Passing in the National Football League has reached a strange inflection point through four weeks of the regular season.

The leaguewide pass completion rate has never been higher, but it hasn’t translated to more passing success. In fact, the opposite has happened. The NFL is averaging the fewest passing yards per game since 2003. Longer drives, more field goals, and lower pass efficiency all helped keep games tighter and helped underdogs cover 11 out of 16 games in Week 4. It’s a vastly different NFL than even a few years ago, and that has to be considered when betting each week.

Week 5 brings about the first four bye weeks of the season as the Eagles, Lions, Chargers, and Titans have the week off.

Here are my thoughts on all 14 Week 5 games, starting with Thursday Night Football. I’ll let you know which games I’m passing on, considering betting on, and have already bet on. All lines are from FanDuel as of Wednesday night, unless otherwise noted.

Thursday Night Football

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons (-1.5)

Atlanta won on Sunday thanks to two non-offensive touchdowns after the Saints muffed a punt and threw a deflected pick-six. The Falcons also held up with a goal-line stand from inside their own 7-yard line in the fourth quarter. The betting markets aren’t really sure what to do with the NFC South, as the Falcons, Bucs, and Saints are all priced comparably to win the division by year’s end.

This matchup will go a long way toward deciding the division, but this specific game is difficult to project given the injury situation for the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay completely nerfed the Eagles offense on Sunday and will pose a significant test for Kirk Cousins on Thursday as Todd Bowles brings constant pressure and tests an Atlanta offensive line that could again be down multiple starters.

Baker Mayfield dominated the Eagles defense on Sunday with quick-release passes over the middle of the field, and the lack of an Atlanta pass rush should help the Buccaneers move the ball offensively. The Falcons rank 28th in PFF pass rush grades and 29th in pass rush win rate.

These are two teams that I’m generally less confident in than the betting markets. This is especially true for Atlanta, which could easily be 0-4 if not for some late-game heroics on final drives from Cousins and kicker Younghoe Koo. I liked Tampa Bay when the market opened this at +3, but now at +1.5, I’ll tease Tampa Bay and expect another close thriller.

Verdict: Tease Tampa Bay up to +7.5, pass otherwise.

Sunday Matchups

New York Jets vs. Minnesota Vikings (-2.5) in London

Welcome back, London football fans! As if our Sundays weren’t long enough already, we now have another window to watch our most popular sport. Outside of a dominant home showing on a short week against a shorthanded New England team, the Jets offense hasn’t been very impressive this season.

The offensive line’s inability to consistently protect Aaron Rodgers stood out in the loss to Denver, and the lack of depth in receiving options behind Garrett Wilson makes this offense a bit more limited than most expected prior to the season. Wilson himself has not lived up to the preseason expectations either.

Minnesota has by far the best defense in the NFL by DVOA. That should serve as a sell-high indicator, as not even the most bullish Vikings fan or prognosticator would have projected it as even a top-five unit. The Vikings have won and covered every week, and that, to me, serves as a signal we may be at the top of the market on Minnesota’s range this season. I won’t pay to find out either way.

Verdict: Pass.

Carolina Panthers at Chicago Bears (-3.5)

Chicago’s offense had its best performance of the season against the Rams defense, finishing the week 10th among all teams in expected points added per drive. However, given the quality of the defense they faced—the Rams are 31st in DVOA defensively—the fact that the Bears managed only 4.9 yards per play isn’t too encouraging as they head into a game they should (on paper) win against Carolina on Sunday.

The Bears secured the win and covered the spread by capitalizing on a Rams fumble and turning it into a quick touchdown. However, the Rams had more yards and first downs. This victory shouldn’t improve your opinion of the Bears, especially since they are favored by more than a field goal against a suddenly competent Panthers offense.

The Panthers offense has transformed from one of the worst in the league in the first two weeks to a solidly competent unit. The offensive line ranks second in pass blocking, according to Pro Football Focus, and the offense has averaged 6.2 and 5.4 yards per play in the two games since Andy Dalton replaced Bryce Young. Even though Adam Thielen was out last week due to injury, Carolina was able to effectively move the ball through the air. While Chicago holds a significant defensive advantage in the matchup, I am more comfortable betting that the underdog with the better offense will catch more than a field goal.

Verdict: Bet Carolina +3.5 or better.

