Our brains normally keep what happened most recently at the front of our minds. Recency bias is one of the most prominent logical fallacies that impacts everyone, including sports fans and bettors alike. And there is no week in the NFL calendar that better encapsulates this than Week 2.

Trying to balance your preseason beliefs with what you observed in Week 1 is the ultimate challenge of analyzing and previewing the upcoming slate.

Here are my thoughts on all 16 Week 2 games, starting with Thursday Night Football, followed by the games I’m passing on, considering betting on, and have already bet on. All lines are from FanDuel as of Tuesday night, unless otherwise noted.

Thursday Night Football

Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins (-2.5)

Buffalo will be without its top defensive back, Taron Johnson, because of an injured forearm. This is a red flag for an already depleted defensive backfield that will be trying to contain one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL. The other side of the ball, however, has concerns of its own. Buffalo’s ability to control the ball and clear emphasis on running have been staples of the Joe Brady offense since he took over as coordinator at midseason last year. Even though they played from behind for a large portion of their Week 1 game against Arizona, the Bills had the fourth-highest rush rate at 56.9 percent, which was 11.6 percentage points higher than the league average.

The Bills were also able to generate explosive plays on Sunday, with 14 plays gaining 10 yards or more. However, this says more about the poor quality of the Arizona defense than anything else. Even if Buffalo is able to run the ball successfully against Miami, it will struggle to generate the same explosive plays against a better defense. This Thursday-night game reminds me of their Week 18 matchup last year; the Bills dominated time of possession and yardage, but their 36 rush attempts made each drive a slog, limiting scoring opportunities.

And in Week 1 this season, Miami’s offense gained 400 total yards, with Tua Tagovailoa being the only quarterback to surpass 300 passing yards. Even so, the offense was hit-or-miss, and the Dolphins finished 21st in success rate. Both Miami running backs, De’Von Achane and Raheem Mostert, were listed on the Tuesday injury report. Buffalo’s defense performed well against the Cardinals’ strong rush offense in Week 1 and should hold up in run defense.

One final note: Miami and Buffalo finished below average in pace rate over expected in Week 1; Buffalo was the league’s slowest. This game could be very slow. The market total on this game has moved down from the opener of 51 to 49 as of Tuesday. As long as this total is at least 49, I would bet the under.

Verdict: Bet under 49 or better.

Pass

Los Angeles Chargers (-6) at Carolina Panthers

You didn’t have to search far into the corners of the internet to find people who were curious about the Panthers entering the 2024 season, including me. I bet on them last week +4, and they would have barely covered if the spread were +40. Bryce Young’s first pass of the first half and second pass of the second half were intercepted. The defense made the weak New Orleans offensive line look elite, and now Carolina will be without star defensive tackle Derrick Brown for the remainder of the season.

I rewatched the game and spent time digging through the advanced box score to try to find some optimism for the Panthers, but I came up with basically nothing. The market has likely overadjusted in response to the Chargers’ win against the Raiders and Antonio Pierce’s questionable in-game decision-making, as well as because of how poorly the Panthers performed. The look-ahead line was Chargers -3, but unless this hits +7, I will not be backing Carolina again in Week 2.

Verdict: Pass unless Carolina gets to +7.

Las Vegas Raiders at Baltimore Ravens (-9.5)

This week, my choice for survivor pools is the Ravens. Last week, I advised staying away from the Bengals as the biggest favorite on the board if you were participating in survivor pools. My preferred pick of Seattle didn’t make winning the survivor pool easy, but the Seahawks pulled away in the second half and won 26-20. Baltimore doesn’t have many favorable home matchups this season, so this is a good opportunity to use the team, since the Sunday matchup gives the Ravens some extra rest after their Week 1 loss.

Otherwise, this game doesn’t really interest me from a spread and total perspective. However, I will be looking to target Lamar Jackson under rush attempts and yards when props open later this week. He’s likely to open higher than usual due to his workload last week, and Baltimore is a smart organization that understands they can’t have him run 15-plus times per game. He experienced soreness and missed practice on Monday.

