The beauty of this game we love is that even when a champion is crowned, the fantasy football season isn’t over — not just for dynasty leagues — we must stay observant to get a leg up in home redraft leagues or any other format we partake in each year. That’s why when the season officially wraps, Andy, Mike, and Jason start the offseason with the TRUTH series, which takes a detailed look at the top finishers at each position.

In 2021, only two WRs were selected in the first round, on average. The number of first-round WRs drafted started to increase over the next three years, culminating with more wideouts (seven) being selected than RBs (five) on average in the first round of fantasy drafts this year. The results of this season will likely move the ever-swinging pendulum back in the opposite direction, as RBs showcased their fantasy dominance once again, while a handful of early WR picks were more volatile than usual. But there were still game-changers to be had among the consensus top WRs, plus a select group of young up-and-comers that found their way into the top 10 at the position.

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To hear the TRUTH about the Top-10 WRs, check out the January 30th episode of the podcast.

Before we dive into our top-10 WRs, let’s review how the TRUTH algorithm translates to fantasy performances. Our numbers today will only correlate with Weeks 1-17, with Week 18 disregarded:

• Great Games = > 20 points
• Good Games = 12.5 – 20 points
• Bust Games = 7.5 points
• Missed Games do not count against consistency score

Age: 24.8 |  ADP: 1.06 / WR4

Consistency Rank: 1

1st Half: 4 / 2nd Half: 1

If you recall, before the start of the season, the situation in Cincinnati wasn’t all that peachy, with Ja’Marr Chase and the organization unable to reach an agreement on a contract extension. Chase didn’t participate in most of training camp, which may have dropped his stock, ever so slightly. He was drafted as the WR4, though he could have easily been the first WR off the board had the contract issue not been a part of the calculation.

For fantasy managers who were lucky enough to draft Chase, they were rewarded with the fourth most fantasy points by a WR ever. He is the only player, along with Randy Moss and Davante Adams, to record 17 or more receiving TDs in the last 30 years. The four-year pro became just the fifth player to win the WR Triple Crown, leading the league in receptions, receiving yards, and receiving TDs. He was the most consistent WR with the most 20-plus performances and only had one bust game. Only five players, all QBs, finished ahead of him in total fantasy points this year.

Simply put, Chase had one of the best fantasy seasons for a WR ever. And what’s more, the fantasy points per game gap between Chase and the WR2, 4.4 points, was the largest since 2018.

Even seven months away from the start of draft season, you can put it in stone: Chase will be the first WR drafted in fantasy. He very easily could be the number one overall pick. It will be interesting to see what happens with Tee Higgins, who helps open things up for Chase. But even if Higgins doesn’t return to the Bengals, as long as Joe Burrow is the QB, Chase can repeat this performance for several years to come.

Age: 25.6 |  ADP: 1.04 / WR3

Consistency Rank: 2

1st Half: 3 / 2nd Half: 12

It was a different season than we’re used to seeing from Justin Jefferson, yet he still ended up as one of the best fantasy WRs in the game. His 19% great games mark was a low in his five-year career, but his 75% good game number was a career-high. There were fewer week-winning performances but more consistency all around. He also was tied with Chase for the most end zone targets (18).

Jefferson had just two bust games, which both happened in the second half of the season, where his numbers fluctuated a bit more than they did in the first half of the year. That was due to several factors, including the return of T.J. Hockenson, the emergence of Jordan Addison, and the inconsistent play of Sam Darnold down the stretch.

For all the questions the fantasy community had about Jefferson heading into the season with Darnold at the helm, the stud WR answered them. Of course, QB play matters significantly, but the best players in the league will perform no matter the circumstances.

The mystery surrounding the QB position in Minnesota next year once again brings up similar questions. Will Darnold be back? Will it be J.J. McCarthy, who will be coming off a major injury in his first pro football action? But, the question of whether or not Jefferson can perform at a high level, regardless of who is at QB, was answered this year. He should be a lock as a first-round WR in fantasy drafts next year.

Age: 25.2 |  ADP: 1.06 / WR5

Consistency Rank: 4

1st Half: 8 / 2nd Half: 4

Speaking of consistency, there is no steadier WR in the league than Amon-Ra St. Brown. He has been the model of stability throughout his career and continued that trend this season. St. Brown’s splits were identical at home and on the road, and he performed slightly better against the top 16 defenses than the bottom half (15.96 compared to 14.64 fantasy points). He had just one bust game, according to our TRUTH model, tied for the fewest with Chase.

A true all-around player, St. Brown was featured all over the offense, not just in the slot like we had seen to start his career. He ran 48% of his routes from out wide, a career-high, and 51% from the slot, a career-low. And in a Detroit Lions‘ system blessed with several offensive playmakers, St. Brown once again stood out from the crowd. He had the most receptions in the league within the 10-zone (12 total) and nine TDs within the 10-zone, also the most in the league.

