Two weeks after contemplating going full George Costanza, two consecutive excellent weeks for the column have me feeling like I’m back on top of the proverbial gambling world. As is true with betting on and reacting to the NFL, things are never as bad as they seem, and things are never as good as they seem, either. Week 8 brought us the most dramatic play of the entire NFL season when Jayden Daniels’s miracle prayer was answered. It also brought one of the wildest witching hours of the year at the conclusion of the eight-game early slate.

The Steelers and 49ers are on a bye week, but the scheduling gods have blessed us with yet another eight-game early slate as part of the nearly full weekend lineup. That includes two matchups between teams with winning records, as the Ravens host the Broncos and the Packers host the Lions.

Here are my thoughts on all 15 games this week, starting with Thursday Night Football. I’ll let you know which games I’m passing on, considering betting on, and have already bet on. All lines are from FanDuel as of Tuesday night, unless otherwise noted.

Thursday Night Football

Houston Texans at New York Jets (-1.5)

The rat line game of the year is here as Houston, who is currently 6-2, faces off against the 2-6 Jets to start Week 9. The Texans are entering this game with some setbacks, missing both Nico Collins and Stefon Diggs. Collins remains on injured reserve, while Diggs is out for the season due to an ACL injury. Despite their record, the Texans have only a plus-9 point differential, and their offensive performance has been subpar. They rank 28th in success rate and 19th in expected points added per drive, going up against a Jets defense that ranks second in success rate allowed and 13th in EPA per drive allowed.

The Jets are facing a challenge in the kicking game after Greg Zuerlein missed a crucial field goal against the Patriots. Special teams can play a significant role in close, low-scoring games, where every point matters. The Texans have the advantage in special teams DVOA, ranking ninth, while the Jets are 30th.

A key question in this matchup is whether the Texans can effectively run the ball against the Jets defensive line. With a lack of healthy skill position players in Houston, it may be difficult for the Texans to perform well on late downs, especially against the Jets secondary.

Even with Joe Mixon in the lineup against an average Colts run defense last week, the Texans struggled with their rushing game. It seems unlikely that the Texans will be able to score consistently, making them the underdogs in this matchup. Instead of betting on the Jets’ late-game management, targeting the Houston team total might be the better option.

Verdict: Bet Texans team total under 20.5 (-110).

Sunday Matchups

Dallas Cowboys at Atlanta Falcons (-2.5)

If there was ever a game for Dak Prescott and the Cowboys offense to get right, this would be it. Dallas had the second-highest offensive success rate in the NFL from 2021-23. This season, the Dallas offense is down to 17th in overall success rate. Prescott’s efficiency numbers are down and he’s built up a lot of his counting stats playing from multiple scores behind in games against Baltimore and San Francisco.

The Falcons defense has generated almost no pressure on the quarterback this season and gave up 432 total yards to Tampa Bay last week, despite the Bucs playing without their top two wide receivers. Playing indoors, Prescott shouldn’t have a problem sitting in the pocket given that the Falcons are 25th in pass rush win rate.

It remains uncertain whether the Cowboys will have Micah Parsons or DaRon Bland back in the lineup, so I’m focusing on the Dallas team total in Week 9. This total was bet up from 49 to 52 and with the expectation of points, I expect Dallas to score regardless of the game state. The Cowboys can’t run the ball, so they’ll be forced to pass whether leading or trailing. Dallas ranks 30th in net EPA lost from turnovers, which is pretty out of character for them as a team and a strong positive regression indicator.

Verdict: Bet Cowboys team total over 25.5 (-108).

Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (-6)

Tua Tagovailoa has a history of struggling against the Buffalo Bills, with Sean McDermott’s defense consistently getting the better of him. In eight career games against McDermott, Tagovailoa has thrown seven touchdowns and 10 interceptions. Buffalo’s defensive strategy of playing two high safeties to limit big plays forces Miami to be methodical in moving the ball down the field.

While the Dolphins may rack up first downs, they are likely to struggle in crucial situations and in the red zone due to Tagovailoa’s difficulties against McDermott’s defense. In Week 2, prior to Tagovailoa’s injury, Miami often failed to capitalize on yards gained due to turnovers or unsuccessful fourth-down conversions.

Despite concerns about the loss of Stefon Diggs, Buffalo’s offense has remained efficient and balanced. The Bills rank fifth in rush EPA per play and third in EPA per dropback. The development of rookie Keon Coleman, the emergence of Khalil Shakir, and the acquisition of Amari Cooper have strengthened Buffalo’s skill position group enough to challenge Miami’s defense.

