With conference play heating up, everyone wants to find a diamond in the rough in the upcoming draft.

In order to do this, it has become increasingly popular to design statistical queries to identify NBA talent. While I updated an article to review the players who are currently meeting the threshold for my Productive Young Athlete query last month, which has a “stick” rate of 76%, the Productive Sophomore Query applies similar criteria to sophomores instead of freshmen.

Before we dive into the statistical analysis, it’s important to define what “stick” means in my study. In this case, I considered a prospect to “stick” if they played five-plus seasons in the NBA or are currently in the league.

There were 47 sophomores throughout the 11 college basketball seasons from 2010-2020 who played at least 40% of their team’s minutes, had a Box Plus-Minus of at least +9, and met the minimum athletic threshold of four total dunks. 70.21% (33/47) of those sophomores played five-plus years in the NBA or are currently in the NBA.

The purpose of this query is to find players who are still underclassmen (but not freshmen) that are being trusted to play almost a majority of their team’s minutes, meet a certain production threshold, and also meet a minimum athletic threshold throughout the season.

Read More: 2024 NBA Draft: The Productive Sophomore Query

As of January 10, 2025, there are six players on track to meet my Productive Young Athlete Query for the 2024-2025 college basketball season. All six players have a Box Plus-Minus that’s greater than or equal to nine, are playing 40% or more of their team’s minutes, are all sophomores, and have recorded at least one dunk. The minimum threshold of four dunks was lowered to one due to there being a reasonable amount of time to make up the four dunk threshold.

List in order of highest Box Plus-Minus (BPM) to lowest BPM

Miles Byrd, San Diego State (11.5 Box Plus-Minus)

Byrd is a 6-foot-7, 175 pound wing averaging 13.3 points, 4.4 rebounds, 2.4 assists, 1.7 steals, and 1.1 block per game while shooting 48.3% on non-rim twos (29 attempts), 36.9% from three (65 attempts), and 85% from the free throw line (40 attempts). However, it should be noted that Byrd is only converting 48.6% of his attempts at the rim (37 attempts).

Byrd is also recording a 3.5 steal percentage and five block percentage so far this season.

Tomislav Ivisic, Illinois (10.6 Box Plus-Minus)

Ivisic is a 7-foot-1 sophomore who’s averaging 13.1 points, 1.7 assists, nine rebounds, 0.9 steals, and 1.3 blocks per game and is the brother of Zvonimir Ivisic on Arkansas. The Illinois big man is shooting 86.1% at the rim (36 attempts), 45.8% on non-rim twos (48 attempts), and 35.9% from beyond the arc (64 attempts).

Additionally, Ivisic is recording an 8.2 offensive rebounding percentage, 24.6 defensive rebounding percentage, 1.7 steal percentage, and 4.3 block percentage.

Eric Dailey Jr, UCLA (10.3 Box Plus-Minus)

Dailey Jr is a 6-foot-8, 230-pound wing averaging 11.5 points, 4.4 rebounds, 1.7 assists, and 1.4 steals per game while shooting 69.2% at the rim (39 attempts), 44.1% on non-rim twos (34 attempts), and 42.0% from three (35 attempts).

Additionally, Dailey Jr is recording a 6.4 offensive rebounding percentage, 15.6 assist percentage, 3.8 steal percentage, and 1.4 block percentage.

Nolan Winter, Wisconsin (10.3 Box Plus-Minus)

Winter is a 7-foot big man for Wisconsin that’s averaging 11.2 points, 0.9 assists, 6.1 rebounds, and 0.9 stocks per game while shooting 84.2% at the rim (57 attempts), 33.3% on non-rim twos (12 attempts), 36.1% from three (36 attempts), and 80.6% from the free throw line (31 attempts).

Mason Falslev, Utah State (9.9 Box Plus-Minus)

The 6-foot-3 guard is averaging 16.8 points, 3.4 assists, 6.3 rebounds, and 2.5 steals per game while making 59.3% of his attempts at the rim (108 attempts), 42.9% of his non-rim twos (21 attempts), and 47.5% of his threes (59 attempts).

Additionally, Falslev is recording a 20.8 assist percentage, 4.6 steal percentage, and 0.7 block percentage so far this season.

Alex Condon, Florida (9.7 Box Plus-Minus)

Condon is a 6-foot-11 big man for the Gators who’s averaging 10.9 points, eight rebounds, 2.1 assists, and two stocks per game while shooting 63.9% at the rim (61 attempts), 33.3% on non-rim twos (33 attempts), and 40% from three (20 attempts).

Additionally, he’s recording a 14.3 offensive rebound percentage, 17.5 defensive rebound percentage, 13.1 assist percentage, one steal percentage, and 6.3 block percentage.

Conclusion: Why is this Useful?

The Productive Sophomore Query is best used when attempting to identify talent or when weighing the potential risks of drafting a player.

For example, if a college basketball player meets the four criteria during the season, then the player may be worth looking into. Similarly, if you’re considering a player with a second round pick (or even a first round pick in Filipowski and Clingan’s case) who’s met the Productive Sophomore Query, it may be a sense of comfort that 70% of players to hit the same criteria play five-plus seasons in the NBA.

This is especially important to take into account when you realize only 27% of second round picks from the 1990-2017 NBA Drafts ended up playing at least five NBA seasons with a career 10-24 minutes per game or over 4000 career NBA minutes. Regardless, thePYA query should be used in conjunction with film, other key statistics, intangibles and medical information when evaluating a prospect.

Regardless, the PSQ query should be used in conjunction with film, other key statistics, intangibles and medical information when evaluating a prospect.

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