The biggest favorite on the board in each of the first three weeks of the 2024 NFL season failed to win outright. Cincinnati has already lost twice as a favorite of more than a touchdown in Weeks 1 and 3, while Baltimore lost to Las Vegas in Week 2. This week, San Francisco is a 10-point favorite against New England, but the 49ers have already been upset twice in the past two weeks.

It’s been the year of the underdog so far, and three more are featured as potential surprises in this column.

Here are my thoughts on all 16 Week 4 games, starting with Thursday Night Football. I’ll let you know which games I’m passing on, considering betting on, and have already bet on. All lines are from FanDuel as of Tuesday night, unless otherwise noted.

Thursday Night Football

Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants (+5.5)

The Cowboys’ early-season defense under new defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer looks to have the same issues that plagued this unit under Dan Quinn prior to and during the playoffs last season. Cleveland might have the worst offense in the NFL and couldn’t exploit Dallas’s flaws in Week 1, but the Saints and Ravens had their way with the Cowboys’ front in the following weeks. The Cowboys are undersized along the defensive line, and teams with effective rushing attacks can really lean on them and generate explosive plays. Dallas is allowing 5.65 adjusted line yards defensively, which is over half a yard worse than every other team in the NFL.

The question is whether the Giants are actually able to exploit this weakness. Dating back to the start of the 2023 season, the Giants are 27th in rushing success rate. They’re in the bottom nine this season in line yards on offense, and the entire offense relies on production from rookie wide receiver Malik Nabers.

Defense isn’t the only concern for the Cowboys, either. After Dak Prescott had an MVP-caliber season last year, the other red flag for Dallas is the pass offense. Dallas finished last season fourth in passing success rate and is down to 19th thus far in 2024.

The Cowboys could be in a perfect get-right spot against the Giants, who have a poor secondary and can’t exploit Dallas’s weaknesses, but I need to see more before laying 5.5 on the road in a short week with Dallas.

Verdict: Pass; lean Dallas below -4.5.

Sunday Matchups

Cincinnati Bengals at Carolina Panthers (+4.5)

Carolina won its all-in, 0-2 desperation game with new quarterback Andy Dalton last week against a Raiders offense that is entirely one-dimensional and incapable of running the ball. The market reacted to both that dominant win and the porous Bengals defense and moved the spread down to Cincinnati -4.5 ahead of this matchup.

Carolina’s offense looked entirely rejuvenated by Dalton, and I am very much a believer in it going forward. The Panthers’ offensive line ranks fourth in PFF pass block grades, and the Bengals bring just four rushers most of the time. When protected, Dalton can score enough to keep the Panthers in the game.

I’m not sure that the Panthers have any way to get near Joe Burrow or stop the Bengals in this matchup. The return of Tee Higgins is one thing, but the improved offensive line play of the Bengals is another. Cincinnati is just average by PFF pass block grades but is top 10 in win rate. The Panthers generate basically zero pressure, and as a result, Burrow and the Bengals offense should be able to pick their number offensively.

Verdict: Bet Cincinnati team total over 26.5 (-110 at Caesars).

New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons (-1.5)

What a difference a week makes for the Saints. You don’t exactly need to be a rocket scientist to know that the Saints offense probably won’t be as good as it was in the first two weeks, but it also probably won’t be as bad as it was against the Eagles on Sunday.

Two games are such a tiny sample that we should not completely throw out our priors, and it seemed hard to believe that the Saints’ offensive line was actually great given how many questions it had preseason. Sunday, the offensive line had major problems holding up in protection of Derek Carr, especially once it lost starting center Erik McCoy, who will miss six to eight weeks with an injury. Without him, the line’s ability to block on the interior disintegrated. Tackles Taliese Fuaga and Trevor Penning also struggled, and the result is that the Saints offense now ranks 30th in PFF pass block grades.

The Falcons offense is also dealing with line injuries after key blockers Kaleb McGary and Drew Dalman left Sunday’s game against the Chiefs injured. The Falcons scored three total points on their final six drives, and while the red zone play-calling drew the ire of the media, it was clear that Atlanta called that game because it was afraid of how well the makeshift offensive line would hold up.

Right tackle McGary and center Dalman are likely out for this matchup. Just ask the Patriots after the Jets game what multiple offensive line injuries at once can do to a unit. Under is the only way I could look here.

Verdict: Lean under 42.5.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans (-7)

The last thing anyone wants to do is bet on the Jaguars following their dreadful performance on Monday night in Buffalo. Jacksonville played like a team that had given up in that 47-10 drubbing, and the market has responded accordingly. The look-ahead line before kickoff on Monday was Texans -4.5, but it has since moved to Texans -7. Buffalo completely dismantled defensive coordinator Ryan Nielsen’s man scheme, so it will be interesting to see how the Texans fare offensively against this type of defense. Jacksonville has played a higher percentage of man coverage than any other team in the NFL, and Houston’s first three opponents rank 27th, 28th, and 32nd in the percentage of snaps in man coverage.

