By Michael PinaFeb. 18, 11:20 am UTC • 10 min

It’s NBA Expansion Week here at The Ringer, which means there’s never been a better time to conduct a hypothetical exercise. Today, we’re analyzing how all 30 teams would approach a theoretical expansion draft this summer.

An expansion draft hasn’t happened in real life since the Charlotte Bobcats were created 21 years ago. In that time, the NBA’s bylaws have changed quite a bit, but we’ll try to stick as closely as possible to that draft’s rules. The most relevant (hypothetical) details here: Every team gets to protect eight players who are under contract for the 2025-26 season, including restricted free agents and non-guaranteed deals but not player options. For teams that don’t even have eight guaranteed contracts on their books, I protected everyone and then, for this project, selected someone who’s on a two-way. 

All these decisions are subjective, from which eight players would be protected to who the hypothetical expansion teams would handpick for their rosters. Contracts matter and are strategically considered for both parties. For example, in this alternate reality, if the Philadelphia 76ers were REALLY desperate to get off Joel Embiid’s new extension and nobody wanted to trade for him, they could leave him unprotected in this draft and hope a new organization thinks building around Embiid’s diminished knees is a good idea. 

There are a bunch of ways to complicate this, but we’re trying to keep it as straightforward and fun as possible. On Thursday, the Group Chat podcast will conduct a mock draft using this pool, so be sure to check back.

Without further ado, here are my projections for which eight players all 30 teams would protect, plus the best available player they would leave unprotected. Enjoy! 

Atlanta Hawks: Kobe Bufkin

Protected: Trae Young, Jalen Johnson, Vit Krejci, Onyeka Okongwu, Zaccharie Risacher, Dyson Daniels, Terance Mann, Georges Niang 

The debate: With Georges Niang as the only other logical consideration, Bufkin is, unfortunately, the odd man out. Drafted no. 15 in the 2023 draft as potential insurance if the Trae Young era veered even further off course, Bufkin appeared in only 27 games in his first two years before he underwent season-ending shoulder surgery in December. Niang is 31 years old and ostensibly makes no sense on a middling team like the Hawks. But Atlanta has shown a desire to be competitive, and Niang’s outside shooting is a nice complementary skill set in Quin Snyder’s rotation.

Boston Celtics: Jordan Walsh

Protected: Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Jrue Holiday, Kristaps Porzingis, Derrick White, Payton Pritchard, Sam Hauser, Baylor Scheierman

The debate: It’s a tough call between Baylor Scheierman and Walsh, two of Boston’s most recent draft picks. But for a team that loves 3-point shooting and needs cost-controlled talent, Scheierman is too valuable to lose (despite already being 24 years old). 

Brooklyn Nets: Keon Johnson

Protected: Cameron Johnson, Nicolas Claxton, Ziaire Williams, Cameron Thomas, Day’Ron Sharpe, Noah Clowney, Dariq Whitehead, Jalen Wilson

The debate: You can flip a coin between Johnson and Jalen Wilson here. Even though Johnson is two years younger, he’ll also be an unrestricted free agent in 2026, whereas Wilson is restricted, on a slightly more team-friendly deal. 

Charlotte Hornets: Jusuf Nurkic

Protected: LaMelo Ball, Miles Bridges, Grant Williams, Josh Green, Brandon Miller, Tidjane Salaun, Mark Williams, Tre Mann

The debate: It’s unclear whether the Hornets would have gone through with the Nurkic deal if they had known the Mark Williams deal would be rescinded. Nurkic is guaranteed $19.4 million next year and makes zero sense on a rebuilding team. 

Chicago Bulls: Patrick Williams

Protected: Lonzo Ball, Nikola Vucevic, Coby White, Jalen Smith, Josh Giddey, Matas Buzelis, Dalen Terry, Julian Phillips

The debate: The Bulls would pop multiple bottles of champagne if an expansion team were willing to take Patrick Williams’s contract off their hands. 

Cleveland Cavaliers: Isaac Okoro

Protected: Darius Garland, Evan Mobley, Donovan Mitchell, Jarrett Allen, Dean Wade, De’Andre Hunter, Max Strus, Jaylon Tyson

The debate: The Cavaliers are about to have one of the most expensive rosters in the NBA, and even after they traded two role players for De’Andre Hunter, it’s possible Okoro won’t crack Kenny Atkinson’s playoff rotation. Getting off the $22.8 million he’s owed over the next two seasons would reduce Cleveland’s tax bill and make it possible for the team to duck the second apron in 2026.

Dallas Mavericks: Jaden Hardy

Protected: Anthony Davis, Klay Thompson, P.J. Washington, Daniel Gafford, Dereck Lively II, Max Christie, Caleb Martin, Naji Marshall

The debate: Surrendering such young, inexpensive talent hurts a little bit. But for a team that has a ton of pressure to win right now, Dallas can’t afford to let some more established players skip town. 

