The NFL’s new kickoff rules were the buzz of the league’s spring meetings, when the league decided to opt into an XFL-style approach for a play that has devolved into a ceremonial fair catch. In 2023, less than 20 percent of the league’s kickoff attempts were returned at all. On top of that, league studies also showed that the play was dangerous when returners decided to field the ball, as concussion rates nearly doubled on kickoffs that weren’t fair caught.

Here comes the NFL’s new kickoff rule to save the day! Or maybe not. Before we get into the critique of this new rule, let’s fully explain them:

• The person kicking off will still kick from their own 35-yard line, but they are unable to advance past the 50 until the ball either hits the ground or the returner in the “landing zone.”
• The remaining 10 players on the kickoff coverage team will be lined up on the 40-yard line on the returner’s side of the field and are unable to move until the returner touches the ball or the ball hits the ground.
• The return team is allotted a minimum of nine and a maximum of ten (some teams will use two returners while others will simply use one) between the 30- and 35-yard lines on the returner’s side of the field. Like the kickoff coverage players, they are also not allowed to move until the returner gets an opportunity to field the ball or the ball hits the ground.
• If a ball is kicked into the “landing zone” (between the 20-yard line and the goal line), then the return team is expected to attempt to return the kickoff. If a ball lands into the “landing zone” and then bounces out of the end zone or is downed by the returner, then the following drive will start at the offense’s 20-yard line.
• If the ball is kicked out of the end zone without falling into the “landing zone,” though, the drive will start at the 30-yard line.
• One more thing: No surprise onside kicks until the fourth quarter. You can only do on onside kick before the fourth quarter if you announce it beforehand.

This is similar to the XFL’s approach to kickoffs before the league was dissolved into the UFL for the 2024 spring season, but there are some notable differences. First of all, the XFL’s kickoff was returned to the 29-yard line, on average, but the NFL also kept the kickoff at the opposite 35-yard line — five yards from where the XFL kickoff began. The XFL also set up their kickoff coverage team at the returner’s 35-yard line, not the 40-yard line, which could lead to the starting field position actually being further down the field.

So if the XFL’s average starting field position was the 29-yard line, and that number could increase, then why would teams make a minus-expected value play by kicking a ball into play instead of just booting it out of the end zone for a secure 30-yard touchback? That’s one strategy that sources have told me will influence special teams coordinators’ kickoff strategy. What if touchbacks aren’t being penalized enough and teams just keep kicking them? That’s one unintended consequence.

Another difference between the XFL and new NFL kickoff approaches is that there are no restrictions on hang time under the new NFL rules, meaning that kickoff specialists can simply pelt the football into the “landing zone” as hard as possible to create a ball that is difficult to field, allowing their kick coverage team more time to close in on returners, who are not allowed to fair catch the ball. As a special teams coordinator told The Athletic earlier this month, “Any ball that can hit the ground is now artificial hangtime. And so the rules are incentivizing variations of squibs and wild kicks. And it’s going to be a s— show.”

Sources have told me that kickoff strategy has essentially evolved into two camps in the NFL since the rules were announced: A) Teams will either kick it out of the end zone for a safe start at the 30-yard line, assuming that returns will, on average, be brought out past that point or B) teams that do assume that returns will be brought out past the 30-yard line on average will pepper the ball in odd ways that will make them odd to field cleanly.

Don’t believe me? The NFL just had to send a memo that barred footballs being laid sideways on kicking tees just last week, on the days most of the league’s training camps opened.

The Green Bay Packers’ special teams coordinator, Rich Bisaccia, who is well-respected and has served as an assistant head coach for five franchises on top of being the Las Vegas Raiders’ interim head coach in the 2021 season, claimed on Monday that he expects the kickoff rules to be amended, one way or another, throughout the preseason and regular season.

While the original rule changes were approved by league owners by a 29-3 vote, it now seems that the strategy that the NFL’s special teams coordinators will deploy to “win the down” looks nothing like the play that the owners were trying to incentivize. As Bisaccia put it so plainly on Monday before questioning whether alignment or touchback landmarks will stay consistent throughout the 2024 season, “Are you gonna play every ball? Are you gonna kick a touchback? What’s the new drive start going to become? If the drive start becomes the 30 and you give up two returns to the 38-yard line, the next one you’re going to kick it out and make it a touchback.”