The biggest question mark heading into 2025 is the offensive coordinator change in Detroit, with Ben Johnson taking the head coaching job in Chicago. Savvy fantasy managers pay close attention to coordinator changes, but as the fellas pointed out on the show, ARSB is one player you don’t need to worry about when a new coordinator enters the fray. St. Brown has proven he’s as dependable as they come, and that should remain the same in 2025 and beyond.

Age: 22.2 |  ADP: 9.09 / WR47

Consistency Rank: 8

1st Half: 9 / 2nd Half: 11

Drafted as the WR47 off the board, rookie sensation Brian Thomas Jr. finished as the WR4 and put up a higher percentage of great games than Jefferson and St. Brown. Like rookies typically do, Thomas Jr. got better as the season progressed, stringing together six consecutive games of 12.6 fantasy points or more down the stretch.

As Jason pointed out on the show, Thomas Jr. hit his stride after the bye week in Week 12 and was the number one most consistent WR from Week 13 until the end of the season. He had double-digit targets every game after the bye week.  Yes, there were injuries to several other pass-catchers, including Christian Kirk, Gabe Davis, and Evan Engram, but Thomas Jr. put up these sensational numbers with a backup QB in Mac Jones.

Take a look at this mashup put together by our very own Kyle Borgognoni, who strung together every Thomas Jr. catch this season:

every brian thomas jr catch from 2024 📽️

(before your brain turns to mush this offseason and you forget how good he was) pic.twitter.com/rCCEqzFHMZ

— Kyle Borgognoni (@kyle_borg) January 14, 2025

With a new head coach in Liam Coen and a healthy Trevor Lawrence returning, Thomas Jr. should improve upon his impressive rookie season. Jason and Andy both agreed that they’d even take Thomas Jr. over Marvin Harrison Jr. at this point in dynasty. Congrats to dynasty managers who were able to snag him in rookie drafts last year. The sky is the limit for this dynamic young player.

Age: 25.8 |  ADP: 1.04 / WR2

Consistency Rank: 11

1st Half: 5 / 2nd Half: 18

Expectations were high for CeeDee Lamb after he put together a stellar fantasy campaign last year, but despite finishing as the WR5 with a consistency rank of number 11, the season could have gone way worse for the superstar wideout. Lamb was hampered by a shoulder injury midway through the season that would have sidelined many players, yet he played through it and played well. He was without Dak Prescott for the second half of the season, yet still put up respectable numbers with backup Cooper Rush. In fact, the splits with Prescott and Rush were quite similar:

One glaring difference was the amount of targets Lamb saw that were fewer than 10 yards (68%). His 8.3 aDOT (average depth of target) was the lowest of his career. This feels like more of an anomaly than a trend, with both Lamb and Prescott returning to full health next season.

A head coaching change in Dallas once again raises similar questions that occurred when Kellen Moore left as the OC after the 2022 season, but Brian Schottenheimer came in and Lamb actually had the best season of his career. Things should stay the same with Schottenheimer taking the reins as head coach, and Lamb should once again be locked in as a first-round pick in 2025 fantasy drafts.

Age: 29.3 |  ADP: 6.08 / WR32

Consistency Rank: 7

1st Half: 9 / 2nd Half: 9

As a Terry McLaurin truther and someone who drafted him in several leagues this year, I couldn’t have been happier for the six-year pro. Things started shaky with two terrifying bust games to start the year, but things got better and brighter from there, with just two other bust games the rest of the way, including one against the Eagles’ dominating defense.

Fantasy managers who invested in McLaurin got rewarded with a steady player who, despite never having a monster week-winning performance, had one of the safest floors for a 13-week stretch. The reality however, is a lot of his fantasy points came on the back of TDs, which we know is one of the hardest stats to project. Since 2000, he is just the 10th player to record 13 or more receiving TDs on fewer than 125 targets.

Additionally, McLaurin is the best in the league at catching “tight window targets,” where there is less than one yard of separation. He led the NFL in receptions (19), receiving yards (244), and TDs (7) on tight window targets.

McLaurin got to flex his muscles, finally, with a sensational QB in Jayden Daniels. But, considering all these factors plus his age, McLaurin could be the player on this list who falls out of the top 10 next year. It will be interesting to see where his ADP ends up when best ball leagues start to pop up in the summer (paging Betz).

Age: 21.5 |  ADP: 4.06 / WR22

Consistency Rank: 13

1st Half: 7 / 2nd Half: 23

The epitome of a target hog, Malik Nabers saw 170 passes thrown his direction, the second-most in the league after Chase. And he missed two games! The previous rookie record was 147 targets held by Garrett Wilson. His 109 receptions were the most ever by a rookie wideout, and he was the first read on 154 of his 170 targets.

