A Western Conference Finals rematch is in store on Christmas Day, as the Dallas Mavericks and Luka Doncic host Anthony Edwards and the Minnesota Timberwolves at 2:30 p.m. EST. 

Dallas won the first meeting between these teams this season by six points back in October, and oddsmakers have set Doncic and company as favorites on Christmas. 

These teams are at very different points than they were a season ago, as the Wolves have dropped three games in a row to fall to 14-14 on the season – good for just 10th in the Western Conference (Minnesota was the No. 3 seed in the West last season).

Meanwhile, Dallas has won eight of its last 10 games (despite Doncic missing time during that stretch) to pull into the No. 4 seed in the West. The Mavericks rank seventh in the NBA in net rating thanks to their elite offense (No. 4 in the league in offensive rating) with Klay Thompson now in the fold alongside Doncic and Irving. 

Can the Wolves turn things around and get a win on Christmas, or will Dallas continue to build on the Western Conference Finals win from last season?

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, players to consider betting in the prop market and my best bet for this matchup.  

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

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Moneyline

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Timberwolves Injury Report

Mavs Injury Report

Minnesota Timberwolves Best NBA Prop Bet

Julius Randle has a little less of a playmaking role than he did during his time with the New York Knicks, but he’s still averaging 4.1 assists per game entering this matchup.

Randle is putting up 7.6 potential assists per game as well, clearing 3.5 dimes in 17 of his 28 games, including a seven-assist game against Dallas earlier this season.

The Mavericks rank just 20th in the NBA in opponent assists per game, so don’t be shocked if Randle finds his teammates for some open looks on Wednesday afternoon. 

Dallas Mavericks Best NBA Prop Bet

After a heel issue cost him two games, Luka Doncic returned to the lineup on Monday and dropped 27 points, seven rebounds and seven assists – in less than 30 minutes – in a win over the Portland Trail Blazers. 

I’m eyeing his rebounds and assists prop in this game, as the Mavs star is averaging 8.5 rebounds (on 14.1 rebound chances) and 8.1 assists (on 13.6 potential assists) per game this season. 

He had eight rebounds and eight assists against Minnesota earlier this season, and since returning from a five-game absence due to a wrist injury, he’s cleared this prop six times in seven games.

Over that seven-game stretch, Doncic is averaging 10.1 rebounds and 9.0 assists per game, recording three triple-doubles in the process. He’s a must bet at this number on Christmas. 

This is just the third time this season that Minnesota has been an underdog on the road, and it has posted a 1-1 against the spread record in the first two matchups.

Dallas has been dominant as a home favorite, going 8-5 against the spread with an average margin of +9.8 points in those 13 games. 

Minnesota’s defense was the best in the NBA last season – and it’s still a top-10 unit this season – but the offense has not gotten off the ground, ranking 23rd in the league in offensive rating.

That’s a problem against a Dallas team that has not only been red hot as of late, but it has been one of the best offenses in the NBA all season long, averaging the fifth-most points per game and ranking fifth in effective field goal percentage. 

Minnesota is just 23rd and 11th in those respective categories this season. 

As long as Doncic is good to go, I think Dallas is the bet to make at home. The Wolves have been way too inconsistent to trust in a hostile road environment. They’re just 6-8 straight up on the road in the 2024-25 campaign. 

Pick: Mavs -5 (-112)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey’s NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.