Cleveland Browns at Washington Commanders (-3)

Trying to buy low and sell high is one of the most important principles of being a successful NFL bettor, and this game presents a textbook opportunity to do just that. No one wants to bet on Cleveland, with its struggling offense and beleaguered quarterback Deshaun Watson, against the most talked-about team of the first four weeks. The Browns currently rank 30th in EPA per dropback, and the Washington offense is first in the same metric. It’s very easy to see why Washington is favored to win this match.

However, I’d like to present a counterpoint. The Commanders have faced mostly weak and passive defenses in Jayden Daniels’s career so far. Matchups against the Bengals and Cardinals—who don’t apply much pressure and struggled to defend underneath routes—have made it easier for Daniels to adjust to the NFL. This is not to diminish his impressive performance in the first four games, but the Browns, led by defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz, will present a different challenge.

The Browns defense is still a top-eight unit in terms of success rate, ranking in the top three in both run stop win rate and pass rush win rate. In contrast, Washington’s defense is the worst in the NFL in EPA per drive, by a significant margin.

Verdict: Bet Cleveland +3 or better.

Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots (-1.5)

There are 14 NFL games in Week 5. You don’t have to bet on every one of them.

It’s fair to question whether a game featuring two teams with defenses ranked in the bottom 10 should have a total as low as 36.5. However, there are plenty of better games to wager on this week. According to market-derived power rankings, the Patriots and Dolphins are currently the two worst teams in the NFL entering Week 5.

Verdict: Pass.

Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars (-2.5)

Most people looking at this Colts-Jaguars matchup may wonder why 0-4 Jacksonville is favored over 2-2 Indianapolis. The market recognizes that Jacksonville has played considerably better than its record indicates and is only a few goal-line conversions away from being 2-2 or even 3-1. The Colts have not won in Jacksonville since 2014, and star running back Jonathan Taylor is dealing with a mild high ankle sprain. Additionally, Anthony Richardson did not finish last week’s game due to a hip pointer, creating uncertainty for the Colts offense early in the week.

Despite this uncertainty, the return of Colts receiver Josh Downs provides a significant boost, given his ability to add yards after the catch. The Colts have been throwing the ball down the field frequently in the first four weeks, but Downs adds another dimension to the passing offense, especially when facing a Jaguars defense that usually plays a lot of man coverage and ranks 31st in tackling, per PFF grades. If Richardson is back starting, the Colts should be able to continue hitting explosive plays.

The vibes out of Jacksonville could not be worse, either. Doug Pederson’s statement on Wednesday, “No, I have not lost the locker room,” does not inspire confidence. However, I fully expect the Jaguars to give their full effort in a divisional home game. If the offense can’t move the ball consistently against the Gus Bradley defense, it may never happen for them.

One important note: Both Jacksonville and Indianapolis rank in the top four leaguewide in pace (seconds per snap). With the combination of that and their bottom-10 defenses, the total for this game seems a bit low to me.

Verdict: Lean over 46.5.

Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans (+1.5)

Nico Collins is currently having a breakout season and is emerging as one of the top five receivers in the sport. However, something seems off about the Texans, despite their 3-1 record. The offense hasn’t been consistent throughout the season. In Week 1, the run game excelled against Indianapolis; Joe Mixon ran 30 times for 159 yards. However, since halftime of the Chicago game in Week 2, Houston’s offense has stagnated. It scored only three points against the Bears in the second half and managed just seven total in Minnesota in Week 3.

Just when it seemed like Houston had resolved its offensive issues in its strong first half against Jacksonville last week, it struggled in the second half, with five consecutive punts. Although C.J. Stroud led a game-winning drive in the final minutes for a key divisional victory, the Texans rank 23rd in offensive success rate and 14th in defensive success rate through the first four games, making them average.

The absence of Mixon (he’s been out for two weeks with an ankle injury) in the run game has been a factor, as well as the lack of sharpness in the offensive line and the uncertainty surrounding Laremy Tunsil’s health. The offense is also facing more Cover 2 defenses this year than last season, which could be contributing to its struggles. Even Jacksonville, known for its aggressive man-to-man defense, used zone coverage heavily on Sunday.

The Texans lead the league in the percentage of offensive plays against Cover 2 defenses, a significant increase from their ranking of 27th last year. Buffalo excels in playing Cover 2 defense, its preferred scheme for multiple seasons. The Bills struggled against the Baltimore run game and had difficulties covering the middle of the field, which plays to Houston’s advantage. However, Buffalo is currently operating at a higher level on both offense and defense, making it a strong choice against Houston in this matchup.