Verdict: Bet Bills -6 (-110).

Las Vegas Raiders at Cincinnati Bengals (-7.5)

Does anyone actually trust the Bengals to cover more than a touchdown in this spot? Even in their consecutive road wins against the Giants and Browns, the box scores from those two games were hardly impressive. Cincinnati has yet to put together a stellar offensive and defensive game at the same time, and their inconsistency week-to-week is basically just a code word for mediocrity.

It’s too early to give up on the Bengals, as a 3-5 team seemingly makes a run to the playoffs every year in the 17-game, seven-playoff team per conference format. But where’s the impressive performance on the Bengals’ resumé to point to? Almost beating the Ravens and Chiefs is cool and shows that they can play up to anyone, but they’re also playing down to inferior foes. A good teaser leg, but not a good spread bet here.

Verdict: Pass, look to tease the Bengals.

Los Angeles Chargers at Cleveland Browns (+8.5)

The Browns are in a unique situation as they play their third consecutive game at home on Sunday. Jameis Winston led all Week 8 passers in yards, but he’ll face a much stronger defense when he goes up against the Chargers. While Los Angeles has had an advantage from a weak schedule so far, I would recommend being cautious about fully backing Cleveland. Despite Winston’s impressive performance against the Ravens, he also showed some weaknesses when he lobbed what should have been an easy interception to Kyle Hamilton on the Browns’ final drive. Hamilton dropped the ball and the Browns won after Winston came through in the clutch, but his high variance play makes him just as likely to lose a game.

Teasing Cleveland up to +8.5 is the best option teaser leg on the board since the Chargers struggle to separate due to their lack of explosiveness. I have no opinion on the side or total for this game.

Verdict: Pass, tease Browns up to +8.5.

New England Patriots at Tennessee Titans (-3.5)

The Titans are in the dreaded “week after playing the Lions” spot, which has become a brutal trend in recent seasons. Following Minnesota’s failure to cover against the Rams in Week 8, teams are 0-5 against the spread after facing the Lions this year and 14-24 against the spread over the last four seasons, according to Evan Abrams of the Action Network.

I tend to think these trends are quite random, but the physicality of the Lions seems to wear on opponents. The Titans special teams turned in one of the worst performances I’ve ever seen in Sunday’s loss to Detroit, and they’re now ranked 32nd in special teams DVOA. This game has all the makings of being played in a phone booth, with few explosive plays on either end. I’m assuming that Drake Maye will not play following his concussion in Week 8, which means the Patriots offense, ranked 32nd in explosive passing, will return to its early-season form with Jacoby Brissett. With Tennessee currently ranked 28th in the same metric, it will be hard for either team to score without short fields or turnovers.

Verdict: Bet under 38 (-110).

Washington Commanders at New York Giants (+3.5)

This is one of those games where everything in me as an NFL bettor says that I should take the Giants. This is the “buy low, sell high” game of the week. The Commanders are once again the talk of the league following their Hail Mary victory against the Bears, and the Giants struggled to slow down Pittsburgh in a closer-than-the-final-score-indicated loss on Monday night.

My personal projections suggest this spread shouldn’t be higher than 3, but I also don’t have much interest in actually betting on the Giants in this spot on short rest. One reason for that is the improved play of the Washington defense. The Commanders defense was one of the three worst in the first month of the season, but Dan Quinn has helped turn the unit around and they now rank 11th in success rate defensively across the last four games.

The reality of the defense is probably somewhere in the middle—better than the opening month but not as good as October would suggest—but that still represents an improved unit when compared to preseason expectations. One reason to be bullish that the last month isn’t a mirage: the Commanders rank first in pressure rate in the last four weeks.

Verdict: Pass.

New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers (+7)

Most people who model and project NFL games are struggling to comprehend just how bad the Panthers actually are. It’s remarkable that the Broncos closed at -13 at home last Sunday against the Panthers, covered the spread easily, and are now 9.5-point underdogs to the Ravens. I shudder to think how many points the Lions or Chiefs would be favored by if they played against the Panthers on Sunday. It would probably exceed 20.

The market has been playing catch-up with Carolina’s ineptitude, as the Panthers have lost by double digits in seven of their eight games this season.