Denver Nuggets: Zeke Nnaji

Protected: Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray, Michael Porter Jr., Aaron Gordon, Christian Braun, DaRon Holmes II, Peyton Watson, Julian Strawther

The debate: It’s not the worst contract in the league at four years and $32 million, but when you consider how far the Nuggets are willing to fall before they plug Nnaji into their rotation as a backup center, it just might be the most regrettable. 

Detroit Pistons: Simone Fontecchio

Protected: Tobias Harris, Isaiah Stewart, Cade Cunningham, Ausar Thompson, Jaden Ivey, Ron Holland II, Jalen Duren, Marcus Sasser

The debate: He’s a solid player who complements Cade Cunningham, but at 29 years old, it makes less sense to keep Fontecchio than it does a younger, cost-controlled spark like Marcus Sasser. 

Golden State Warriors: Gui Santos

Protected: Steph Curry, Draymond Green, Jimmy Butler, Buddy Hield, Jonathan Kuminga, Moses Moody, Brandin Podziemski, Quinten Post

The debate: By process of elimination, there’s nobody else really in this discussion. Golden State’s top eight players are pretty locked in. 

Houston Rockets: Cam Whitmore

Protected: Dillon Brooks, Jalen Green, Reed Sheppard, Jabari Smith Jr., Amen Thompson, Alperen Sengun, Tari Eason, Fred VanVleet

The debate: This may be the most exciting player in the entire expansion draft. The fact that Houston can’t afford to keep him really speaks to how deep this roster is right now, and how bright its future can be. An argument can be made for keeping Whitmore and sacrificing a veteran like Dillon Brooks or Fred VanVleet, but losing someone who’s helped turn the Rockets into a winning organization and fills a pretty important on-court role could stymie the organization’s momentum.

Indiana Pacers: Obi Toppin

Protected: Tyrese Haliburton, Pascal Siakam, Andrew Nembhard, T.J. McConnell, Bennedict Mathurin, Aaron Nesmith, Jarace Walker, Johnny Furphy

The debate: Nothing against Toppin, who’s a solid reserve on a quietly deep team, but this contract is one Indiana can do without–especially if removing it from its cap sheet opens up more on-court opportunity for someone like Jarace Walker.

Los Angeles Clippers: Kobe Brown

Protected: Kawhi Leonard, Norman Powell, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Ivica Zubac, Derrick Jones Jr., Kris Dunn, Drew Eubanks, Cameron Christie

The debate: It’s either Brown (25 years old) or Cam Christie (19 years old). The Clippers would be wise to develop their significantly younger prospect. 

Los Angeles Lakers: Shake Milton

Protected: Luka Doncic, Rui Hachimura, Austin Reaves, Jarred Vanderbilt, Gabe Vincent, Maxi Kleber, Dalton Knecht, Bronny James

The debate: The Lakers can protect everyone on their roster who’s guaranteed money next season, leaving Milton (who’s on a non-guaranteed deal) as the best of the rest. 

Memphis Grizzlies: GG Jackson

Protected: Ja Morant, Jaren Jackson Jr., Desmond Bane, Jaylen Wells, Zach Edey, Brandon Clarke, Vince Williams Jr., Scotty Pippen Jr. 

The debate: There’s no good choice here. The Grizzlies have 11 players under contract next season and losing any of them would sting. Jackson is obviously the youngest and quite possibly has the highest ceiling, but it’s hard to even see him reaching his full potential in Memphis, where everyone’s job is to accentuate Ja Morant, Desmond Bane, and Jaren Jackson Jr. 

Miami Heat: Terry Rozier

Protected: Bam Adebayo, Tyler Herro, Jaime Jaquez Jr., Haywood Highsmith, Andrew Wiggins, Kel’el Ware, Kyle Anderson, Nikola Jovic

The debate: Does anybody want Terry Rozier? Someone? Anybody? Please? 

Milwaukee Bucks: Stanley Umude

Protected: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Damian Lillard, Kyle Kuzma, Andre Jackson Jr., AJ Green, Chris Livingston, Tyler Smith, Ryan Rollins

The debate: The Bucks can keep everyone under contract on their roster next season, which leaves 25-year-old Stanley Umude and his two-way contract as the best option available. 

Minnesota Timberwolves: Mike Conley 

Protected: Rudy Gobert, Anthony Edwards, Donte DiVincenzo, Jaden McDaniels, Rob Dillingham, Terrence Shannon Jr., Josh Minott, Leonard Miller

The debate: The Timberwolves need to start thinking about their future and finding smart paths toward developing young talent around Anthony Edwards. That makes the 37-year-old Conley (and his $10.7 million contract) expendable. 

New Orleans Pelicans: Kelly Olynyk

Protected: Zion Williamson, Herb Jones, Trey Murphy III, Yves Missi, Dejounte Murray, CJ McCollum, Jordan Hawkins, Jose Alvarado

The debate: As callous as this sounds, it’s tempting to leave Dejounte Murray unprotected. Sticking with an inefficient point guard with a torn Achilles who is guaranteed $86.4 million through 2028 is hard to rationalize. But New Orleans’ best path forward may be to wait until all its most talented players are healthy. Olynyk, on the other hand, is overpaid and expendable at this point. 