The Texans have faced a lot of one coverage so far in 2024, and their offense has not been efficient. Houston ranks among the five worst teams in the NFL in offensive success, along with the Browns, Steelers, Panthers, and Bears. The pass offense, which was expected to be elite, ranks 25th in pass success rate. Aside from Joe Mixon’s strong rushing performance against the Colts in Week 1, Houston has not shown enough efficient offense to justify such a large spread.

It’s time to take a chance and hope Jacksonville shows some pride in this divisional rivalry with its season on the line, as Houston is vulnerable to another upset.

Verdict: Bet Jaguars +7 (-110).

Denver Broncos at New York Jets (-7.5)

Just as none of us expected, there are more questions about the Jets defense than the offense. The Jets offense is top five in series success rate—a metric that considers how often a team converts a first-and-10 into another set of downs—while the defense struggled in the first two weeks of the season. Aaron Rodgers shook off some rust in the first 1.5 games and has been moving and throwing the ball much more efficiently since the second half of the Week 2 comeback win in Tennessee.

New York had no problems shutting down the Patriots, who had no offensive line, in Week 3, but I don’t read too much into that game. The spine of the Jets defense looks like it could be worse than the market perception.

The Jets are bottom two in rush defense grades, per PFF, and just league average in pass rush. The secondary should still be pretty good, but Denver has a quietly solid offensive line that ranks above average in run and pass block win rates. I expect Denver to have success moving the ball and getting on the board in this one.

Verdict: Bet Denver team total over 14.5 (-116).

Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (-2.5)

Outside of the Sunday night Bills-Ravens game, this is the most exciting Week 4 matchup for me. Jordan Love is expected to make his return for the Packers, who managed to win both games without him against the Colts and Titans. It feels like Matt LaFleur was playing Madden with how much fun he had scheming up this offense around Malik Willis, and now we get to witness one of the best play caller battles in the league as LaFleur goes up against Brian Flores and the vaunted Minnesota defense.

The Vikings have put three straight offenses in a blender and chewed them up. And while many scoffed at the Week 1 performance against the Giants because they’re the Giants, the entire national media is now singing Minnesota’s praises after it repeated that showing against the 49ers and Texans. The market has taken notice too, with this total dropping.

Minnesota isn’t the only defense showing some real promise and improvements thus far. The Packers have seven interceptions already, and while turnovers can be noisy in small samples, I think Jeff Hafley’s more aggressive approach has forced more mistakes from the opposition. We all know Sam Darnold has a mistake in him, and I think the aggression of these two defenses will lead to more explosive plays, turnovers, and short fields. All signals point to the over for me given that both of these offenses have so many playmakers on the field.

Verdict: Bet over 43.5 (-110).

Pittsburgh Steelers at Indianapolis Colts (+1.5)

This is a classic matchup of strength as the Colts’ offensive line takes on Pittsburgh’s defensive line. The Colts rank first in both pass and run blocking grades from PFF, yet the offense has struggled to find consistency from play to play. It heavily relies on explosive plays, creating a very boom-or-bust style of offense. The Steelers have had the league’s best pass rush so far this season, but they haven’t faced an offense with the kind of explosiveness the Colts have.

The biggest question in this game is whether the Colts can successfully run the ball against this Pittsburgh front. Indianapolis moved the ball well in the second half against a solid Bears defensive line once it established Jonathan Taylor more on early downs. The Colts ran for 170 yards in a December meeting with the Steelers last year.

Pittsburgh’s offense showed real signs of life in the second half against the Chargers by running the ball and using the middle of the field in the passing game. Gus Bradley’s defense won’t put a ton of stress on Justin Fields to force mistakes or turnovers. Many people expect a low-scoring contest, but the total has actually been bet up from 38.5 to close to 40. Unless Indianapolis gets to +3, I’ll be sitting this one out. We’re nearing the top of the market on Pittsburgh.

Verdict: Lean Colts; bet at +3.

Los Angeles Rams at Chicago Bears (-2.5)

I suspect we will look back at the Rams’ stunning comeback win against the 49ers as one of the most surprising results of the entire season when January arrives. This is the worst defense that Caleb Williams and the Bears have faced this season, and it feels like this is the Bears’ kitchen-sink, all-in game if they want to salvage Williams’s rookie year.

There are two outlier defenses in EPA per play allowed. Washington is 32nd by a significant margin through three weeks, and the Rams are 31st, with a notable gap to the 30th-ranked defense. Even so, it is challenging to justify laying a field goal with Williams and the Bears, who have had a bottom-five offense despite playing three AFC South teams to begin the season. That division hasn’t exactly shined thus far.

