Like holiday leftovers, there’s a little bit of everything to choose from. This week’s picks include a 13-2 team that’s a home underdog on the moneyline, a pair of division rivals hitting Over their point projections, a pair of NFC teams hitting Under, and two road teams looking to potentially lock down their playoff positioning by winning and covering the spread.
Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook
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The Vikings are 13-2 and playing at home, where their only loss was by two points to the Detroit Lions. The Packers have lost to all four double-digit-win teams they have faced (twice to the Lions, the Philadelphia Eagles, and the Vikings at Lambeau Field). The Packers deserve to be in the playoffs, but the disrespected Vikings shouldn’t be a home underdog with the combination of a defense that forces turnovers and the big-playoff offense they possess.
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Chicago has taken a nosedive with nine straight losses. In that stretch, the Bears have scored more than 20 points just once and had 15 or fewer points five times. Seattle’s big scoring games tend to come when behind early and have to play up tempo. That shouldn’t be a problem here. This number has dropped from 43.5 points to 42 because those who set the line are figuring this one to be a 20-16 type game.
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The Chargers have allowed 20 or fewer points in 11 of 15 games, which means Justin Herbert doesn’t need to be lights-out to cover a 4-point spread. Of their nine wins, the Chargers have a record of 7-1-1 when it comes to covering. Of their last 11 losses, the Patriots have lost by more than four points in eight of them and have the potential of being blown out if Drake Maye struggles.
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The Bills have scored 30 or more points in eight of their last nine games and have allowed 20 or more points in six of their last seven. The Jets have scored more than 20 points in four of their last five games and allowed 25 or more points in five of their last six. Too many scenarios point to this being a resounding win for the Bills with a garbage-time TD or two for the Jets late in the game.
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Despite losing five of their last six games, the 49ers are relatively small home underdogs against the 13-2 Lions. Everyone knows about Detroit’s injury-riddled defense, but Lions put the hammer down on offense, and the 49ers don’t have the run-pass balance to hang with them. Detroit could win this one by double digits, which makes laying 3.5 points much easier to swallow.
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