The best roster in the NFL versus the league’s best quarterback. Two defensive wizards. Two offenses that hold on to the ball for a long, loooooong time, prioritizing efficiency and ball security above all else. This year’s Super Bowl will probably be a tight, low-scoring affair. Let’s look at the key questions that will determine the outcome of the big game.

Can the Chiefs slow down Barkley?

Barkley has put together one of the greatest seasons in NFL history. He needs 30 yards to break Terrell Davis’ all-time combined rushing record for the regular season and playoffs. So far, no one has found a way to slow him down. Behind a bulldozing Philadelphia Eagles offensive line, Barkley can churn out four yards per carry or turn a sliver of daylight into a house call in a blink.

To limit Barkley’s impact, the Kansas City Chiefs will need to force negative plays on first down. But figuring out how is tricky. The typical answer to slowing a great back is to crowd the line of scrimmage with as many bodies as possible. And the Chiefs do run five deep, with run-stuffing linemen who can cycle in and out of the game to try to control the line of scrimmage. But Barkley is a one-of-one talent. Somehow, he has been more effective this season against a crowded line than against defenses that have conceded some mass up front to protect against his home-run potential.

Barkley’s greatness comes from his stop-start quickness and vision – aided by a gigantic, mobile offensive line paving an open path. By adding size along the line, defenses hope to turn the run game into a series of one-on-one battles or force the opposing offense to check from a run play to a pass play. But Barkley warps the traditional logic. He prefers when there are more bodies up front; if he can make one defender miss, there are fewer defenders available further down the field to stop him streaking into the endzone. Barkley has forced 77 missed tackles this season and is already up to 54 runs of 10 yards or more. Forty-one of those explosive runs have come against defensive looks with seven or more defenders around the line of scrimmage, an NFL record.

That puts Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo in a bind. Everything is a trade-off. Does he stack the box and hope Barkley has an off night or that the Eagles shift away from the running game entirely? Or, does he back up and lighten the box, allowing Barkley to churn out easier yards but hopefully limiting the back’s game-changing runs?

Will the Eagles blitz Mahomes?

Vic Fangio’s defense has been the most consistent unit in the league this season. They stonewall the run. They limit explosive plays. They bludgeon quick screens, a core component of the Chiefs offense. They force turnovers at a sky-high rate. In Jalen Carter, they have a one-man inferno along the defensive line.

Underpinning that is Fangio’s philosophy: force an offense to drive the field in 15 to 18 plays. It’s not quite a passive bend-don’t-break system, but it’s not far off. Fangio plays with a four-down-and-go front, disguises his coverage on the back end, drops everyone out to space, has his players rally to the ball and then hit like a freight train. He has made subtle adjustments this year, but the foundations are the same as ever.

Fangio’s theory is that forcing an offense to drive the length of the field over and over again is mentally taxing. Eventually, he hopes, the opposing quarterback will make a mistake.

The logic is sound. The Eagles have forced 26 takeaways this season. And with their offense dominating the time of possession due to their overwhelming run game, opposing quarterbacks have gotten antsy against Fangio’s group. The clock ticks down, the quarterback understands he may only have a handful of possessions, he hunts chunk plays and then, BOOM, here comes a coverage they were not anticipating or a pass-rusher crashing into their face.

Mahomes, however, is built differently. He can play in structure or weaponize chaos. He doesn’t take sacks. He rarely turns the ball over – and he’s getting rid of the ball at the quickest rate of his career. With Travis Kelce, Xavier Worthy, Hollywood Brown, Noah Gray, DeAndre Hopkins and a rotation of three running backs, the Chiefs have a bevy of weapons to attack in any way they please. Andy Reid’s idiosyncratic scheming has allowed them to obliterate opponents on third downs to keep the chains moving. If the scheme breaks down, Mahomes can create a play all on his own. It’s hard to believe, even against an Eagles defense this talented, that Mahomes will gag the game away.

Fangio has an awful record against Mahomes and Reid. In seven meetings as a defensive playcaller, Fangio is 0-7 against the pair. His best effort came in Week 9 last season as the Dolphins defensive coordinator. In that meeting, Fangio flipped his approach. Rather than have his defense back up, Fangio blitzed Mahomes at the highest rate he has blitzed any quarterback in the last two seasons. And not any old blitzes, but all-out, oh-no, what-is-he-thinking blitzes. It worked! Fangio held Mahomes to 185 passing yards and the Chiefs failed to score in the second half of a 21-14 win, with Fangio cranking up his blitz rate after half-time.