Verdict: Pass.

Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+2.5)

The Eagles entered the season with one of the most talented skill-position groups in the entire NFL, but now they are in dire straits at wide receiver entering the Week 4 playoff rematch with the Buccaneers. A.J. Brown’s hamstring injury, which caused him to miss Weeks 2 and 3, is still uncertain as of Tuesday, and DeVonta Smith also suffered a concussion in the win against the Saints. The Eagles seriously lacked explosiveness in Week 2 against the Falcons, with zero pass plays of 20-plus yards. While tight end Dallas Goedert had a career game in Week 3 to save the offense, the Eagles will struggle even more for big plays if neither wideout can go on Sunday. We saw Todd Bowles and the Buccaneers defense have a ton of success blitzing Jalen Hurts in the playoffs last year. I suspect the Eagles will again struggle to deal with pressure, especially now that Lane Johnson on the offensive line is also questionable with a concussion.

Hurts has improved numbers against the blitz in 2024, with 7.2 yards per attempt and a 72.7 percent completion rate. However, he hasn’t faced a defense that will be nearly as aggressive as Bowles’s will be on Sunday. The only way for the Eagles to be successful offensively is to avoid obvious passing situations that will enable the Bucs to man up and stress Hurts, who has made six turnover-worthy plays when under pressure this year. Expect Philadelphia to use heavier formations with an extra tight end, lean on Saquon Barkley and the run game, and shorten the game with methodical drives.

Now that the Eagles’ defensive line has shown some real signs of life in Week 3, including the interior domination and game-wrecking from Jalen Carter, I’m willing to bet on the game staying under 45 or better. Tampa Bay is also one of my favorite teaser legs of the week at +8.5.

Verdict: Bet under 45 (-110); use Tampa Bay as a teaser leg.

New England Patriots at San Francisco 49ers (-10)

New England found itself in a nightmare scenario on Thursday night against the Jets. The Patriots played without several key starters on the offensive line, had a quick turnaround from an overtime game, and had a rookie head coach preparing for his first short-week road game. All of these factors contributed to a poor offensive performance and a blowout loss to the Jets.

The 49ers defense performed well against the Jets run in Week 1 but has struggled in consecutive road games. San Francisco currently ranks 29th in expected points added per rush allowed, continuing a troubling trend from last season. Since the beginning of 2023, only the Cardinals and Panthers have had worse run defenses.

Despite facing a makeshift offensive line from the Rams, the 49ers defense failed to consistently make stops. The likely season-ending injury to Javon Hargrave has put the 49ers in a difficult position defensively. Jauan Jennings had a standout game on offense, stepping up to replace injured players for San Francisco. However, the Patriots enter this game with a significant rest advantage.

This rest advantage could potentially allow Sidy Sow and Vederian Lowe to return on the left side of the offensive line. (Sow practiced on Monday; Lowe was limited.) I’m waiting for more information on the offensive line situation before considering the Patriots as a double-digit underdog. New England has the ability to run the ball effectively and control the clock, which could be beneficial in a scoring environment that has strongly favored underdogs through the first three weeks of the season.

Verdict: Lean Patriots +10; wait for more injury news.

Washington Commanders at Arizona Cardinals (-3.5)

One of the under-discussed truths of Week 3 of the NFL season was that the Cardinals actually shut out the vaunted Lions offense in the second half of their 20-13 loss on Sunday. Does that say more about the Cardinals defense or the Lions offense? I think it’s probably the latter (more on that later), but it’s still notable given that the Jonathan Gannon defense has now exceeded expectations in two of its three games. The Week 1 loss by six in Buffalo is aging well considering what Buffalo did to Miami and Jacksonville in the past two weeks.

Washington’s offense is an early-season supernova, but I already have my spot circled for when I want to fade the Commanders offense. Gannon’s passive defensive approach probably won’t make life too difficult for Kliff Kingsbury and Jayden Daniels, but the Browns and Jim Schwartz’s aggression will present a really different challenge in Week 5. The Commanders remain the worst defense in the NFL and will continue to be in shoot-outs until someone really gets aggressive with them and forces them to consistently go more vertical.

Verdict: Lean over 50.5.

Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Chargers (+8.5)

The Chargers may be without Derwin James Jr., Joey Bosa, Justin Herbert, Rashawn Slater, and Joe Alt for Sunday’s game. The market has taken notice, as the line surpassed six and seven on Monday. How will the Chargers handle Steve Spagnuolo’s blitzes and the Kansas City secondary’s strong man coverage? If both tackles are absent, it would be nearly irresponsible to play a half-healthy Herbert.

There are too many unknowns, but I will note that the Kansas City offense appears to be struggling, and the absence of Isiah Pacheco affected its rushing efficiency against Atlanta.

