Locks

NCAA Football (0.5 Unit) Notre Dame/Georgia First Half Under 23.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 3:00 PM CT on ESPN

I think we see a slower start in this game as both teams feel each other out and adjust to the changes around this Sugar Bowl. The game being rescheduled to today has to be strange for the players, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see both teams take things easier to start this game so there’s an opportunity to get in rhythm.

Slow starts are the norm for Georgia, as they’ve been plagued by poor first halves and are just 87th in first half scoring. It’s also a game where both quarterbacks are key to their rushing attacks, so I don’t see a lot of passing overall, and that should help keep the clock running in the first half. With Notre Dame ranked 2nd nationally in first half points allowed, I think defenses have an opportunity to be the story here and keep things quiet before halftime.

NBA (0.75 Unit) Indiana Pacers/Miami Heat Over 223.5 (-110; Odds via BetMGM): 6:30 PM CT on Fanduel Sports SUN

Two top-10 offenses in the league square off here, and I don’t think the market truly appreciates at least one of them. That’d be Miami, who has become an over team this season with a 17-14 record to the over. The Heat defense is still strong, but they’ve become a much more volume three-point shooting team this season which is fueling higher-scoring games for them.

Meanwhile, Indiana still has one of the best over records in the league at 20-13-1, even despite a stretch where their defense looked functional. That stretch appears to be done though, with the Pacers allowing 124.0 PPG the past 4 games, so Miami should be able to get plenty of points on the board. These teams have already met twice this season, putting up 235 and 229 points in one of those weird day off doubleheaders. So with familiarity on how to attack each other’s defenses and Miami being on no rest here, this one should get over a total I’m seeing as a bargain.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Green Bay/Wright St Over 154.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN+

Green Bay has turned into a meme thanks to the antics of their new coach Doug Gottlieb, almost deservedly getting run out on a nightly basis. The Phoenix have zero interest in defense, checking in with the 9th-worst adjusted defensive efficiency in the whole country. They also play pretty fast and launch a ton of three’s, which are always the main ingredients for overs in college basketball. I think they’ll actually have some success with that against Wright State tonight.

The Raiders are just 298th in three-point percentage defense, and 288th in adjusted defensive efficiency, so Green Bay will have the opportunity to put up points throughout the game. But Wright State’s offense is sneaky good, ranked in the top 30 for effective field goal rate and three-point percentage, so that Phoenix defense will continue to stand no chance. This has the potential to turn into another blowout at Green Bay’s expense, so I’m siding with the metrics projections that see this reaching the 160’s.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) St Thomas/North Dakota St Over 153 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on Summit League Network

I can’t look at a game like this that sets up to be a three-point contest and see anything but an over. It’s really simple: these teams will launch three’s all night long and not care one bit about anything else. Especially North Dakota State, as they’re the most three-dependent offense in the nation, attempting the most from outside and shooting it at the 3rd-best percentage. The Bison truly commit to the bit, as they also generate the fewest points from two’s in the country.

St Thomas probably won’t have any issue playing that style tonight, as the Tommies are a top-50 team in three-point volume and shooting percentage. They’ll also bring a more up-tempo approach to this game that counters NDSU’s plodding style, hopefully giving a boost to the number of possessions. The bottom line here is that the shooting should be at elite levels from both teams, and I don’t think relatively solid defenses will do enough to keep this from getting over the total.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick has gained +71.1 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.