The American Express Best Bets and Golf Odds:

Nick Taylor, according to Data Golf, had just a 0.4% chance to win the Sony Open in Hawaii as he headed to the 18th tee. He had missed two 4-foot birdie putts on consecutive holes at 15 and 16 and all hope looked lost. Taylor, playing in the third to last group, was two strokes behind and was 400-1 at FanDuel Sportsbook before hitting his second shot into the par-5 18th. 

Taylor chipped in for eagle from 59 feet out to get into a playoff with Nico Echavarria at 16 under. Taylor, now 3-0 for his career in playoffs on the PGA Tour, birdied the 18th on the second playoff hole for his fifth career PGA Tour victory. The Canadian also cashed for yours truly and this column as an outright 115-1 winner! 

This week, Taylor (75-1) and the PGA Tour head back to California, Palm Springs to be exact, to start the West Coast Swing with The American Express. 

Xander Schauffele was the pre-tournament favorite but was a late Monday withdrawal. Nine of the top 30 in the OWGR, including Taylor, who climbed from No. 73 to No. 29, are in this week’s field. 

Justin Thomas (12-1) finished T-3 here last year in the final pairing, watching fellow Alabama Crimson Tide golfer and then-amateur Nick Dunlap (50-1) win last year’s American Express as a 300-1 shot. 

Sungjae Im (14-1) finished T-3 in the season opener two weeks ago at Kapalua. 

At 18-1 are Patrick Cantlay, who finished runner-up here in 2021 to Si Woo Kim (35-1), and Sam Burns, who was tied for the lead with Dunlap on the 71st hole but put one in the drink off the island green to make double bogey. He also found the water on the 72nd hole to make another double and ended up finishing T-6. 

Tony Finau (25-1), Tom Kim (30-1), Wyndham Clark (33-1), Brian Harman (55-1), Billy Horschel (100-1) are also top-30 players teeing it up this week.

Another story to watch this week is 17-year-old Blades Brown (750-1), who finished 2024 as the No. 1-ranked American junior golfer. Brown is bypassing college golf and making his professional debut this week at The American Express on a sponsor’s exemption. 

The Event

The American Express has had many names since its inception in 1960 when it was established as the Palm Springs Classic. Most remember and still refer to this event as the “Bob Hope” since it bore the entertainer’s name from 1965 to 2011. Hope served as the event’s host and chairman of the board for many years and the event still carried his name until 2011, eight years after his death at age 100. The tournament’s winners are a “who’s-who” of golfing legends, including Arnold Palmer (1960, 1962, 1968, 1971, 1973), Jack Nicklaus (1963), Billy Casper (1965, 1969), Johnny Miller (1975, 1976) and Phil Mickelson (2002, 2004). In 1995, history was made as three U.S. presidents (Bill Clinton, George H.W. Bush, Gerald Ford) teed it up in the pro-am with host Bob Hope and then-defending champion Scott Hoch. Until 2012, the event was played over five days on four courses before switching to a four-day event using three courses. The pro-am also returned last year along with the three-course rotation, which means the cut comes after 54 holes with the low 65 players and ties making it to Sunday. 

The Field

Here is the full field for this week’s The American Express courtesy of PGA Tour Media:

The Courses

This year’s American Express will be played on a three-course rotation: The PGA West Stadium Course, the PGA West Nicklaus Tournament Course and La Quinta Country Club.

PGA West Stadium Course is played by each player in one of the three early rounds and then on Sunday. The track was designed by the legendary Pete Dye in 1986. It is a par-72 of 7,210 yards (10th shortest on tour) and usually plays one to two strokes harder than the Nicklaus and La Quinta courses. Water is in play on seven holes and there are 90 bunkers (sixth most on tour). Bermudagrass with Ryegrass comprise the fairways and rough while Poa overseed is the surface for the greens. The greens, at an average of 7,000 square feet (10th largest on tour), will run at an average speed of 11.5 on the stimpmeter.

The Stadium Course played an average round of 69.15 for the fourth easiest of 44 courses last year on tour.