Verdict: Pass; use Baltimore for survivor; target Lamar Jackson rushing unders.

Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals (-1.5)

The Rams’ offensive line situation is so dire that they have signed three players to the roster this week in hopes of solidifying a unit that had no chance to block the Lions on Sunday night. The Rams finished with by far the worst pass block PFF grade, and third-string left tackle A.J. Arcuri didn’t fare well at all trying to block Aidan Hutchinson.

Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp orchestrated a remarkable second-half comeback, leading the Rams to generate offense under immense pressure. Despite Sean McVay’s exceptional offensive coaching, that was not sufficient. Due to injuries on the offensive line and Puka Nacua being placed on injured reserve, the Cardinals have now become the favorites.

If the Rams can’t stop the run, run the ball, or pass protect, it’s nearly impossible to support them in this spot unless you believe Stafford can magic his way through another weak secondary. The Cardinals’ running game was surprisingly effective in 2023, and considering how well the Lions ran the ball, the Rams defense might be on the field for an extended period in this game.

I will wait for more information on the Rams’ offensive line situation before making a decision, but this game seems to have one of the highest variance levels, with a wide range of outcomes, in Week 2.

Verdict: Pass.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Denver Broncos (+3)

We seem to go through the same routine with Mike Tomlin and the Steelers every year. It’s quite predictable now.

Step 1: The Steelers win an ugly game as the underdog and surprise people.
Step 2: The Steelers become the favorite against an inferior team, often on the road.
Step 3: Bettors rush to back Pittsburgh.
Step 4: The Steelers lose and disappoint as the favorite.
Step 5: Repeat from Step 1.

We are currently at the third step, especially since the Broncos offense looked lifeless in Bo Nix’s debut. If backing Pittsburgh seems too easy, it probably is. However, you won’t catch me betting on Denver unless the line moves to four.

Verdict: Pass.

New York Giants at Washington Commanders (-1.5)

The stoppable force (Daniel Jones and the Giants offense) meets the movable object (the Commanders defense). The Vikings didn’t blitz as much as a typical Brian Flores defense would in Week 1, especially once Minnesota took an early lead, and the Giants struggled to generate consistent offense.

The Giants’ offensive line and receiving corps were not major issues in Week 1. New York had above-average separation metrics, even when accounting for the soft Minnesota defense in garbage time. The offensive line ranked 14th in pass blocking, per PFF. It’s now up to Brian Daboll and Jones to address this.

If the Giants can’t move the ball effectively in this matchup, there’s little hope for their offense for the rest of the season. Jones has historically performed well against the Commanders, and both teams’ secondaries appear to be among the worst in the NFL after one week. The market reacted by increasing the total from 42 to 44.5. This could be a great teaser option if the Commanders are favored by 1.5-2.5 points, especially when paired with Denver at home with a low total.

Verdict: Pass; look to tease Giants.

Lean

Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville Jaguars (-3.5)

Cleveland joins a handful of teams that absolutely no one will want to bet on in Week 2 because of injuries (the Packers) or dismal Week 1 performances (the Giants, Panthers, and Commanders). The beauty of Week 2 is trying to figure out which are overreactions and which aren’t big enough reactions.

Deshaun Watson looked terrible and completely unsalvageable as a quarterback in Week 1, but the offense will have much more breathing room against the Jaguars in Week 2. We know that Dallas has one of the best pass rushes in the NFL, and its defensive line completely dominated an injured Cleveland offensive line. Dallas generated constant pressure, leaving Cleveland with no real consistent options to move the ball. Now, the Browns face a Jaguars defensive line that had the lowest pressure rate in the NFL in Week 1, at 14.6 percent.

The line for this game in the look ahead was Jacksonville -1, and both of these teams began the season with the exact same win total over/under. Now that the line has moved past the key number of three, you’re paying a premium to back Jacksonville. While it’s true that the Jaguars were a Travis Etienne Jr. fumble away from going up 24-7, it’s also true that Miami won the underlying box score and was the deserving winner of the game based on how the 60 minutes played out.