Verdict: Pass.

Cleveland Browns at Las Vegas Raiders (+1.5)

My current NFL franchise disarray rankings would place both of these teams in the top three, alongside the 0-3 Jaguars. With Raiders head coach Antonio Pierce criticizing his players for making “business decisions” and the Browns facing a shortage of healthy players on their offensive line (resulting in the worst offense in the NFL), it’s challenging to form a confident opinion about either team.

The Raiders offense is notably one-dimensional, making it vulnerable to a defensive coordinator like Jim Schwartz. Gardner Minshew struggled in the recent blowout loss to Carolina, and the Browns are likely to put more pressure on him. However, Cleveland’s running game is also lacking, and if the game turns into a passing contest between Deshaun Watson and Minshew, the Raiders’ offensive skill-position players might have the advantage at home in a close match.

Las Vegas ranks 15th in EPA per pass, while Cleveland is down at 31st. Based on this alone, I would lean toward Vegas, but there are better games to bet on.

Verdict: Lean Las Vegas moneyline.

Sunday Night Football

Buffalo Bills at Baltimore Ravens (-2.5)

The Chiefs might also be 3-0 and the two-time defending champions, but I would project the Bills as a favorite over the Chiefs if they played a hypothetical game on a neutral field this weekend. Buffalo’s complete dominance of Miami and Jacksonville in consecutive games is a strong signal that this offense is firing on all cylinders. Compare that to Kansas City, which has played a tougher schedule but legitimately played three coin-flip games that were decided on the final play.

Both of Buffalo’s offensive tackles rank in the top 10 in pass block win rate. The offense is more run-heavy than it’s been in the past, which is decreasing the volume for and burden on Josh Allen. Allen has been hyper-efficient as a runner, and his lowered pass volume has helped him cut down on the mistakes that have plagued his game in the past. Buffalo’s pass rush looks improved, with Von Miller finding the fountain of youth and Greg Rousseau flashing consistently.

I write all of this because the market might still be catching up to just how good Buffalo is. I know this sounds reactionary since I was against Buffalo in Week 3. The Ravens’ offensive line showed real improvement in Week 3, but that had more to do with Dallas’s porous run defense. The Baltimore defense still has major questions for me, and this game should be lined as a toss-up.

Verdict: Bet Bills +2.5 (-110).

Monday Night Football

Tennessee Titans at Miami Dolphins (+1.5)

Tennessee and Miami engaged in an epic clash on Monday Night Football in 2023, with the Titans staging a comeback in the final minutes to win 28-27 in a 32-point fourth quarter. If they replayed the entire game on television instead of airing the actual matchup this Monday, would anyone be upset?

If Will Levis could eliminate the absurdly negative plays, such as his eight sacks and pick-six from last Sunday, his highs and top throws would be intriguing. I would have reluctantly bet on him if the Dolphins had stuck with Skylar Thompson, but the potential introduction of Tyler Huntley throws a real wrench into trying to bet on this game.

Huntley has been with the team for less than two weeks. He’s not a natural fit in the Mike McDaniel offense either, but he has more proven, albeit modest, past NFL success than Thompson. There is too much uncertainty to get involved.

Verdict: Pass.

Seattle Seahawks at Detroit Lions (-3.5)

We have witnessed one game of Jared Goff against a Mike Macdonald defense, and it was one of the worst games of Goff’s career. He averaged 5.36 yards per attempt and was sacked five times, and the offense scored only six points in Baltimore last season. While Seattle doesn’t have the same defensive talent as the Ravens, and this game is indoors in Detroit, that head-to-head matchup was so dominated by Macdonald that there is some concern in the back of my brain about how this matchup could go on Monday. The Lions are also expected to be without center Frank Ragnow, the anchor of one of the league’s best offensive lines.

The Seahawks are a great example of stats versus strength of schedule. They rank as the second-best defense in the NFL by EPA per drive allowed, but they have played against Bo Nix in his debut, Jacoby Brissett, and Skylar Thompson. The Seahawks will have some injury concerns of their own as defensive tackles Leonard Williams and Byron Murphy didn’t finish the game on Sunday and could miss their upcoming game. The Lions have one of the most efficient run offenses in the NFL, and those two were key pieces in the improved Seattle run defense.

If this game turns into a battle of pass offenses, I really like Seattle’s chances to move the ball on the Lions secondary and keep the game close.

Verdict: Bet Seattle +3.5 (-105).

Bets from this article made for Week 4:

Philadelphia–Tampa Bay under 45 (-110)
Minnesota–Green Bay over 43.5 (-110)
Denver team total over 14.5 (-116)
Cincinnati team total over 26.5 (-110)
Jacksonville +7 vs. Houston (-115)
Seattle +3.5 vs. Detroit (-105)
Buffalo +2.5 (-110)