With Week 2 now ancient history, it’s time for your analytically based power ranking wrap up to see who has improved, who has gotten worse, and who has simply started to regress to the mean. As always, you can check out Zach’s artisanal power rankings here.

What goes into Calculator? Basically, every advanced stat I have available, in addition to data based on net point differential, and the current Super Bowl odds from our friends at FanDuel. I run some formulas to smooth everything out, create a unified scale, and here we go! You can see the rankings week by week here.

This week, we have a new number one, a few big climbers, three playoff favorites who took a mighty tumble, and at least two rankings that don’t make sense. This should be fun!

1. New Orleans Saints: CALCULATOR: 115.04, Change from last week: -.05 – The Saints shoot past the 49ers and the Chiefs mostly by staying in place. In this case, staying in place involved demolishing the Dallas Cowboys. No team has looked more impressive to start the season, and the Saints lead the league in all major efficiency stats and saw their Super Bowl odds shoot from +5500 to +3300.

2. Kansas City Chiefs: 107.43, -8.57 – Kansas City had to hang on for dear life to squeak by the Bengals, but their league-best Super Bowl odds keep them in a solid second. They’re worth keeping an eye on as they’ve only been average by EPA.

3. Buffalo Bills: 103.58, 19.17 – The second biggest riser of the week. The Bills knocked out Tua and knocked out Miami en route to a dominant 31-10 victory. The Bills almost doubled their DVOA from week one to week two.

4. San Francisco 49ers: 100.41, -23.18 – The 49ers suffered some injuries, and looked flat against a surprisingly good Vikings team. Like the Chiefs, their Super Bowl odds (and a robust PFF grade) are keeping them in the elite tier, but their efficiency numbers look quite pedestrian. It will be interesting to see which direction they regress.

5. Houston Texans: 99, 15.29 – The Texans took care of the Bears, and in doing so, doubled their DVOA on the year as the Houston defense came to play. (Caleb Williams’ struggles may have helped a bit.) They now have the fourth-best Super Bowl odds of any team.

6. Los Angeles Chargers: 91.38, 15.34 – Here we have an issue of not being able to make reasonable opponent adjustments this early in the season. The Bryce Young Panthers have, so far, been one of the worst teams of all time, and so a 26-3 win over them shouldn’t count for this much. As it stands, the Chargers are third in DVOA, second in EPA per play, and are really only held back by their +4000 Super Bowl odds.

7. Minnesota Vikings: 87.07, -15.49 – It’s odd to see a team beat the 49ers and LOSE ground. Part of the issue is that outside of the amazing 97-yard TD bomb to Justin Jefferson, Sam Darnold was 16/25 with 171 yards. I’m still surprised Minnesota lost any ground though, as the defense got after Brock Purdy, sacking him six times and picking him once. The main issue for the Vikings was simply an unsustainably high DVOA in week one (72.8). It’s hard to go up from there.

8. Seattle Seahawks: 85.71, -11.24 – PFF LOVES Seattle, and the Seahawks still have the second highest overall grade trailing only New Orleans. Efficiency stats are split with DVOA loving Seattle (2^nd overall) while EPA is more mixed (8^th). Super Bowl odds are the real drag.

9. Detroit Lions: 80.37, -3.87 – Detroit’s EPA is actually in the negatives, after a shocking loss to the Bucs. Their Super Bowl odds are keeping them in the top ten for now, but it’s been a tough start for a team with real Super Bowl aspirations.

10. Baltimore Ravens: 75.93, 10.05 – This may be the strangest result of the week. It’s one thing to lose by a toe against Kansas City. That’s a 50/50 game against a Super Bowl favorite. It’s quite another to lose a game to the lowly Raiders, so what’s going on here? Despite the losses Baltimore still boasts a positive DVOA, and raised their DVOA from -11.3% to 14.2%, and their EPA from -.143 to -.039. More importantly, they remain +1400 to win the Super Bowl. For now.

11. Arizona Cardinals: 74.68, 35.64 – The biggest gainer of the week saw Marvin Harrison Jr score his first two touchdowns in an extremely efficient win that catapulted the Cards to 5^th in EPA per Play. Given how good the Bills appear to be, and how close their week one loss was, I suspect we’ll see Arizona climb further in the future.

12. Pittsburgh Steelers: 74.22, 8.63 – Somehow, despite a poor offensive line, Justin Fields, and Arthur Smith as offensive coordinator, the Steelers are 2-0. It’s not so much Mike Tomlin magic in this case as it is games against a hapless Broncos team, and the Falcons before they were sure Kirk Cousins’ Achilles could handle play action. They’re slightly above average in all major metrics.

13. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 70.19, -4.77 – Tampa takes a small step back despite an impressive win against Detroit. Two Jared Goff picks ensured a conservative game from Baker Mayfield would get the job done. They are, to their credit, seventh overall in EPA, just ahead of Seattle.

14. Green Bay Packers: 68.9, 6.74 – Whatever the Packers are now, it’s unlikely that is what they’ll be a month from now. After the disaster in Brazil, Matt LaFleur coaxed an outstanding performance from Malik Willis and his team. Green Bay is almost exactly average in the efficiency metrics, but a solid win has kept their Super Bowl odds respectable and bought time for the return of Jordan Love.

15. Philadelphia Eagles: 68.69, -1.68 – Somehow Philly still has the fifth-best Super Bowl odds, despite below-average efficiency metrics and the 21^st overall PFF grade. Their first two games have been ugly messes even if they did escape with a win in Brazil.

16. Cincinnati Bengals: 67.44, 6.78 – The Bengals, like the Ravens before them, were so, so close to getting it done against Pat Mahomes and company but lost on a walk-off 51-yarder by Harrison Butker. They have a 0 EPA per Play and a 1.9 DVOA, but Vegas still believers at +2000.

17. Atlanta Falcons: 64.85, 10.95 – As the Eagles did their finest Joe Barry impression on Atlanta’s final drive, the Falcons managed to steal one despite their quarterback not being able to move or throw. It’s no wonder Peyton Manning appreciated the ode to his Denver career so much on the Manningcast. Kirk’s numbers look downright respectable now given the state of NFL offense, the running game hummed, and Atlanta climbed to 13^th in DVOA.

18. Dallas Cowboys: 64.63, -38.76: Our biggest faller of the week. After being absolutely torched by the Saints, Mike McCarthy’s seat is getting pretty hot. Derek Carr didn’t even have to do anything as Alvin Kamara was un-tackle-able, and on the other side, Dak Prescott threw two picks and put another ball on the ground. The Cowboys have a slightly positive DVOA, but they’re 26^th in EPA per Play. Vegas still believes to the tune of +2000.

19. New York Jets: 63.16, 12.89 – Vegas loves Aaron Rodgers (+2200), but they’re still below average in everything else, and a narrow win over a bad Titans team that required a big Braelon Allen 20-yard TD run and ended with the Titans knocking on the door at the Jets’ 14-yard line, is hardly convincing.

20. New England Patriots: 57.09, -9.96 – This seems like a heavy penalty for an overtime loss to a Seattle team that PFF loves so dearly, but the Pats were outgained 358-310, and Jacoby Brissett was just a game manager. The Pats can, if nothing else, run the ball, and they are Even Steven in both DVOA and EPA. Their biggest problem is simply that no one believes in them as they have the fourth-worst Super Bowl odds, and if you don’t believe in them, they can’t get the sleigh off the ground. I think that’s how that works.

21. Jacksonville Jaguars: 54.76, .17 – The NFL’s most boring team gets its most boring ranking. Not good enough to be threatening, not bad enough to be funny, just totally bleh. I’m not even going to look up if they won or lost, they’re below average in all metrics and even have boring-as-hell Super Bowl Odds at +6500. I feel like if we shorted the Jags with all of the money in the US, we could make enough to pay off the national debt. I think that’s how gambling works.

22. Chicago Bears: 50.88, -8.81 – Hoo boy, that ain’t good. On the surface, a narrow loss to the Texans doesn’t seem so bad, but on the other hand, the Bears’ trade to the Panthers that allowed them to pick Bryce Young, and for the Bears to nab Caleb Williams, has worked out well by taking attention away from how bad Williams has been. And of course, they all could have avoided this issue by drafting Stroud, who Houston used to beat the Bears. Karma. I think that’s how karma works. The Bears are average in most things but 24^th in DVOA. Also, they are +5500 to win the Super Bowl and we should probably short them too.

23. Indianapolis Colts: 49.14, -5.87 – The Packers are still gaining rushing yards against the Colts as we speak. They’re right about 23^rd in all of the components of this metric.

