For the penultimate weekend slate of the 2024 NFL season, all four competing teams are represented. Always providing options, we have two elite quarterbacks hitting Over on reachable numbers, an MVP candidate hitting Under an absurd pregame number, a revenge play, and the most obvious touchdown pick given the odds on the board.
Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook
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Hurts has consistently produced passing numbers lower than this by design. But, factor in that in the only full game Hurts played against the Commanders this season, he threw for 221 yards and the other game he played is when he suffered an injury. A defense keying on shutting down Saquon Barkley will give Hurts opportunities over the top. If A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith each get a 50/50 downfield splash play, this number is much more reachable.
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The reduced investment on this bet is curious, because the Eagles are never going to double-cover Ertz. On the Washington side of things, Ertz has emerged as a legitimate threat for Jayden Daniels. He hasn’t topped this number in his two playoff games, but the Eagles would be the ultimate revenge play. He may need only two or three well-timed receptions to pay out.
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This is an absurdly high number to expect. Anything over 100 yards is worth debating. Adding 25 yards more as the bar to clear is asking too much. It’s the equivalent of putting a passing yardage number of 350.5 yards. Barkley has topped this number 50% of his games as an Eagle. He could go off for 200, but this number is just too high given the different scenarios that can happen.
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Last week, this same bet paid out +150. Maybe they received the memo but haven’t fully read it. In his last 18 postseason games, Kelce has scored 19 touchdowns with at least one TD in 14 of 18 games. None of those misses came against Buffalo. In his three playoff games in the Chiefs-Bills rivalry, Kelce has caught 29 passes for 343 yards and five touchdowns. Getting a positive return on investment (again) is worth the risk given these staggering pay-window history.
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History repeats itself for reasons. When it comes to playing Chiefs, Allen feels compelled to run if a pass play isn’t immediately open. In his last seven games against Kansas City, Allen has topped this number in six of them. In that span, he has rushed 10 times or more in six games and rushed for 88 yards in the one game he didn’t. Allen will likely feel the need to make plays with his legs to start his long-term legacy. If he runs 10 times — as is the norm, five will be improvisational … Allen could cover half this number on one well-timed scramble.
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