Verdict: Lean Jacksonville at -3; pass at -3.5.

New York Jets at Tennessee Titans (+3.5)

The Titans put together two methodical and impressive touchdown drives in the first half of their game with the Bears, totaling 22 combined plays for 152 yards. However, in the second half, Tennessee had seven possessions and 29 plays and gained only 55 total yards. The result of those drives was four punts (one blocked) and three turnovers, one of which was a comical pick-six from Will Levis attempting an underhand flick pass. The Titans’ multiple-score lead in the second half likely contributed to their heavy reliance on running the ball. Tennessee ran the ball on 16 out of 24 sets on first-and-10.

We just saw the game plan to dismantle the Jets defense from San Francisco on Monday night; you have to be physical and run the ball right at it. Tennessee’s offensive line ranked 25th in run blocking and 30th in pass blocking according to PFF grades in Week 1.

There are real limitations to the Jets’ offensive skill group. Although Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall are top 15 fantasy picks, the rest of the roster lacks the ability to separate. Titans corner L’Jarius Sneed matches up well against Wilson, and the strength of the Titans defense is up front.

All signs point to the under here, and the fact that the Jets are on the road on a short week only adds to the advantage for a Tennessee defense that deserves credit for its Week 1 performance. The total has been bet down from 42 to 40.5, and I would bet under 41 or better.

Verdict: Lean under 40.5; bet at 41.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions (-7)

This game has seen significant movement in the betting markets, with Detroit and the over gaining favor due to the extensive injuries Tampa Bay suffered in its Week 1 win against Washington. Detroit initially opened as a -6 favorite with a total of 49, but now the Lions are -7, and the total has increased to 51.5.

In the team’s Week 1 win, Tampa Bay cornerback Zyon McCollum suffered a concussion, cornerback Josh Hayes injured his ankle, and third corner Bryce Hall was carted off the field. Safety Antoine Winfield Jr. also left the game wearing a walking boot and is out for Sunday.

Detroit’s offense wasn’t on the field much in its overtime win against the Rams in Week 1, as the Lions had just nine full possessions in regulation. Detroit finished no. 1 in rushing success rate and expected points added per rush. The Lions defense had major issues getting off the field on third down, an area where Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers have thrived for a year now.

The Buccaneers offense had its way with the Commanders defense in Week 1 as Mayfield averaged 9.6 yards per attempt and threw four touchdowns with no interceptions. The surprise in the game was how much Washington was able to move the ball against the Buccaneers. Washington finished fourth in series success rate, a metric that looks at how often teams convert a first-and-10 into another set of downs or a score. With better field goal kicking, the Commanders would have scored 20 points on their first six drives. I fully expect both offenses to have their way with the other team’s defense in this game, but the market has now gotten too high on this total to still bet the over.

While I bet the over 49 at the open on Monday, it has moved past the key number of 51 and is no longer a bet. In fact, if the Buccaneers get to +7.5, I’d bet on Tampa to keep this game close against a Lions secondary that didn’t show much improvement last week.

Verdict: Lean over, but I wouldn’t bet unless you can get 51 or better.

Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs (-5.5)

Jake Browning started at Arrowhead in December, and the Chiefs closed as 7.5-point favorites in that game. I believe that the Chiefs have improved offensively since that game, but the gap between Browning and Joe Burrow must be larger than the current market price indicates.

The weakness of the Bengals’ run defense against the Patriots in Week 1 is less relevant in this matchup. It’s not ideal for the Chiefs to go run-heavy offensively because they have Patrick Mahomes as their quarterback. The Bengals should have more offensive possessions in this game to address the issues they faced in their opener against New England.

Despite the high price, it’s challenging to support Cincinnati in this game. It’s still uncertain if or when the Bengals will overcome their typical September struggles and perform like the competent football team we usually see in later months. The status of Tee Higgins is crucial to their chances of success, and I will wait to learn more about his condition later in the week before considering Cincinnati.