New York Knicks: Tyler Kolek

Protected: Jalen Brunson, Mikal Bridges, Karl-Anthony Towns, OG Anunoby, Mitchell Robinson, Josh Hart, Miles McBride, Pacome Dadiet

The debate: Between Kolek and Pacome Dadiet, the Knicks may prefer to hang on to the 6-foot-8 19-year-old with athletic upside. 

Oklahoma City Thunder: Nikola Topic

Protected: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams, Chet Holmgren, Isaiah Hartenstein, Alex Caruso, Aaron Wiggins, Cason Wallace, Lu Dort

The debate: Sam Presti is a victim of his own success. This roster is ridiculous, with Isaiah Joe, Ousmane Dieng, and Jaylin Williams all in the mix to be available. But we’ll go with someone who’s yet to make his NBA debut, the 12th overall pick in last year’s draft, a 6-foot-6, 19-year-old Serbian point guard who’s currently recovering from a torn ACL. Presti picked him, so there’s a decent chance we’re dealing with a generational talent.

Orlando Magic: Wendell Carter Jr.  

Protected: Paolo Banchero, Franz Wagner, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Jonathan Isaac, Jalen Suggs, Tristan Da Silva, Anthony Black, Goga Bitadze

The debate: This is a tough call for a Magic team that’s about to get very, very expensive. They obviously liked Carter Jr. enough to give him a three-year, $59 million extension, but without getting too deep into the weeds here, there are simply eight other players who make more sense for Orlando to protect, including the cheaper, healthier Goga Bitadze. 

Philadelphia 76ers: Jared Butler

Protected: Joel Embiid, Paul George, Tyrese Maxey, Quentin Grimes, Jared McCain, Ricky Council IV, Adem Bona, Justin Edwards

The debate: I flirted with letting Paul George dangle here—yes, his max deal is that detrimental—but the Sixers have only four guaranteed contracts on their books next season, so maybe giving PG some more time to warm up is warranted. 

Phoenix Suns: Bradley Beal

Protected: Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, Grayson Allen, Royce O’Neale, Ryan Dunn, Oso Ighodaro, Nick Richards, Vasilijie Micic

The debate: If anyone wants the worst, most untradeable contract in the league—and, quite possibly, in NBA history—please, have at it! Enjoy!

Portland Trail Blazers: Deandre Ayton 

Protected: Jerami Grant, Anfernee Simons, Scoot Henderson, Shaedon Sharpe, Donovan Clingan, Toumani Camara, Robert Williams III, Deni Avdija

The debate: The Blazers should be more active with their own rebuild than they have been. In an effort to protect everyone on their roster who’s young, inexpensive, and still improving, Ayton (or Jerami Grant) can go. And if I’m an expansion team, in a beggers-can’t-be-choosers position, desperate for any recognizable name to market my team for a year or two, Ayton is … sorry, I can’t do this. I couldn’t even finish that sentence with a straight face. But relatively speaking, there are worse options than adding this no. 1 overall pick. 

Sacramento Kings: Isaac Jones

Protected: Zach LaVine, DeMar DeRozan, Domantas Sabonis, Malik Monk, Jonas Valanciunas, Keegan Murray, Devin Carter, Keon Ellis

The debate: The Kings can protect everyone who’s under contract next season, so we’ll settle on one of their two-way players. 

San Antonio Spurs: Malaki Branham

Protected: Victor Wembanyama, Jeremy Sochan, Devin Vassell, De’Aaron Fox, Keldon Johnson, Harrison Barnes, Stephon Castle, Julian Champagnie

The debate: San Antonio protects its obvious top eight players, so we’re left with a debate between Branham and Blake Wesley as the only two players signed through next year. We’ll flip a coin and take Branham. 

Toronto Raptors: Jamal Shead

Protected: Brandon Ingram, Scottie Barnes, Gradey Dick, Immanuel Quickley, RJ Barrett, Jakob Poeltl, Ja’Kobe Walter, Ochai Agbaji

The debate: It’d be a shame to see a hard-nosed development project like Shead walk out the door, but after trading for Brandon Ingram, the Raptors have abruptly ended their rebuild and clearly want to make the playoffs next season. 

Utah Jazz: Jordan Clarkson

Protected: Lauri Markkanen, Collin Sexton, Walker Kessler, Isaiah Collier, Keyonte George, Taylor Hendricks, Cody Williams, Kyle Filipowski

The debate: Despite being their longest-tenured player, Clarkson is 32 years old and due $14.3 million next season. The Jazz, meanwhile, are one of the worst teams in the league and recently started an extensive rebuild.

Washington Wizards: Jordan Poole

Protected: Alex Sarr, Bilal Coulibaly, Marcus Smart, Corey Kispert, Bub Carrington, Kyshawn George, AJ Johnson, Saddiq Bey

The debate: Setting his shockingly efficient (relative to basement-level expectations) season aside, this would be a get-out-of-jail-free card for Washington as Poole carries one of the worst contracts in the league.

Michael Pina

Michael Pina is a senior staff writer at The Ringer who covers the NBA.