The current Carolina defense is the result of taking an already-bottom-five unit and subtracting key players at multiple levels due to injuries. There’s no defensive line push: Carolina sits at 31st in pass rush win rate and 32nd in run stop win rate. Adding to that, Bryce Young will be starting behind an offensive line dealing with injuries, and he’ll be without his top two receivers—Diontae Johnson and Adam Thielen—due to a trade and an injury. With Derek Carr returning for the Saints, New Orleans should have no trouble completing the season sweep of the Panthers.

Verdict: Lean Saints -7.

Denver Broncos at Baltimore Ravens (-9.5)

Another week where the Ravens are a huge favorite and you’re asking yourself, “Do I really trust the Ravens?” The team that has now lost to the Raiders and Browns, but also blown out the Buccaneers and Bills. The team that one week looks like an unstoppable offensive supernova, and the next week has Lamar Jackson’s passes bouncing off the helmets of wide open receivers.

The Ravens are an enigma because the pass defense has taken a real step backward this season. Last week, you could argue it was a product of playing a ton of above-average to elite passing offenses. Then Jameis Winston carved them up. This feels like a spot where Baltimore grabs an early lead and completely suffocates Bo Nix in the first half.

Nix has played against two poor defenses each of the last two weeks and performed well, but his efforts against the Jets, Seahawks, and Chargers (in the first half) are more indicative of how I expect Sunday to go for him. Denver’s defense is legitimately good, but the Ravens have added Diontae Johnson and will be able to build an early lead on Nix and Denver here.

Verdict: Bet Ravens first half -5.5 (-115 at DraftKings).

Jacksonville Jaguars at Philadelphia Eagles (-7.5)

The status of rookie standout wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr. is key for this game. His injury was initially expected to result in a multi-week absence, but an updated report now considers him day-to-day with a chest contusion. With Christian Kirk out for the season, the loss of Thomas would leave Evan Engram as the only reliable receiving option for Trevor Lawrence.

The Eagles had their most comprehensive performance of the entire season on Sunday in Cincinnati. The offense utilized the under-center formation more, and Jalen Hurts effectively used the middle of the field in the passing game. It marked the first time all year that the Eagles’ run offense and pass offense were consistently in sync, and the defense finally created some havoc and turnovers after weeks of looking mediocre.

While there were many positive signs for the Eagles in that game, it is important to remember that it is just one game. The market has made the Eagles a favorite by over a touchdown following the win, but if Thomas plays, I will once again be backing the Jaguars as an underdog. Jacksonville lost the game at home to Green Bay on Sunday, but the final box score showed that the game was fairly close. Green Bay outgained Jacksonville 422-390, while the Jaguars averaged more yards per play. If Jacksonville can compete with Green Bay, I believe it can repeat that performance this Sunday as Doug Pederson returns to the city where he became a deity.

Verdict: Lean Jaguars +7.5 (-110), monitor Thomas injury news.

Chicago Bears at Arizona Cardinals (-1.5)

I’ve officially declared the Cardinals my stay-away team of 2024. I reserve the right to change my mind, but for the first eight games of the season, I have not bet for or against Arizona. That is not going to change in Week 9.

The Cardinals have managed to secure three of their four wins by a total of four points, all of which were achieved by scoring on the final offensive drive. While they may have been lucky based on the box score in their victories against the 49ers, Dolphins, and Chargers, I find it hard to support the Bears on the road. The struggles of Matt Eberflus, Shane Waldron, and Caleb Williams this season have been concerning. Williams has not shown enough consistency as a passer, Waldron’s lack of creativity is disappointing, and Eberflus’s game management has been questioned.

According to total DVOA, the Bears are ranked 17th and the Cardinals are ranked 19th, suggesting these two teams are pretty evenly rated.

Verdict: Pass.

Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers (+3.5)

The status of Packers quarterback Jordan Love remains uncertain following his groin strain in Sunday’s last-second win against the Jaguars. He was considered day-to-day as of Tuesday night and will be monitored throughout the week.

It’s remarkable to write this sentence now given how he was viewed when forced to start in Weeks 2 and 3 against the Colts and Titans, but Malik Willis is first in the entire NFL in EPA + CPOE composite rankings. It’s only 61 plays for the sample, but the downgrade from Love to Willis is not nearly as big as it was earlier in the season.