Verdict: Lean Cincinnati +5.5, but wait for more Higgins news.

Chicago Bears at Houston Texans (-6.5)

The Texans played quite slowly and ran the ball a lot more than many people expected in Week 1. This approach was successful for them offensively, as they controlled the time of possession, ran more plays, and defeated Indianapolis on the road in a close divisional contest. The final score of the Colts game suggests this Bears-Texans matchup will be offense galore, but the underlying box score could indicate that Houston is more of an under team.

Chicago’s defense is expected to be considerably better than Indianapolis’s, and the Bears offense is not nearly as explosive as the Colts’ was, with three 50-plus-yard plays on Sunday. The market shows a solid move toward Houston early in the week, but the only bets I would consider here would be the under given Chicago’s offensive performance and the Texans’ preference to slow the game down and run the ball.

Verdict: Lean under 45.5.

San Francisco 49ers (-5.5) at Minnesota Vikings

The 49ers have shrugged off the Super Bowl hangover, despite facing a few obstacles in Week 1: San Francisco was without Christian McCaffrey, Trent Williams needed an IV in the fourth quarter (and he’d missed training camp), and Brandon Aiyuk had limited playing time after a contract dispute in training camp. Even so, the 49ers still managed to dominate, with 24 first downs and 401 total yards against the Jets defense, which many consider to be one of the best. Considering how unpredictable calf injuries can be and how well Jordan Mason performed as McCaffrey’s replacement, I doubt that San Francisco will play McCaffrey in Week 2.

Minnesota’s offensive line performed admirably in Week 1 against the Giants’ excellent defensive line, allowing Sam Darnold to be highly efficient. According to Pro Football Focus, Darnold finished 14-of-15 for 154 yards when given adequate protection. While the 49ers secondary is notably stronger than the Giants’, the abundance of offensive talent on both teams and lingering uncertainties about their defenses indicate that it’s too conservative for the total score to be set below 46.

Verdict: Lean over 46 or better; bet at 45 or better.

Bets

New Orleans Saints at Dallas Cowboys (-6.5)

Both the Saints and Cowboys had blowout wins in Week 1, and the market basically didn’t move from the look-ahead line of Dallas -6. Are we giving the Saints the same upgrade for throttling Carolina at home as Dallas is getting for crushing Cleveland on the road? Personally, I don’t think we should. Dallas deserves the bigger upgrade and should be favored by more than a touchdown in this game. We had questions about the Cowboys offensive line, and it held up pretty well against a ferocious Browns defense. We now also have a pretty large sample of Derek Carr’s struggles under pressure, and Dallas has been one of the best flat-track bullies in the NFL for two years, especially at home.

The Saints were projected to have one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL entering the season, even coming in at 31st in the preseason PFF rankings. One positive game against the Panthers should not quickly change that belief.

Dallas generated the fourth-highest pressure rate in Week 1 and completely shut down the Browns offense as a result. I believe this speaks volumes about the current state of the Browns offensive line and Deshaun Watson. However, the Cowboys still demonstrated to me in Week 1 that the market overreacted by downgrading them in the preseason. They have yet to be upgraded enough entering Week 2.

Verdict: Bet Dallas -6.5 or better.

Indianapolis Colts (-3.5) at Green Bay Packers

In August, Sean Koerner of the Action Network projected the value against the spread for all 117 quarterbacks on NFL rosters. He identified a 4.5-point gap between Jordan Love (+3.5) and Green Bay backup Malik Willis (-1). Koerner priced Willis similar to Tanner McKee, Josh Johnson, and Desmond Ridder, and he had Love ranked as the 15th-best quarterback in the NFL.

