As much as he used to be a closed book, Tiger Woods is out in the open for those who have been reading along. Playing in the four major championships — in addition to the Genesis Invitational, where he serves annually as tournament host — the 15-time major champion’s 2025 schedule is basically written in ink.

While this has been the case since 2022 — a playing calendar with only major championships and a possible showing at Riviera — Woods’ appearance at the 2024 PNC Championship provided hope for more. Forgoing a golf cart in the 36-hole scramble tournament, the 49-year-old instead walked two rounds in Orlando alongside his son, Charlie.

This came on the heels of another back surgery in September, the sixth of Woods’ career. Tiger claims to have been freed of the spasms that hindered his play throughout 2024. Woods’ gait looked steady last week, and his physical endurance appeared to be at its highest since he was seriously injured and hospitalized following a single-car crash in February 2021.

Still, in typical Tiger fashion, he tempered expectations for his play moving forward.

“I’ve had a lot of procedures over the course of time,” Woods said. “I’m not going to feel what I used to feel. The recovery is going to be the hardest part. I can do it for a day here and there, but over the course of rounds, weeks, months, it gets harder.”

During this portion of Woods’ career — when making cuts at major championships are considered by some to be moral victories — his best chance at finding lightning in a bottle has been at the Masters. The reason is twofold: (1) his institutional knowledge at Augusta National gives him a leg up on the competition, and (2) the tournament has the longest runway of the four major championships.

The last few months of Woods’ season will go largely as expected. Health allowing, he will play at the PGA Championship at Quail Hollow and will have some vintage moments, but he will never seriously threaten the likes of Scottie Scheffler, Bryson DeChambeau and Xander Schauffele. 

Woods will receive a special exemption from the USGA into the U.S. Open at Oakmont — like he did in 2024 — but the beast outside Pittsburgh will prove too much. The Open is always a crapshoot, but if the weather turns wet and cold instead of dry and pleasant, Tiger’s prospects will only suffer.

Where Woods still has a chance to surprise some is across the first three months of his season and then ultimately at Augusta National. While it will be the most difficult walk he makes in 2025, the Masters will also be where he is at his best — physically and mentally.

Tiger will have the Genesis Invitational in February under his belt, and based on how his body holds up, perhaps The Players Championship as well. In a perfect world, he would make two stops during the Florida Swing. Any addition would be welcome.

Should Woods decide to skip the Florida Swing, he will get additional reps through the TGL just outside his home in Palm Beach. How competitive those reps will be is very up for debate, but he will nevertheless be hitting consequential golf shots (into a large screen and onto a rotating green) — and all of it will be televised. That can’t be a bad thing for someone like Woods, who will require as many swings as possible given he will play fewer events than all his peers.

The final variable in this equation is the weather in Georgia this April. Woods has faded over the weekend at the Masters in his last three showings and was even forced to withdraw in 2023 amid a downpour due to an ankle injury. Last year, the weather could not have been better, but a quick turnaround on Friday forced Woods to play 23 holes — one fewer than his season total prior to the tournament — which wiped him out. A friendly tee time would be even more beneficial.

All of this will be necessary — good health, solid form, nice weather and a preferred tee time — just for Woods to have a chance to factor at the Masters. A chance! If one is amiss, his lone opportunity to exceed expectations will be as well, and Woods will be left fighting on Friday instead of surging on Sunday, same as the last few years.