24. Cleveland Browns: 46.16, 14.83 – The owners of the worst contract in NFL history shoot up the charts from 29^th to 25^th on the strength of a solid victory against…wait, who did they play again? UGH, the Jaguars, dammit, I was really trying not to see that, curse the fact that all NFL games contain two teams as participants. Also, good lord, how are the Jags way up there at 21? Deshaun Watson awfulled his way to victory with 186 passing yards and a rushing score. The Jaguars helped. The Browns are +5000 to win the Super Bowl despite being terrible.

25. Miami Dolphins: 45.33, -26.91 – The Dolphins are in a heap of trouble, though they did make a savvy trade for Tyler Huntley, who is more mobile than Tua, and about as accurate as Tua, but doesn’t get the ball out as quickly as Tua, and has, unfortunately, the same arm as Tua. The Dolphins are 28^th in EPA per Play and would be lower if not for their +4000 Super Bowl odds.

26. Tennessee Titans: 44.53, -.2 – While Malik Willis was out beating the Colts, Will Levis took four sacks, and lost a fumble, and threw a pick. Worst of all, in doing so he allowed Aaron Rodgers to win a game. For shame. The Tennessee running game was almost as inefficient as the passing game, and let’s not forget that they not only allowed Aaron Rodgers to win a game, but also the Bears last week. Despicable. Their EPA isn’t too bad at right around average, but PFF and Vegas both despise the Titans. And so do I.

27. Las Vegas Raiders: 41.42, 3.95 – It seems like the plucky Raiders should be higher after their thrilling victory over the Ravens, but they couldn’t really run the ball, and Gardner Minshew was sacked five times, and most importantly, the Raiders benefitted from 11 penalties for 109 yards against Baltimore, versus just 3-15 against Las Vegas. This included a PI penalty against Baltimore’s Brandon Stephen while covering Davante Adams which turned a fourth and sixteen into a one-yard touchdown to Adams on the next play, with under 4:00 remaining in the game. Basically, the Raiders got lucky. They still suck. And they’re 27^th in EPA per Play with +12000 Super Bowl odds.

28. Washington Commanders: 39.17, 9.83 – Washington goes from incredibly bad (29^th last week) to incredibly bad (28^th) by virtue of knocking off the New York Football Giants, and in doing so, became the first team in NFL history to give up three touchdowns, score zero touchdowns, and still win the game. Jayden Daniels won some sort of rookie of the week award last week somehow. This week he rushed for 44 yards and got sacked five times. Have I mentioned that offense is down in the NFL this year? Washington has the league’s third-worst DVOA and fourth-worst PFF grade.

29. Los Angeles Rams: 35.53, -19.55 – Only the Cowboys, Dolphins, and 49ers fell harder than the Rams, who lost basically all of their good players to injury in this game, except for poor Matthew Stafford. In fairness, the Cardinals do look like a pretty formidable team, but it’s never good to lose by 31 points, and their -.281 EPA per Play is the third-worst in football.

30. New York Giants: 32.8, 17.57 – The Giants actually gained the third most this week, screaming past the Broncos into 30^th, almost entirely on the strength of rookie receiver Malik Nabers who caught 10/18 targets for 127 yards and a score. Imagine how good he would be if he had fallen just a bit further in the draft and instead of Daniel Jones he has Will Levis…wait, no, how about dead-armed-legged Kirk Cousins…uhm, oh, the Bears then, wait, so the how about the Jets…dammit, then the Broncos, then the Gardner Minshew Raiders…man, that guy was doomed.

31. Denver Broncos: 30.39, 5.66 – In college at Oregon Bo Nix had an ADOT of 6.8, by far the lowest of his draft class. The NFL has been much of the same (though he has pushed the ball more than Williams and Daniels, to be fair), but with way more interceptions. Bo has four of those and has yet to hit paydirt. In any other season, the Broncos would have the worst DVOA and the worst PFF grade and the worst Super Bowl odds, but this is 2024, and this is a special year.

32. Carolina Panthers: 4.78, 4.04 – My dad used to like to say, “You can’t fall off the floor,” and now we have empirical proof. The scale I have invented here for C.A.L.C.U.L.A.T.O.R. theoretically goes to 0, but that was always supposed to remain theoretical. And then Carolina came along and bam, posted a -93.2 DVOA in Week One. They’re now sitting pretty at -80.5 for the season, they have the worst PFF grade, and their EPA per play (-.635) is twice as bad as the Giants (-.311). If the Panthers roar back and win the Super Bowl under Andy Dalton, a $100 bet will get you a cool $70,000. I don’t think I’ve ever seen that before from a team that hasn’t been mathematically eliminated from contention yet. Very impressive.