What could be the most important Week 15 NFL matchup isn’t a faceoff between division leaders. It doesn’t even feature two teams with winning records.

And yet, in a week full of notable games, there may not be one that could alter the playoff picture more than the Indianapolis Colts’ visit to Denver to take on the Broncos. 

No, it’s not the 10-win Pittsburgh Steelers facing the 11-win Philadelphia Eagles or the 10-win Buffalo Bills facing the 12-win Detroit Lions, both matchups on Sunday that could help decide the No. 1 seed in the NFC or keep alive long-shot paths to the AFC’s top seed. Yet those four teams have either already clinched playoff berths or are all but certain to. One month before the playoffs begin, meanwhile, both the Colts (6-7) and the Broncos (8-5) are still fighting for berths, and they could reshape the wild-card race and with it the bottom of the AFC’s bracket. 

Seven teams from each conference make the playoffs. The Broncos sit in seventh and the Colts in eighth. Denver is one of four 8-5 teams trying to hold off the conference’s two 6-7 teams on the outside of the playoffs looking in: Indianapolis and Miami.

It’s why Colts-Broncos carries the feeling of a playoff game in December. 

With a win, the Colts’ chances of making the playoffs would increase from 25% to 51%, according to NFL.com’s playoff probability tracker. A loss, however, would drop that probability to 3%, making this a de facto elimination game. That they are even in position to potentially make the playoffs wouldn’t have been expected in October, when the Colts were 3-3 and had benched their 2023 first-round pick, quarterback Anthony Richardson. Since Richardson was reinstated, Indianapolis is 2-1, with a pair of fourth-quarter comeback victories. 

The Broncos, one of four 8-5 teams in the AFC, can’t clinch a playoff spot with a win, but they can move to 91% odds of making the postseason, according to the NFL. A loss, however, would give them essentially a 50/50 shot. 

The Broncos have been one of the NFL’s most surprising stories.

One year after the Broncos moved on from veteran quarterback Russell Wilson to usher in their next QB, Denver and rookie quarterback Bo Nix have won three straight games and five of their last seven, all by double digits. Nix started his NFL career enduring a harsh learning curve, losing his first two games and throwing for just 60 yards in his fourth. But after he threw for 12 touchdowns and three interceptions in his last seven games, Nix now ranks behind only Washington Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels in NFL Rookie of the Year odds, according to Covers. 

Since 2000, there have been five seasons in which multiple rookie quarterbacks started playoff games. It could be six with Daniels and Nix. But both still have work to do to get there.  

For Nix, that includes winning a matchup Sunday that won’t ever be confused with the schedule’s buzziest matchup — but is perhaps its most consequential.