matter to the Coogs.

Kansas gave this Houston team arguably its toughest test in Big12 play with a double-OT thriller, and I’m expecting Houston to leave no doubt in the rematch. The Jayhawks have a lot more problems than what’s visible on the surface and on the court, so it’s a tough time for them to face a team that smothers visitors to the Fertitta Center early. This is the shortest first half number for Houston in a Big12 home game all season, and I see them stepping on KU’s neck as they bolster their case for a one-seed in a couple weeks.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Eastern Washington/Montana Over 145.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 10:00 PM CT on ESPN2

Metrics sites see this game getting into the 150’s and I would have to agree. This is a big game for Montana after they blew a chance to lock up the regular season Big Sky title with a bad loss on Saturday, so I’m guessing they’ll look to bounce back in a big way and leave no doubt tonight. That should mean points are coming against a very poor Eastern Washington defense.

The Eagles are just 326th in effective field goal defense, facing a Montana team that is 7th nationally in shooting percentage and usually shoot lights out at home. E-Wash couldn’t stop them in the first meeting as the Grizzlies racked up 92 points, but Montana had defensive issues as well. The Grizzlies struggle to stop teams on the interior and that’s where the Eagles offense thrives. So with both defenses vulnerable tonight and Montana looking for a statement victory on national TV, this total seems much too low.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick has gained +66.1 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.