Pete Dye courses are prevalent throughout the PGA Tour. Here are some other Dye designs on the schedule:

Austin Country Club – WGC Dell Match Play since 2016

Crooked Stick – 2012 and 2016 BMW Championship

Harbour Town – RBC Heritage

Ocean Course – Kiawah Island – 2012 and 2021 PGA Championship

TPC River Highlands – The Travelers

TPC Louisiana – Zurich Classic of New Orleans

TPC Sawgrass – The Players Championship

Whistling Straits – 2010 and 2015 PGA Championship

TPC Sawgrass is arguably the most comparable of the Dye designs. Other similar courses that are not Dye designs include TPC Summerlin, TPC Scottsdale, Silverado, Torrey Pines North and Narashino.

The PGA West Tournament Course was designed by Jack Nicklaus in 1987. It plays as a par-72 of 7,147 yards (ninth shortest on tour). Water is in play on six holes and there are 78 total bunkers on the Nicklaus layout. The fairways and rough are overseeded Ryegrass as the Bermudagrass is dormant. The greens, which will roll at a slow 10.5 on the stimpmeter, are the slowest of the three courses and are also overseeded with Poa trivialis. The greens are 5,500 square feet on average.

The Nicklaus Tournament Course ranked as the third-easiest course on tour last year with an average round score of 68.08.

There are also plenty of Nicklaus designs on the PGA Tour schedule if you’re looking for any designer correlation possibilities:

Annandale Golf Club – Sanderson Farms Championship through 2013

Glen Abbey – RBC Canadian Open – 2008, 2013, 2015-2018

Montreux Golf & Country Club – Barracuda Championship through 2019

Muirfield Village – Memorial Tournament

Old Greenwood GC – Barracuda Championship 2020

PGA National – Honda Classic

PGA West – Nicklaus Private – Humana Challenge through 2015

Sherwood Country Club – Thousand Oaks – World Challenge through 2013

Valhalla Golf Club – 2014 PGA Championship

Sherwood is the most comparable Nicklaus design. Other non-Nicklaus designs comparable to the Tournament Course include TPC Summerlin, TPC Scottsdale and Summit Club.

La Quinta Country Club is the third of three courses at The American Express. It is a private course designed by Lawrence Hughes, which opened in 1959 and was redesigned by Damian Pascuzzo in 1999. La Quinta is also a par-72 and the shortest (sixth shortest on tour) of the three courses at 7,060 yards. Water is in play on seven holes and there are 82 bunkers. Like the other courses in the rotation, Bermuda is the primary surface for this course; however, it is dormant and overseeded with Ryegrass in the fairways and rough and Poa trivialis on the greens. The greens, which roll 11 on the stimpmeter, are the fourth smallest on tour at an average of 4,773 square feet.

Last year, La Quinta played as the second-easiest course on the PGA Tour with a round average of 67.90.

Sherwood, Pebble Beach and TPC Summerlin are comparable designs to La Quinta.

The American Express Recent History/Winners

2024: Nick Dunlap (-29/259): 300-1

2023: Jon Rahm (-27/261); 13-2

2022: Hudson Swafford (-23/265); 150-1

2021: Si Woo Kim (-23/265); 55-1

2020: Andrew Landry (-26/262); 200-1

2019: Adam Long (-26/262); 600-1

2018: Jon Rahm (-22/266); 10-1*

2017: Hudson Swafford (-20/268); 66-1

2016: Jason Dufner (-25/263); 40-1**

2015: Bill Haas (-22/266); 30-1

2014: Patrick Reed (-28/260); 135-1

2013: Brian Gay (-25/263); 80-1***

2012: Mark Wilson (-24/264); 125-1

Playoff win over Andrew Landry – *

Playoff win over David Lingmerth – **

Playoff win over Charles Howell III and David Lingmerth – ***

Trends and Angles

Here are some winning trends for The American Express:

• 11 of the last 15 winners had odds of 55-1 or higher.
• 14 of the last 17 winners played in one previous American Express, and 12 of the last 16 had played the event at least twice.
• 12 of the last 17 winners played in the Sony Open before the American Express.
• 14 of the last 18 winners were age 32 or younger.

Statistical Analysis

Seven of the last eight winners at The American Express ranked ninth or better for Strokes Gained: Approach (PGA West Stadium Course only) during their respective winning weeks.