Just two weeks ago, the Lions closed at -3.5 on the road against the Cowboys’ decimated defense. Green Bay is considerably better than Dallas, and this -3.5 number shows how much the market rating of the Lions has increased. The most important factor in this game is that Jared Goff has to play outdoors, potentially in bad weather. The Lions’ first seven games have all been played indoors and Goff has excelled. His numbers aren’t nearly as good outdoors, generally. There are 10 mph winds and possible rain showers in the forecast.

Indoor Goff: 67.9% completion, 76 touchdowns, 20 interceptions, 3.8 TD/INT

Outdoor Goff: 63% completion, 106 touchdowns, 59 interceptions, 1.8 TD/INT

Regardless of whether Willis or Love starts, the Packers shouldn’t be an underdog of more than a field goal at home.

Verdict: Bet Packers +3.5 (-115).

Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks (+1.5)

This is a prime bounceback spot for Seattle at home after being embarrassed by Buffalo last Sunday. The market has seriously downgraded the Seahawks following that game. This game has suddenly become super high-leverage for both the NFC West and the NFC playoff picture.

Not only do all four NFC West teams have four losses, but it looks increasingly likely with the success of the NFC North and East that you’ll need 10 wins to make the playoffs this year. The Rams are a difficult team to accurately price. Not only is the offense now reaching full health with the critical return of Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua, but even the defense has consistently trended upward in the last three games since Sean McVay made some personnel changes. The Rams are fifth in pressure rate defensively, and Seattle has had major issues protecting Geno Smith.

Instead of betting on this game, I prefer leaning into the Rams’ potential upside. Los Angeles started slow last year with a 3-6 record before winning seven of eight to make the playoffs. The Rams have the look of a team ready to repeat a similar run, and whether it starts this week or in a couple, I want to be there for it. I already have a ticket on Seattle to make the playoffs, and I’m adding Rams +410 to my portfolio.

Verdict: Bet Rams +410 to make the playoffs.

Sunday Night Football

Indianapolis Colts at Minnesota Vikings (-5.5)

The market opened with the Vikings as a full touchdown favorite on Sunday, but the Colts were bet down to six-point underdogs by Monday. When Shane Steichen announced that Joe Flacco would start over Anthony Richardson—a decision I could write an entire mea culpa on but will spare you from here—the market further shifted toward the Colts on Tuesday, settling with them as 5.5-point underdogs.

The Colts have been less efficient running the ball when Flacco has played. The total for this game increased from 45.5 to 46.5 on the news that he’d be starting, justified by the Colts higher pass rate with Flacco compared to Richardson. Flacco is the ideal quarterback for over bettors because the Colts throw more, throw downfield more, and he’s also prone to turnovers due to his aggression.

The Vikings offense ranks second in EPA per play in the first quarter, a testament to Kevin O’Connell’s game planning and ability to call plays on the script. However, off the scripted plays, the Vikings offense ranks just 24th in the second half of games, as seen in their 30-20 loss to the Rams.

In other news, the Vikings traded for Jaguars offensive tackle Cam Robinson on Tuesday to replace the injured Christian Darrisaw.

Minnesota has extra rest, and this isn’t a great matchup on paper for a Colts offense that has struggled against blitzes. The under is the only way I’d bet on this now, and I’d consider playing the second half under or live under once Minnesota is off the script.

Verdict: Lean under 46.5; bet at 47; look to bet live under.

Monday Night Football

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Kansas City Chiefs (-9)

In its Week 8 loss to the Falcons, Tampa Bay showed that Baker Mayfield can still move the ball effectively without Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. However, the Chiefs defense will present more challenges than Atlanta did because of its ability to consistently generate pressure.

If Steve Spagnuolo plays man defense across the board, challenges the Bucs’ limited receiving corps, and can generate pressure, the Bucs might struggle offensively. The Chiefs rank sixth in pressure rate, and only Dak Prescott has more turnover-worthy plays than Mayfield this season.

Betting on the Chiefs comes at a premium, and while I won’t be placing a bet on this game, the key thing to watch is whether the Chiefs can find some offensive explosiveness against a vulnerable Bucs secondary.

Verdict: Pass; look to bet Chiefs second-half under as always.

Bets from this article made for Week 9:

Packers +3.5 vs. Lions (-115)
Bills -6 vs. Dolphins (-110)
Texans team total under 20.5 vs. Jets (-110)
Ravens first half -5.5 vs. Broncos (-115)
Cowboys team total over 25.5 vs. Falcons (-108)
Patriots-Titans under 38 (-110)
Rams to make the playoffs (+410)