The average NFL rookie starting quarterback from 2010-2023

Posted by Admin August 30, 2024 NFL

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Over the last 14 NFL seasons there have been 27 rookie quarterbacks who have started 13 or more games. If we expand that to 12 games, then we add six more.

Fifteen rookie QBs have started every game over the last fourteen seasons, so roughly one per year. Recently Bryce Young started all but one last season, while CJ Stroud started 15 of 17. No rookie QB started more than Kenny Pickett’s twelve in 2022. Both Mac Jones and Trevor Lawrence started all 17 in 2021. Way back in 2020 when there were only 16 regular season games, Justin Herbert started 15. Kyler Murray started every game in 2019. Even top 3 picks like Sam Darnold, Blake Bortles, Zach Wilson and Baker Mayfield didn’t start every game as rookies. In some cases that is due to injury, but in many cases it is due to a veteran “place-holder” QB starting the first few games. Bo Nix does not have to contend with that as he is the starter for the opener against Seattle.

Let’s shift the focus to the best, worst and average among the recent (last 14 seasons) rookie starting QBs. The average stat line for rookie QBs with a min of 12 starts is:

14.6 GS, 289 COMP, 480 ATT, 60.2%, 3245 YDs, 17.5 TD, 12.4 INT, PR 81.9, 42.2% Success, 36 sacks, 5.4 ANYA, 1.3 pick 6’s allowed

The best and worst:

PR was Dak Prescott at 104.9 – worst was DeShone Kizer at 60.5.
COMP% was Dak at 67.8 – worst was Blain Gabbert at 50.8
Passing TDs was Justin Herbert with 31 – worst was Mitch Trubisky with 7.
TD:INT ratio was Dak at 5.8:1.0 – worst was Kizer at 0.5:1.0
Josh Rosen had the most pick sixes thrown with 4 while multiple QBs had zero.
ANYA was Dak at 7.9 – worst was Rosen at 3.5
Most sacked was Bryce Young at 62 while the least was a tie between Andy Dalton and Derek Carr at 24.
Y/C was Cam Newton with 13.1 – worst was Bryce Young at 9.1.

I expect Bo to be above average in terms of TD:INT ratio since he was so good at avoiding INTs while at Oregon. I think yards are going to be about average for recent rookie starting QBs.

In terms of rushing the 33 QBs did this as rookies

Rk	Player	Yds	Season	Age	Team	GS	Att	Yds	Y/A	TD	Y/G	1D	Succ%
13	Trevor Lawrence	334	2021	22	JAX	17	73	334	4.6	2	19.6	22	50.7
42	Mac Jones	129	2021	23	NWE	17	44	129	2.9	0	7.6	22	52.3
2	Cam Newton	706	2011	22	CAR	16	126	706	5.6	14	44.1	53	53.2
5	Kyler Murray	544	2019	22	ARI	16	93	544	5.8	4	34	27	48.4
6	Russell Wilson	489	2012	24	SEA	16	94	489	5.2	4	30.6	29	55.3
10	Geno Smith	366	2013	23	NYJ	16	72	366	5.1	6	22.9	24	50
14	Dak Prescott	282	2016	23	DAL	16	57	282	4.9	6	17.6	21	54.4
17	Andrew Luck	255	2012	23	IND	16	62	255	4.1	5	15.9	24	53.2
18	Bryce Young	253	2023	22	CAR	16	39	253	6.5	0	15.8	18	64.1
25	Jameis Winston	213	2015	21	TAM	16	54	213	3.9	6	13.3	19	42.6
26	Ryan Tannehill	211	2012	24	MIA	16	49	211	4.3	2	13.2	16	42.9
33	Andy Dalton	152	2011	24	CIN	16	37	152	4.1	1	9.5	8	29.7
34	Carson Wentz	150	2016	24	PHI	16	46	150	3.3	2	9.4	17	47.8
1	Robert Griffin III	815	2012	22	WAS	15	120	815	6.8	7	54.3	45	56.7
9	DeShone Kizer	419	2017	21	CLE	15	77	419	5.4	5	27.9	32	50.6
22	Justin Herbert	234	2020	22	LAC	15	55	234	4.3	5	15.6	20	49.1
32	C.J. Stroud	167	2023	22	HOU	15	39	167	4.3	3	11.1	17	59
45	Brandon Weeden	111	2012	29	CLE	15	27	111	4.1	0	7.4	12	51.9
8	Blake Bortles	419	2014	22	JAX	13	56	419	7.5	0	29.9	29	62.5
30	Zach Wilson	185	2021	22	NYJ	13	29	185	6.4	4	14.2	10	44.8
36	Sam Darnold	138	2018	21	NYJ	13	44	138	3.1	1	10.6	16	38.6
37	Josh Rosen	138	2018	21	ARI	13	23	138	6.0	0	9.9	8	39.1
41	Baker Mayfield	131	2018	23	CLE	13	39	131	3.4	0	9.4	8	38.5
12	Gardner Minshew II	344	2019	23	JAX	12	67	344	5.1	0	24.6	20	43.3
15	Daniel Jones	279	2019	22	NYG	12	45	279	6.2	2	21.5	21	66.7
19	Marcus Mariota	252	2015	22	TEN	12	34	252	7.4	2	21	11	44.1
20	Mitchell Trubisky	248	2017	23	CHI	12	41	248	6.0	2	20.7	14	39
21	Kenny Pickett	237	2022	24	PIT	12	55	237	4.3	3	18.2	23	60
27	Teddy Bridgewater	209	2014	22	MIN	12	47	209	4.4	1	16.1	15	46.8

Cam Newton had 14 rushing TDs as a rookie he also had the most rushing first downs with 53. Robert Griffin had the most yards with 815 and the most rushing yards per game with 54.3. The highest success rate on runs was Daniel Jones at 66.7%. A successful run gains 40% of the needed yards on first down, 60% of the needed yarded on second down and converts on third or fourth down. Lamar Jackson only started 7 games as a rookie but ran for 695 yards on 147 carries and five TDs.

The average was 58 runs for 301 yards and 5 TDs with 21 first downs. The carries are skewed high because of Newton’s 126 and Griffin’s 120. For what it’s worth, Justin Fields, who only started 10 games as a rookie, ran the ball 72 times for 420 yards and 2 TDs. Tim Tebow, who only started 3 games, ran the ball 43 times for 227 yards and six TDs. I would expect Bo to carry the ball 4 or so times per game and finish with north of 300 yards and three or four rushing TDs.

Don’t laugh, but I would not be surprised to see Bo put up similar numbers to Geno Smith as a rookie in terms of rushing stats. Smith carried the ball 72 times for 366 yards and 6 TDs as a rookie with the Jets.