Blitzing Mahomes is risky though. Ever since he stepped on the field as a pro, Mahomes has roasted pressure. Now, he is also the league leader in breaking down quirky zone coverages, the kind the Eagles major in.

How much will last year’s gameplan stick in Fangio’s mind? Does he want to blitz the unblitzable? Does he want to dare Mahomes to make a mistake? Overhauling his defensive approach for one game would be a gamble. Fangio has built the best unit in the league by sticking to the principles he has coached with for 40 years. But Mahomes and Reid have proven they can crack his conventional work. The Chiefs offense is always full of surprises. It may be time for Fangio to spring one of his own.

How healthy is the Eagles offensive line?

The Eagles will enter Sunday with injury concerns up front. Left guard Landon Dickerson hurt his knee in the NFC championship game and center Cam Jurgens is dealing with a lingering back injury. Dickerson’s backup, Tyler Steen, struggled in the NFC championship game. And if Jurgens, who is expected to start, is forced to leave the game, then the Eagles will have to move players around to fill the void.

Dickerson and Jurgens are key to Philly’s run game: Dickerson is a mauler, while Jurgens choreographs the team’s blocking mechanics. If either is limited or misses time, it will be a blow to the foundation of Philly’s offense. More importantly, the two will be crucial in picking up the Chiefs’ wonky blitz packages. Spagnuolo has the broadest blitz menu in the league. He sends heat from unusual angles, in unusual situations. No one has a better read on how an offensive line is trying to protect their quarterback and the best way to break that protection down.

Communication is critical to warding off Spagnuolo’s nonsense. If there has been a weak area for the Eagles’ much-ballyhooed offensive line, it’s been picking up different pressure package. They’re a big, front-foot group, that can struggle with the nuances of passing off different pass-rushers and sorting out any chaos in the passing game. Without a settled interior, the Eagles will be in trouble on third downs.

Then there is the Chris Jones factor. KC moves Jones all across their front, using the rest of their defensive alignment to scheme up one-on-one mismatches for their star pass-rusher. If either Dickerson or Jurgens are missing, Jones can feast against their backups.

Can Jake Elliott match Harrison Butker?

Let’s talk kickers! In a tight matchup, field goals will matter. A long bomb or two could tip the scales in a team’s favor, and playing in a dome makes for a favorable kicking environment.

The Chiefs have a clear advantage. Butker is the all-time leader in playoff field goal accuracy. He’s hit six of seven kicks from 50 yards or more in his playoff career, though he hasn’t been as accurate from distance this season. But Butker is a proven under pressure, kicking game-sealing field goals in all three of the Chiefs’ Super Bowl runs.

Elliott has been up and down. He is a career 60% kicker from 50 or more yards but has hit only one of his seven long-range attempts this season. The Eagles have the best short-yardage offense in the league, but if a drive stalls out, Elliott will have to match Butker make-for-make.

How will officials call the game?

The zaniest conspiracy theory in the NFL is that the league’s officials – and by extension the league office – are colluding to help the Chiefs, even if the numbers do not support that theory. The Collusion Believers have not yet consolidated around a single theory, which run the gamut from a dynasty being good for business, Mahomes being the league’s most marketable star and the fact Taylor Swift is dating Travis Kelce. Maybe it’s all three. The evidence? Bad spots. Cheap roughing the passer calls. Uncalled false starts. You name it, and there is no doubt a viral social media clip of a call going in the favor of Mahomes and the Chiefs.

The narrative has taken such a pervasive hold that commissioner Roger Goodell addressed it this week, calling it a “ridiculous theory.” The NFL Referees Association issued a statement adding, “Officiating crews do not work the same team more than twice each regular season. It is insulting and preposterous to hear conspiracy theories that somehow 17 officiating crews consisting of 138 officials are colluding to assist one team.”

The idea is preposterous. Have the Chiefs been on the fortunate side of some egregious calls? You bet. Are some of the playoff numbers a little fishy? Kind of, sort of. Sometimes, it feels like the Chiefs get more calls. But that’s probably because they play in more nationally televised games than any other franchise. When there is a bad call, they take advantage, because they’re the best team of their generation. Their figures are juiced because they have played in more postseason games than anyone in the league over the past three years. They have also had more coaching continuity than any dynastic team in league history – and well-coached teams do not cough up penalties.

And yet … the idea that the refs are working to help the Chiefs is out there. Officials are human. Will the narrative play on their minds on Sunday? If there is a 50-50 call, will they holster their flags knowing there is a spotlight on their performance? Maybe, fingers crossed, they will swallow their whistles for the full game, looking to head off any controversy.