Locks

NFL (0.5 Unit) Cleveland Browns @ Baltimore Ravens -10.5 First Half (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 3:30 PM CT on ABC

I’m surprised to see this low of a number hanging out there at Fanduel, so be sure to jump on it there since it’s out of line with the market. It probably won’t matter considering the non-competitive nature of this game we’re about to see, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Ravens leading by twice this margin at halftime. Baltimore is fully incentivized to play hard, especially early to establish a big lead, as a win locks up the division title.

Cleveland meanwhile is missing several key pieces on offense and will start Bailey Zappe at quarterback, so I don’t like their chances of scoring early on today. They won’t be able to run against the league’s best defense for rushing success rate, or throw against a pass defense that’s best in the NFL since Week 14 in EPA per dropback. Lamar Jackson also happens to be the most profitable quarterback in NFL history against first half spreads, and when his team is laying more than 6 points in the first half he’s 12-2-1 ATS. This should be a beatdown, plain and simple, which I see starting right off the bat.

NFL (1 Unit) Cincinnati Bengals -2.5 @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on ABC

This Bengals team is just too hot, I can’t help but back them in this spot. Cincinnati has the benefit of needing this win but not being able to scoreboard watch since they play a day ahead of the teams they need help from. That ensures that we get a full effort from Joe Burrow and perhaps the most explosive offense in the league right now, which Pittsburgh has already proven they can’t stop.

The Bengals put up 38 in the first meeting, but also couldn’t stop the Steelers from scoring like crazy. Pittsburgh’s offense has fallen off a cliff lately though, and the Steelers have far less motivation today as they’re already in the playoffs. Cincy is the cliché of that team nobody wants to see right now, and a Steelers defense that surrenders a lot of big plays should get victimized by the league’s rightful MVP enough times to give the Bengals hope going into tomorrow.

NFL Prop Picks (Odds via DraftKings)

0.75 Unit – Justice Hill Over 2.5 Receptions (-110)

0.75 Unit – Justice Hill Over 23.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.75 Unit – Pat Freiermuth Over 34.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.25 Unit – Pat Freiermuth Alt Over 49.5 Receiving Yards (+195)

1 Unit – George Pickens Longest Reception Over 27.5 Yards (-110)

0.25 Unit – Mike Gesicki Over 3.5 Receptions (+120)

0.25 Unit – Joe Burrow Over 2.5 Passing TD’s (+125)

NBA (0.75 Unit) Utah Jazz/Miami Heat Over 223.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on Fanduel Sports SUN

The Jimmy Butler saga and suspension cast a shadow over this game, but the teams still have to go out and play. That means we get a game where neither team can defend quality offense, especially Utah who checks in with the worst defensive efficiency mark in the league. The Jazz are by far the league’s worst road defense as well, allowing 1.177 points per possession away from home, and they struggle to guard the three which has become the focal point of Miami’s offense.

But as we saw Thursday night against Indiana, this Heat squad can’t defend either and tend to get into hectic, high-scoring games against any offense with a pulse. Utah can score well enough thanks to the kind of game their defense forces them into, and with a 12-6 record to the over in road games this season, I think their style creates another tonight.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) BYU First Half Team Total Under 28.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 1:00 PM CT on ESPN+

I don’t care how well BYU has shot it to start this season, I don’t care if they’re a volume three-point team that can get hot at a moment’s notice. You don’t go into the Fertitta Center and put up points before halftime, period. Nobody does, not even the best offense in the country, as Auburn found out earlier this season in staying under this same total with 28 first half points. The Houston defense is too good, leading the country in adjusted efficiency and holding opponents to just 22.5 first half points this season including 19.1 at home. Houston’s glacial pace also keeps the possessions to a minimum, so BYU would have to max out their efficiency levels and I just don’t see it against this defense.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Texas Tech/Utah Over 151.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN+

Things have not gone well for the Utes when they leave Salt Lake City, case in point Tuesday’s beatdown at Baylor, so they should be happy to be back home where their offense thrives. Utah is one of the better shooting teams in the country, ranked 37th in effective field goal rate, but that percentage drops 10 points when they hit the road. Their three-point percentage also takes a hit of 9 percentage points on the road, and as one of the country’s most three-heavy offenses that’s a big deal.

Fortunately for them this game offers an opportunity for a big bounce back, as Texas Tech is not the defensive team of previous seasons. The Red Raiders are particularly weak on the perimeter, ranked 250th in three-point percentage defense so Utah should see plenty of deep shots drop. But I don’t see Tech getting slowed down either as this offense is 14th in adjusted efficiency, 6th in effective field goal rate, and 13th in three-point percentage. If Utah ramps up the pace at altitude like they normally do, we should see an up-tempo three-point contest that easily clears this total.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick has gained +72.2 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.