The Oklahoma City Thunder dropped their NBA Cup Final matchup with the Milwaukee Bucks on Tuesday night, but they rebounded nicely with a road win over the Orlando Magic on Thursday.
The Thunder will remain in Florida on Friday night to take on Jimmy Butler and the Miami Heat on the second night of a back-to-back.
Oddsmakers have set this game as a pick’em, as the Thunder are one of the best teams in the NBA while Miami is hovering around .500 through 24 games this season.
This is the fifth back-to-back for OKC on the season, and it is 2-2 against the spread so far in those matchups. The Thunder have also yet to release an injury report, which could move the odds in this game if a key player sits out.
Let’s dive into the odds, players to bet in the prop market and my prediction for Friday’s contest.
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.
Spread
Moneyline
Total
Thunder big man Isaiah Hartenstein has 12 or more rebounds in eight of his 11 games this season, averaging 12.3 rebounds per game on 21.4 rebound chances.
This is a great matchup for the Thunder center, as Miami ranks 26th in the NBA in opponent rebounds per game – even though it is 10th in rebounding percentage.
Hartenstein will have a size advantage on Bam Adebayo down low, and he grabbed 12 boards in 33 minutes on Thursday night. Trust him to dominate the glass again on Friday.
Yes, the Thunder have the No. 1 defense in the NBA, but this number is entirely too low for Jimmy Butler, who is averaging 19.4 points per game this season while shooting 55.2 percent from the field.
Butler has 18 or more points in 11 of his 19 games this season, finishing with exactly 17 points on two other occasions.
Jimmy goes through games where his field goal attempts are way down, but I think the Heat will need him to be aggressive from the jump if they want to knock off the West’s top team.
Oklahoma City is one of the best UNDER teams in the NBA, going 16-11 on the UNDER and ranking No. 1 in the NBA in defensive rating.
The Heat are a solid defensive team as well, ranking 13th in the league in defensive rating and sixth in opponent points per game. OKC is first in the NBA in opponent points per game.
Both of these teams love to slow the game down as well. Miami is 29th in pace while OKC is 21st, and I think this could turn into a defensive slugfest – especially with the Thunder playing the second night of a back-to-back.
The UNDER has hit in two of OKC’s four games on the second night of a back-to-back, and if they do end up sitting a rotation player or two tonight, it should only help this game end up as a low-scoring one.
Pick: UNDER 216.5 (-110)
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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Find Peter Dewey’s NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.
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