Strokes Gained: Approach — Average Per Round (2025 PGA Tour season)

1. Jhonattan Vegas 2.525
2. J.J. Spaun 2.025
3. Brian Campbell 1.887
4. Jackson Suber 1.515
5. Mac Meissner 1.513
6. David Skinns 1.338
7. Sam Stevens 1.310
8. Tom Kim 1.292
9. Tom Hoge 1.157
10. Charley Hoffman 1.068
11. Justin Thomas 1.061
12. Paul Peterson 1.052
13. Rikuya Hoshino 1.029
14. Sepp Straka 1.016
15. Zach Johnson 1.005

Strokes Gained: Approach — Average Per Round (2024 PGA Tour season)

1. Tony Finau 0.808
2. Tom Hoge 0.754
3. Lucas Glover 0.710
4. Doug Ghim 0.659
5. Justin Thomas 0.639
6. Kurt Kitayama 0.608
7. Henrik Norlander 0.571
8. Keith Mitchell 0.531
9. Si Woo Kim 0.506
10. Joel Dahmen 0.486
11. J.J. Spaun 0.469
12. Patton Kizzire 0.458
13. Jhonattan Vegas 0.433
14. Andrew Novak 0.430
15. Greyson Sigg 0.414
16. Mac Meissner 0.405

The courses in the rotation this week at The American Express are three of the four easiest courses on the PGA Tour. It could take 30 under to win this thing (it was 29 under last year). You have to make tons of birdies and/or eagles.

Birdie Or Better Percentage (2025 PGA Tour season)

1. Sungjae Im 44.44%
2. Jhonattan Vegas 41.67
3. Patrick Cantlay 40.28
4. Sam Burns 38.89
5. Cameron Young 38.89
6. Wyndham Clark 37.50
7. Max Greyserman 36.11
8. Justin Thomas 36.11
9. Harry Hall 35.42
10. Cam Davis 35.19
11. Lee Hodges 33.33
12. Jesper Svensson 31.94
13. Sepp Straka 30.56
14. Will Zalatoris 30.56
15. Davis Thompson 29.63

Birdie Or Better Percentage (2024 PGA Tour season)

1. Keith Mitchell 25.82
2. Harry Hall 25.77
3. Sam Burns 25.69
4. Wesley Bryan 25.33
5. Jacob Bridgeman 25.27
6. Joe Highsmith 25.15
7. Max Greyserman 25.10
8. Michael Kim 24.97
9. Wyndham Clark 24.88
10. Nick Dunlap 24.73
11. Patton Kizzire 24.62
12. Jhonattan Vegas 24.37
13. Tony Finau 24.36
14. Rico Hoey 24.33
15. Chandler Phillips 24.33

Three of the par-5s on the Nicklaus Tournament course are under 550 yards and all four at LaQuinta are just as short. Making pars on par-5s here is like making bogeys.

Strokes Gained Par-5s (Last 50 rounds)

1. Eric Cole 27.7
2. Billy Horschel 24.4
3. Davis Thompson 23.6
4. Patrick Cantlay 21.4
5. Jhonattan Vegas 21.1
6. Tony Finau 19.9
7. Rico Hoey 19.9
8. J.J. Spaun 18.5
9. Max Greyserman 18.3
10. Sungjae Im 17.1
11. Kurt Kitayama 17
12. Joe Highsmith 16.6
13. Patrick Fishburn 16.6
14. Alex Smalley 16.6
15. Ryan Gerard 16.4

These three courses were three of the four easiest on the PGA Tour last year. 

Total Strokes Gained — Easy Scoring Conditions (Last 50 rounds)

1. Sungjae Im 67.4
2. Patrick Cantlay 57.4
3. Justin Thomas 56
4. Davis Thompson 55.8
5. Ryo Hisatsune 51.3
6. Harry Hall 50.2
7. Ben Griffin 50
8. Daniel Berger 49.8
9. Beau Hossler 48.1
10. Doug Ghim 46.5
11. Chan Kim 44.8
12. Wyndham Clark 44.4
13. Sam Burns 41.8
14. Lucas Glover 40.9
15. Erik van Rooyen 40.8
16. Nico Echavarria 40

The greens this week are Bermuda, but it is dormant, so Poa Trivialis overseed make up the greens, but it is not the typical bumpy West Coast Poa that players will see at Torrey Pines next week. So it is more prudent to just examine putting stats from a holistic perspective instead of specifying a particular surface.