Regardless of who was starting at QB for the Giants, it was established that Nabers was the first, second, third, and fourth option for the team, deservedly so because Nabers is an ultra-gifted WR who already showed flashes of brilliance in his rookie campaign.

Things started off hot for Nabers, as he was the WR2 through the first four weeks. When he returned from a concussion in Week 7, his fantasy points per game started to peter out, and he didn’t record a good game according to our TRUTH model for the next seven weeks. He didn’t bust often, but he didn’t give you great or even good games either. Fortunately, Nabers ended the season like he started it; on a high note.

Nabers’ value in redraft leagues will likely depend on who the starting QB for the Giants will be. But like Jefferson, Nabers is an elite talent who should flourish no matter who is under center.

Age: 22.9 |  ADP: 9.06 / WR46

Consistency Rank: 19

1st Half: 45 / 2nd Half: 5

As Andy put it to begin the discussion on Jaxon Smith-Njigba, his season was a tale of two halves. Smith-Njigba had just one great game in the first eight weeks of the season and had six bust games in that span. He ranked 45 in consistency in the first half of the season. Managers in redraft leagues probably accepted the L and moved on, but dynasty managers were sweating. Fortunately, JSN’s season turned around and did so in momentous fashion, with a blistering 36.5 fantasy point performance in Week 9.

From Weeks 9-16, JSN was the WR5, which included a bye week. He recorded five TDs and saw 9.1 targets in that span, compared to one TD and 7.8 targets from Weeks 1-8.

The future is a tad bit murkier for a player of JSN’s caliber entering his third season after a breakout. The Seahawks hired Klint Kubiak as their new offensive coordinator, as defensive-minded head coach Mike Macdonald has a preference to run the ball and rely on defense, which Kubiak will echo. Unlike St. Brown, who should excel regardless of a change at OC, JSN could be a victim of a new run-heavy offense. Geno Smith is also entering the latter stages of his career, so QB play could be an issue. Additionally, DK Metcalf is still on the field opposite of JSN and will continue to demand targets, particularly in the red zone.

Dynasty managers certainly let out a sigh of relief as Smith-Njigba got going in the second half of the season, but he’s a player to closely monitor when initial ADP numbers start pouring in this year.

Age: 23.5 |  ADP: 2.07 / WR10

Consistency Rank: 10

1st Half: 9 / 2nd Half: 14

The stat that immediately stands out for Drake London from our TRUTH model is the low percentage of great games he had, just one all season. While we don’t factor in Week 18 results into our model, Jason made it a point on the show to highlight his stats in Week 18, a 38.7 fantasy point performance in a must-win game for the Falcons with their season on the line. And despite the lone game of 20 or more fantasy points, he was at least putting up numbers that equated to good games. Factor in the four-game stretch where Kirk Cousins threw no TDs and eight interceptions near the end of the season; you have to believe London would have put up better numbers with a better QB.

It’s a small sample size, but in the three full games Michael Penix Jr. started at quarterback, London had 22 receptions, 352 yards, and two TDs on 39 targets. I just went over those numbers a couple of weeks ago as I contemplated trading London in a dynasty league for Kyren Williams and Christian Kirk. Spoiler alert: I decided to keep London.

London saw a spike in crucial categories this season, including career-highs in targets, receptions, snaps played, receiving yards, and TDs. He scored nine TDs compared to six total in his first two years in the league. With Penix Jr. cleared to start the 2025 year and a dynamic offense that features several other playmakers, London is poised to continue his rise.

Age: 24.5 | ADP: 2.01 /WR7

Consistency Rank: 17

1st Half: 12 / 2nd Half: 26

Similarly to JSN, there was a big difference in the first and second half of the year for Garrett Wilson, but in the opposite direction. Wilson was the WR3 through the first nine weeks of the season and had three great games under his belt to just one bust game. He was the 12th most consistent WR in the first half of the year.

But Davante Adams was traded to the Jets in Week 7, and Wilson’s numbers started to tumble. From Week 10 on, Wilson was the WR37 and had zero great games compared to four bust games. He dropped to the 26th most consistent WR in the second half of the year.

Wilson is a very good player but has suffered in large part from poor QB play since he entered the league. He is not as bulletproof as Jefferson or Lamb when it comes to playing with a less-than-stellar QB. Unfortunately for him, the QB situation doesn’t seem to be getting fixed anytime soon. Aaron Rodgers will likely be gone, the top QB prospects in the 2025 NFL Draft will probably be off the board by the time the Jets pick at No. 7, and the free agent pool is extremely dull. Word is that Wilson has also expressed his desire to play elsewhere. Unless there is a trade for a QB in the works or a trade for Wilson himself, the future doesn’t look as bright as it should for a player of his caliber.