Verdict: Bet Bills moneyline (-108).

Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals (+2.5)

There’s a glaring issue facing Cincinnati ahead of this key divisional matchup with the Ravens: How will the Bengals stop the Ravens’ run game? Predicting NFL games is almost never as simple as “Good run offense runs all over bad run defense,” but the Bengals’ defensive line has been abysmal against the run all season. It ranks 32nd in rushing success rate allowed and 26th in adjusted defensive line yards. Baltimore is fourth in rushing success rate offensively. The Ravens just showed at home on Sunday night against the Bills what their offense can do to teams who are a bit soft up front and vulnerable in the middle.

The market briefly touched Ravens -3, and it was bought back by Cincinnati money immediately. The total was steamed up early in the week and has also faced resistance. The total was as high as 50.5 and has been bet down to 48.

While most of the NFL is seeing a dip in scoring and offensive efficiency, Cincinnati’s offense is firing on all cylinders, and Joe Burrow’s ability to throw on this secondary should keep the Bengals in the game. Cincinnati ranks second, behind only Washington, in EPA per drive, and the offense will be able to score enough to keep this game in true coin-flip territory.

Verdict: Tease Bengals up to +8.5; bet Cincinnati team total over 23.5 (-122 at DraftKings).

Las Vegas Raiders at Denver Broncos (-2.5)

Does anyone really want lay points with a Bo Nix passing offense that managed to accumulate only 60 passing yards in the game against the Jets on Sunday? While the Broncos won’t face the Jets on the road in a rainstorm every week, it’s worth noting that the Denver offense currently ranks 31st in total plays of 10-plus yards after four weeks. With their reluctance to throw the ball, it’s unclear how they plan to move it more efficiently in the future.

Nix had three turnover-worthy plays in Week 1, but he has had just two in the past three weeks combined. He’s the ultimate low-risk, low-reward quarterback, which could be favorable for those betting on the under.

The Denver defense has delivered impressive performances in consecutive games, shutting down both the Buccaneers and the Jets. As a result, the Broncos rank in the top five defensively by DVOA. Patrick Surtain II anchors a coverage unit that ranks in the top five in the league. Additionally, it’s evident that the Raiders have struggled to run the ball effectively this season.

The Raiders’ rushing success rate sits at 31 percent, which is dead last in the NFL and a full 4.7 percentage points worse than the second-worst team (the Chargers). If they kept up this pace for a whole season, they would have the worst rush offense by success rate since the 2002 Texans. Given the challenges both teams face in consistently scoring, I believe that betting on the under is the best option for this game.

Verdict: Bet under 36 or better.

Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers (-7.5)

The Cardinals have faced one of the toughest schedules of opposing offenses possible through four weeks, and it doesn’t get any easier for them in Week 5. The 49ers offense is different this season in how it produces, yet it is still very efficient. The Niners have shifted away from relying heavily on yards after the catch, and Brock Purdy is playing some of the best football of his young career.

The question is whether Arizona can make any stops. The 49ers scored 35 and 45 points in their two meetings with this defense last year, and there’s not much in those matchups to suggest Arizona can do anything to stop Kyle Shanahan given the talent gap.

San Francisco had 7.5 yards per play in the second meeting, yet it was a somewhat competitive game because of the success Arizona’s offense had on the ground. The Niners played an extremely limited New England last week, but I’m still skeptical of the Niners’ run defense without Javon Hargrave in the middle.

Arizona can move the ball on the ground and score through the air in garbage time if needed to help push the game total into the 50s.

Verdict: Bet over 49.5.

New York Giants at Seattle Seahawks (-6.5)

The Giants secondary has effectively stopped only one passing attack so far, which was Cleveland in Week 3. The Cowboys, Commanders, and Vikings had no issues passing the ball all over the field against New York. The Giants are ranked 21st in defensive DVOA and lack the personnel to slow down the Seattle passing attack, which appears improved and rejuvenated under first-year offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb.

The uncertainty in this matchup lies on the other side of the ball. Giants rookie star wideout Malik Nabers remains in concussion protocol as of Wednesday, but his chances of clearing it remain uncertain as of Wednesday. After a mini-bye following the Thursday night home loss to Dallas (in which their defense was exposed), the Seahawks are on a short week. Until we have more clarity on Seattle’s defensive line and secondary injuries, I would stay away from this game.

