Locks

NFL (1 Unit) 2-Team 6 Point Teaser (-110; Odds via Caesars)

Green Bay Packers @ Philadelphia Eagles PK: 3:30 PM CT on FOX

If you listened to my podcast this week, you heard a lot of love for the Eagles both in the short term and long term. For today, I think they’re a great bet to win this game over a Packers team facing plenty of challenges. Not the least of those is Green Bay being a little overinflated, as they’ve gone 1-4 straight up this season against teams with a better record than them.

They don’t beat the good teams, and the Eagles are an easy choice for best – and healthiest – roster in the NFL. The Packers might be a top-5 defense by EPA/play, but they’re 23rd in success rate so they have to force turnovers. I think a conservative and methodical approach by Philly in this game, where their superior talent can wear Green Bay down, is the recipe for a win on the field and for this teaser leg.

Washington Commanders/Tampa Bay Buccaneers Over 44.5: 7:00 PM CT on NBC

I wouldn’t generally advise teasing totals in the NFL with only 6 points, but it’s the playoffs and options get slimmer. Plus, with just 6 points I’m crossing several key numbers including 45 which is arguably the most important. And these teams have it in them to get into a wild shootout in any game, as they’ve gone a combined 23-11 to the over this season.

I’m looking at two defenses that struggle to stop what the opposing offense does best. In Tampa’s case that would be stopping mobile quarterbacks, and Jayden Daniels’ dual-threat ability is what propelled Washington to its best success this year. But it’s no surprise that the Bucs put 37 points on the Commanders in Week 1, as that pass defense is leaky at best and Baker Mayfield is playing his best football. With playmakers all over the field, this one has the potential to go back and forth all night, so I like this adjusted over number.

NFL Wildcard Prop Picks (Odds via DraftKings)

1 Unit – Josh Allen Over 44.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Bo Nix Over 226.5 Passing Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Bo Nix Over 35.5 Pass Attempts (-110)

0.5 Unit – Marvin Mims Over 42.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.25 Unit – Javonte Williams Over 16.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Saquon Barkley Over 104.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Saquon Barkley Over 12.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.75 Unit – AJ Brown Over 5.5 Receptions (-110)

0.75 Unit – Devonta Smith Over 5.5 Receptions (-110)

0.25 Unit – Josh Jacobs Over 21.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Jayden Daniels Over 53.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

1 Unit – Zach Ertz Over 40.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.75 Unit – Bucky Irving Longest Rush Over 19.5 Yards (-110)

1 Unit – Jalen McMillan Over 4.5 Receptions (+115)

0.25 Unit – Jalen McMillan Anytime TD (+170)

NBA (0.75 Unit) New Orleans Pelicans @ Boston Celtics -4.5 First Quarter (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 5:00 PM CT on NBCS-Boston

It’s not something we’re accustomed to seeing, even though we’ve seen it much more than I would’ve expected already this season. That would be Boston losing a home game in embarrassing fashion to an inferior team, something you almost never saw the past couple of years, but happened again on Friday with a 17-point loss to Sacramento. Give the Celtics credit though because they tend to erase the memory pretty quickly.

There have been three instances this season where the Celtics took a bad home loss and had a home game immediately after it. In all three first quarters of those bounce-back games, the Celtics came out with a vengeance, leading by 11, 17, and 11 points after a quarter of play. Among the many reasons why the Pelicans are a mess is they’re dead last for average first quarter margin on the road, while the Celtics are second for home games. That’s a mismatch I’m happy to exploit any day, but especially when the Celtics come into the game angry.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick has gained +75.4 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.