It might seem remarkable that in 2024, there is still an NBA offense centered around James Harden. The LA Clippers, after losing Paul George to the Philadelphia 76ers and Kawhi Leonard to injury, have turned theirs over to the 35-year-old Harden.
For now, it is working, if imperfect. The Clippers are 8-7 and one of the 10 teams in the Western Conference with a winning record.
It might have seemed as if this type of role might have passed Harden by after the past few years. As he aged, his output and his impact diminished. He was a clear sidekick to Joel Embiid in Philadelphia. His usage rate dipped even further once he got to Los Angeles last season. But as Harden said, memorably, he is not a system player; he is the system. That’s been true this year.
Only five players average more time of possession on the ball than Harden. His usage rate is back up to 28.6 percent, his highest since his 2020-21, when he split it between Houston and Brooklyn. He’s taking 4.5 more shots per game than last season, and his most shots-per-100-possessions since his last Rockets season. He is averaging 20.1 points, 9.0 assists and 7.7 rebounds.
The results so far, however, have not been any reflection of a late Rockets revival. The Clippers have the 22nd-best offensive rating in the league and are averaging 111.2 points-per-100-possessions when Harden is on the floor — which is in the 32 percentile in the league, according to Cleaning the Glass. It’s bleaker in LA without him, though; the Clippers are averaging 2.2 more points per 100 possessions when Harden plays than when he sits. Harden’s shooting, however, has been abysmal. His effective field goal percentage — 45 percent — would be, by far, the worst of his career if it stayed this low. He’s got the seventh-lowest in the league of 131 qualified players. Possessions that end with Harden as the pick-and-roll ballhandler are creating just 0.99 points per possession, which is in the 59th percentile leaguewide, and Harden isos are in the 49th percentile in points-per-possession, according to Synergy Sports.
Still, the Clippers are hanging on in the West and staying afloat in a very competitive conference after a win over the Golden State Warriors Monday night. They’re playing slow, limiting their turnovers, rebounding well and maximizing possessions under head coach Tyronn Lue. Harden had 12 points, 16 assists and six rebounds in the win over the Warriors but the story was, as it has been all season, LA’s defense.
The Clippers are shutting teams down. They’re tied for the sixth-stingiest defense in the league. Even Harden knows that’s what’s driving this team, even if he does have the reins again.
“We’re legit, and our defense is really, really good” -James Harden pic.twitter.com/iygRpMtLF0
— LA Clippers (@LAClippers) November 10, 2024
It’s early going but we’ve seen an interesting trend across the league so far: triple-doubles are happening more frequently than ever.
There have been 27 in 215 NBA games this season after Cade Cunningham and Alperen Şengün each had one Sunday night. That’s an average of a triple-double every 7.96 games, the second-highest rate over the last decade. Before Monday, the NBA was on a pace that surpassed the weird 2020-21 season, which has the highest full-season rate — one every 7.61 games. And since the last decade has seen more triple-doubles than ever, this is the highest frequency the NBA has ever seen.
Nikola Jokić is, of course, driving this. He is averaging a triple-double this season — his 13.7 rebounds and 11.7 assists per game lead the league. He has six already, and missed two more by a rebound or an assist in each game. Los Angeles Lakers star LeBron James has five triple-doubles and Detroit’s Cunningham has four.
The question now is whether this will last. We may be in a boom time for triple-doubles but they are still hard to achieve. After the record numbers in 2020-21 — again, a weird, atypical COVID-19 season — those numbers regressed to the norm over the last decade. But they’ve been ticking up since the 2022-23 season.
There’s a good reason. The rise in triple-doubles is likely tied to the increase in heliocentric offensive players. This year, 19 players have a usage rate above 30 percent. There were just five in the 2009-10 season. That season, triple-doubles happened every 53.5 games.
The Memphis Grizzlies and Golden State Warriors are in an interesting place this season. They are the only two teams without a player averaging at least 30 minutes per game. That is a rarity.
Every team has had at least one player do it since the start of the 2018-19 season. The last time the NBA had a team without a player averaging 30-plus minutes per game was 2017-18, when the Brooklyn Nets and Sacramento Kings didn’t have anyone reach their threshold.
We’ll see if this continues as the year goes on. Each team likely has its reasons for such long rotations. The Grizzlies have been hit hard by injuries in recent seasons; the Warriors have an older roster. Our John Hollinger just wrote about how both teams are using depth to survive this season, which included using 23 total players in the first half of their game last week.
Depth might just be a new strength for the teams that can afford to acquire it. Oklahoma City Thunder general manager Sam Presti highlighted its importance before the season.
“Depth, in general, is really important,” Presti said at his preseason press conference. “I think depth relative to the parity in the league that we see now is directly linked because the teams are so deep. But I also think it’s important for these reasons. Midway through the season last year, there was a change in the points of emphasis relative to the officiating, so we saw a much more physical game. We like that. We’re for that. We’re certainly not against that in any way. We think it’s probably better to have a balanced game.
“But you’re still introducing a level of physicality into the game every single night that’s going to wear anybody down. Couple that with the fact that the second half of the season is more compressed with less days off and more games, more travel days than we’ve seen in 10-to-12 years, and you’re going to see just the attrition of the league probably change a little bit more — but to get a better product, which is totally understandable. But I think depth matters there. The icing on the cake for all of that relative to the depth is the pace of the modern game is much different. So the days are the same; there’s still 24 hours in the day. There was always physical basketball. But the amount of torque on the bodies and the way in which — and how many possessions there are within a modern NBA game — is just a different load. That’s why I think the depth is important to all teams, not just to our team, and I think we’re well-positioned for that.”
The Thunder have had to test that already this season. Chet Holmgren will miss at least two months with a right pelvic fracture. Isaiah Hartenstein still hasn’t played after he fractured his left hand in the preseason. But Oklahoma City is as well suited as any team to withstand the rigors of the regular season. They’ve shifted to putting out small, but mighty lineups and have gone 3-1 since Holmgren went down.
(Photo of James Harden: Jessie Alcheh / NBAE via Getty Images)
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