Verdict: Pass.

Green Bay Packers at Los Angeles Rams (+3)

It took some time for Jordan Love to shake off the rust in his first game back from an MCL sprain. He made some mistakes with turnovers on Sunday, and the Green Bay special teams cost the group points on multiple drives. Despite these issues, the Packers offense consistently moved the ball against Brian Flores’s defense. The Packers had 465 total yards, averaged 6.3 yards per play, and hit many explosive plays. Green Bay played with Malik Willis for two weeks and still leads the league in explosive plays, with 40. Even though the team lost Christian Watson to an injury, the receiving depth remains one of the Packers’ strengths. If Dontayvion Wicks sees an increased role, the offense should have as much upside as any other unit in the NFL.

The most underrated unit in the league, according to the market, might still be the Rams offense. A quick glance at the depth chart might lead one to write it off due to injuries to Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua. When you consider the offensive line injuries and reshuffling, it’s even more remarkable that the Rams faced a good defense in Chicago and posted a top-five success rate among all teams in Week 4.

On our podcast The Hook, my colleague Raheem Palmer and I discussed why he’s interested in backing Green Bay’s season-long upside now that Love has returned and the offense is ready to cook. I suspect there will be plenty to write about the Packers in future columns, but backing them in this spot as a road favorite against the Rams doesn’t make sense given the Rams’ continued offensive success.

Verdict: Lean over 48.5.

Sunday Night Football

Dallas Cowboys at Pittsburgh Steelers (-1.5)

The Cowboys are a classic example of why defensive performance year over year isn’t nearly as consistent and predictable as offensive performance. Dallas ranks 27th in defensive DVOA, 21st against the pass, and last against the run. The Giants couldn’t convert yards into points in their Week 4 loss, but they did move the ball throughout the game. Dallas’s defense is built around its playmaking stars, and with Daron Bland, Micah Parsons, and DeMarcus Lawrence potentially out, it’s unclear where the playmaking will come from.

The defense’s pressure rate and PFF pass rush grades have already taken a step back this season and could fall even further without Lawrence and Parsons.

The concerns for Dallas don’t end there. The offense isn’t operating nearly as efficiently as it did last season. Dallas is 19th in offensive success rate, and this is the spot where Mike Tomlin usually gets Pittsburgh hyped up and motivated after a loss, following a terrible first half in Indianapolis. If I had to bet a side here, I would lean toward Pittsburgh at home, given how it could potentially dominate the trenches in this game.

Verdict: Lean Pittsburgh -1.5.

Monday Night Football

New Orleans Saints at Kansas City Chiefs (-5.5)

The Chiefs’ second-half unders lost in the first two weeks of the 2024 season, but they look to be back for the foreseeable future after Kansas City held both the Falcons and Chargers to three total points in the second half. The under finished 18-3 in the second half in Chiefs games last season; their defense allowed 6.8 second-half points per game before the Super Bowl against San Francisco, when it allowed 12 (including overtime).

The Steve Spagnuolo defense has conceded 5.5 points per game in the second half of the first four games of the season. Have the Chiefs found good fortune in the red zone inefficiencies of both the Falcons and the Chargers? Without a doubt. But the defense has improved against the run this season relative to past years, and that’s a major key for slowing down New Orleans’s early-down rushing attack.

Now that Kansas City doesn’t have Rashee Rice or Isiah Pacheco, the limitations of the offensive unit have become increasingly clear. And you could argue that the current version of the Chiefs is even more offensively limited than it was during the second half of the 2023 season, when many wrote them off before they eventually won the Super Bowl. The Saints rank 11th in PFF pass rush grade and seventh in PFF coverage grade. The Saints are a top 10 defense for me.

Verdict: Bet New Orleans +5.5, and bet second half under 20.5.

Bets from this article made for Week 5:

Cardinals-49ers over 49.5 (-110)
Raiders-Broncos under 36 (-110)
Panthers +4.5 vs. Bears (-115)
Browns +3.5 vs. Commanders (-115 at DraftKings)
Bills moneyline vs. Texans (-108)
Saints +5.5 vs. Chiefs (-110)
Chiefs-Saints second half under 20.5 (-110)