Before Week 1, the look-ahead line for this game was Green Bay -4.5, and now the Colts are 3.5-point favorites. Is the downgrade from Love to Willis really worth eight points? Indianapolis ran an extremely boom-or-bust offense in Week 1, with Anthony Richardson completing nine passes for 212 yards. His average depth of target was an absurd 16.4 yards, 4 yards higher than every other NFL quarterback in Week 1. I am skeptical about how sustainable that is, as defenses will do everything they can to force Richardson and the Colts to be more methodical.

The Colts’ bigger concern was their run defense. Only three teams allowed a higher rushing success rate than the Colts in Week 1. Entering the season, the Colts defense was expected to be strong, but the group was ranked 25th in run stop win rate against Houston, per ESPN. Green Bay could slow down and lean on the ground game to effectively protect Willis and keep the home game close.

It’s hard to glean much from the defensive data from Green Bay’s loss to Philadelphia in Brazil, considering the poor quality of the field and the slippery conditions, which likely hindered the pass rush, resulting in more explosive plays for both offenses.

I anticipate that the Colts will be a popular choice in survivor pools and against the spread. However, it’s important to remember that just a week ago, the public was hesitant to bet on the Colts because of uncertainties surrounding Richardson. While his highlight throws were impressive, the best approach to this game is to take advantage of the significant market overadjustment from Love to Willis. It’s Green Bay for me.

Verdict: Bet Green Bay +3.5 or better.

Seattle Seahawks at New England Patriots (+3.5)

New England performed better than expected in both trenches against Cincinnati and avoided making costly mistakes. The Patriots did require assistance from the Bengals (in the form of drops and turnovers) to secure the win, but Cincinnati’s offense never seemed comfortable throughout the game, which is a testament to Jerod Mayo’s defense.

The reaction to the Patriots game has been primarily focused on the Bengals and whether it’s time to panic in Cincinnati. However, I want to pose a different question. What if the Patriots are actually better than we anticipated? The defense received exceptional play from corner Christian Gonzalez against Ja’Marr Chase, and the defensive line effectively shut down Cincinnati’s run game.

The Patriots also ran the ball effectively and limited Cincinnati to only eight possessions. Considering the concerning performance of the Seattle offensive line in Week 1, I believe that New England is slightly undervalued at home as an underdog by more than a field goal. Despite my high regard for Seattle, I cannot justify taking the Seahawks above three with such a low total of 37.5.

Verdict: Bet New England +3.5; lean at +3.

Atlanta Falcons at Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5)

There’s no team that I have personally downgraded more from Week 1 to Week 2 than the Atlanta Falcons. It’s possible that I am overreacting to one bad game from a rusty Kirk Cousins, but it’s not just the quarterback. In Week 1, Atlanta’s offensive line had the second-worst pass block grade, per PFF. The Falcons pass rush was unable to generate pressure even after the addition of Matthew Judon (they finished 30th in pass rush grade, according to PFF). The secondary wasn’t really tested by Justin Fields and the Steelers offense, and now the Falcons travel on the road to face the Eagles in a max home-field advantage spot on Monday Night Football.

Cousins looked immobile in the pocket and had three turnover-worthy plays in that game. Among quarterbacks, only Jalen Hurts, Bryce Young, and Will Levis had worse PFF grades than Cousins. I know that Hurts had four turnover-worthy plays and some really poor decision-making, but the improvements the Eagles made against the blitz give me some real optimism for the offense going forward.

The Eagles’ offensive talent advantage is so overwhelming that they can score 30-plus points even when Hurts is actively sabotaging the offense. If he cleans up his play, the Eagles offense will be a top-five unit. Does anyone think the Falcons can keep up on the road in prime time with Cousins in this state? I don’t. Call me square; I’m laying it with Philadelphia.

Verdict: Bet Philadelphia -6.5 or better.

Bets from this article made for Week 2:

Eagles -6.5 (-110) vs. Falcons
Cowboys -6.5 (-110) vs. Saints
Packers +3.5 (-110) vs. Colts
Patriots +3.5 (-110) vs. Seahawks
Bills/Dolphins Under 49 (-110)