Strokes Gained Putting — Average Per Round (2024 PGA Tour season)

1. Taylor Montgomery 0.866
2. Max Greyserman 0.749
3. Mackenzie Hughes 0.742
4. Jacob Bridgeman 0.584
5. Ben Silverman 0.550
6. Jason Day 0.541
7. Vince Whaley 0.518
8. Sam Burns 0.496
9. Beau Hossler 0.496
10. Harris English 0.491
11. Aaron Baddeley 0.487
12. Wyndham Clark 0.476
13. Christiaan Bezuidenhout 0.459
14. Billy Horschel 0.442
15. Zach Johnson 0.420
16. Brendon Todd 0.409
17. Chad Ramey 0.406
18. Erik Van Rooyen 0.403

Players will play the Pete Dye-designed PGA West Stadium Course for two of the four days, so we can take a look at how they play historically on Dye designs.

Total Strokes Gained: Pete Dye Designs (Last 50 rounds)

1. Brian Harman 89
2. Sungjae Im 80.8
3. Justin Thomas 71.9
4. Patrick Cantlay 67.8
5. Tony Finau 55.3
6. Daniel Berger 51.8
7. Si Woo Kim 49.7
8. Christiaan Bezuidenhout 45.2 (46 rounds)
9. Bud Cauley 41.8
10. Kevin Streelman 35.9
11. Wyndham Clark 35.8
12. Matt Kuchar 34.7
13. Doug Ghim 31
14. Sam Burns 30.8
15. Adam Hadwin 29.9

Selections

Wyndham Clark (33-1, FanDuel)

Clark started 2025 with a T-15 at The Sentry, where he led the field for Driving Distance.

He was runner-up last year at The Players Championship on a Pete Dye design. 

Last year, he won the weather-shortened event at Pebble Beach after shooting 60 at Pebble for the third round, so he is a proven putter on greens with Poa. 

Sepp Straka (60-1, Bet365)

Straka finished 15th and 30th, respectively, on the Aloha Swing and ranked eighth in the field for approach play. 

He finished fourth here in 2020. 

The Austrian is a proven birdie-maker and ranks highly for Birdie Or Better Percentage. 

Brian Harman (66-1, Caesars Sportsbook)

Harman has finished third here twice (2017, 2022). 

Over the last 50 rounds, no player in the field rates better on Pete Dye designs. 

Adam Hadwin (75-1, FanDuel)

Hadwin is a two-time runner-up (2017, 2019) at PGA West and has finished in the top 6 in five of his last eight appearances here. 

He watched his fellow Canadian and close friend Nick Taylor win last week at the Sony. Remember it was Hadwin who went unrecognized when he ran onto the 18th green at the 2023 RBC Canadian Open to celebrate Taylor’s playoff win only to be tackled by overzealous security. 

Mac Meissner (90-1, BetMGM)

Meissner finished T-21 last week at the Sony but rated fourth in the field for Strokes Gained: Approach. 

He has continued his good approach play from last season that earned him three top-10 finishes for his rookie year on tour. 

Daniel Berger (92-1, Circa Sports)

Berger finished 2024 with a runner-up at the RSM Classic to keep his PGA Tour card. 

He missed the cut last week at the Sony. While he struck the ball well enough tee to green, the putter sent him home for the weekend. 

He has a sneaky good record on Pete Dye designs with a second and fifth at River Highlands, third at Harbour Town, a top-10 at TPC Louisiana, two top-10s in The Players and a top-10 at Crooked Stick. 

Adam Schenk (175-1, Circa Sports)

Schenk’s T-6 last week at the Sony Open was his first top-10 since last April at the Valero Texas Open. 

He does not have sparkling form as he has missed four of seven cuts, including the last three here, but he is a streaky player who has shown that he can build on a strong finish from the previous week. 

Placement markets, matchups, and/or other outrights will be available Wednesday at VSiN.com/picks