Welcome to the Fantasy Football Playbook for Week 10, which kicks off Thursday with the Bengals at the Ravens.

This column features score projections, over/unders, win probabilities, and, of course, easily digestible fantasy advice for seasonlong leagues and DFS. This guide should help you with all sorts of decision-making, including sit/start decisions, last-minute waiver adds and lineup choices.

The advice is centered on 12-team PPR leagues with relatively standard scoring and lineup settings (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 flex, 1 K, 1 D/ST), although I’ll often mention “shallow” or “deep” leagues for some starters. The charts show all players who have been projected for at least 6.0 fantasy points this week, as well as all D/STs. “Matchup” is automatically determined using a proprietary metric that factors in raw and volume-adjusted fantasy points allowed to each position by the opposing defense this season.

(Editor’s note: Projections and rankings will align almost perfectly, but sometimes when a projection is close, a player might be ranked slightly higher or lower because of other factors, including upside or risk. This column is subject to updates during the weekend, although at the very minimum, rankings will be updated on the site and projections will always be updated inside the game leading up to kickoff.)

Jump to:
CIN-BAL | NYG-CAR | NE-CHI | BUF-IND | DEN-KC | ATL-NO | SF-TB
PIT-WAS | MIN-JAX | TEN-LAC | PHI-DAL | NYJ-ARI | DET-HOU | MIA-LAR

Projected Score: Ravens 31, Bengals 23

Lineup locks: Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, Derrick Henry, Chase Brown, Ja’Marr Chase, Zay Flowers

Mike Gesicki exploded for 100 yards and two touchdowns on six targets last week, which matched a career-high 27.0 fantasy points. The veteran tight end now has had at least 6 targets, 5 catches, 73 yards and 12.3 fantasy points in each of the past three games when Tee Higgins has been sidelined. That’s substantially different from his total receiving line of 8-71-0 on nine targets during the five games where Higgins was active. Gesicki’s Week 10 outlook is obviously connected strongly to whether Higgins is active — and he’s currently listed as doubtful — though note that with rookie TE Erick All Jr. done for the season, Gesicki will see some added volume either way. Assuming Higgins sits as expected, Gesicki will be a viable TE1 option this week.

Brown is a lineup lock with Zack Moss headed to IR. The second-year back soaked up a massive 27 carries and five targets while playing on 79% of snaps last week. All were career highs, as were his 157 yards and 26.7 fantasy points. Brown might defer a few touches to newcomer Khalil Herbert this week, but there’s no doubt he’ll remain in a featured role. Baltimore has allowed 3.2 yards per carry to RBs (second lowest), but also the fourth-most receiving yards to the position, which is an area where Brown can excel.

Over/Under: 54.4 (highest)
Win Probability: Ravens 77% (3rd highest)

Projected Score: Giants 22, Panthers 18