By The Ringer StaffJan. 30, 2:30 pm UTC • 18 min

Wow, time flies like Mac McClung. The NBA season has officially crossed the halfway mark and we’re rapidly approaching the trade deadline and All-Star Weekend. To take stock of both where we’re going and where we’ve been, we gathered our staff to power rank the 10 teams most likely to win the title and answer some burning questions, including their dream trade proposals and updated Finals picks. Without further ado …

1. NBA Midseason Power Rankings: The 10 Teams Most Likely to Win the Title. 

A lot has changed since our preseason Power Rankings. To reassess where things stand after a shape-shifting first half, The Ringer asked its NBA staff to each rank the 10 teams they think are most likely to win the title. We compiled the votes and analyzed each team’s Finals chances. Here are the results. 

10. Minnesota Timberwolves (26-21, seventh in the West)

Tyler Parker: It was supposed to go better than this. After a trip to the 2024 conference finals, people expected Minnesota to hover near the top of the West all season. That hasn’t happened. The defense has been inconsistent and leaky. The offense can get muddy. Julius Randle has struggled to fill KAT’s shoes. Turns out making moves because you don’t want to pay someone is loser behavior. With respect, Mike Conley has been put on Wash Watch. Time just wins. As of this writing the Timberwolves are seventh in the West, at the top of the play-in, a half game up on the Mavericks. They need more cowbell. Still, there are many positives that bode well going forward. Minnesota’s been one of the healthiest teams in the league this season. Donte DiVincenzo’s found his stroke from distance. Naz Reid is still hardcore. And Rob Dillingham looks real twitchy out there, real bouncy. Something else in Minny’s favor: Anthony Edwards has been a playoff monster every time he’s been there. He asks for the weight. He wants it. Shows up to the postseason willing and able. You get the defense right and show up to a playoff series with him, you’re a load to deal with and have a puncher’s chance against anybody.

9. Houston Rockets (32-14, second in the West)

Zach Kram: Tatum. Jokic. Steph. Giannis. LeBron. Kawhi. Durant. Durant again. LeBron again. Steph again. In reverse chronological order, those are the last 10 scoring leaders for the winning team in the Finals; all 10 ranked among the very best players in the league. With rare exceptions, a megastar is practically required to lead an NBA team to a championship. But nobody on the Rockets comes close—according to The Ringer’s Top 100 rankings, the Rockets’ best player is Alperen Sengun, who ranks just 37th in the league, while their leading scorer is the inefficient Jalen Green, who’s not in the top 100 at all. Now, the Rockets resemble some of those rare exceptions—like the 2003-04 Pistons—as a physical, defense-first group. But for as wonderful a story as the Rockets’ rise has been, can anyone in Houston go toe to toe with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Nikola Jokic, or other All-NBA mainstays in crunch time in May? There’s no shame in still being a year away.

8. Milwaukee Bucks (26-19, fourth in the East)

Danny Chau: Setting aside the Doc Rivers of it all, it feels as though the Bucks are the dark-horse contender hiding in plain sight. It’s been practically ages since Giannis made it to the postseason intact, and the league has its issues with object permanence. The Bucks are finding a groove on offense as of late. It’s what you’d hope would happen in a season in which Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard are each scoring about as efficiently as ever—especially with Giannis more or less absorbing his teammate Khris Middleton’s best skill as a midrange marksman. There is a sort of old-school ethos in how strongly everything revolves around the Bucks’ two superstars, but if both Giannis and Dame can stay healthy, the gravity of their two-man game is enough to keep them in the hunt. And if they get there, they have something no one else does: Antetokounmpo at the peak of his powers.

7. Dallas Mavericks (26-22, eighth in the West)

Isaac Levy-Rubinett: Compared to even several teams ranked above them in this poll, the Mavericks don’t have much to prove. Their title blueprint—Luka Doncic, Kyrie Irving, a big-man tag team, and a bevy of well-fitting role players—has been well substantiated, and not just during last year’s run through the West. Even this season, Dallas has been gangbusters when healthy. Of course, Dallas is extremely not healthy, and it’s unclear when that might change. Doncic has been out with a calf injury since late December, he’s recently been joined by Dereck Lively II (ankle) and Maxi Kleber (foot) on the sidelines, and Dallas has slid to ninth in the West. At this point, the most relevant questions surrounding the Mavs’ title chances are metaphysical. Is their season cursed? Is there an antidote for this kind of snakebit season? On the one hand, it’s difficult to envision. NBA seasons are kind of like ships—as much as we pay attention to each and every game, it’s hard for an entire team to change course, let alone turn the whole thing around. But on the other hand, Luka is one of the NBA’s most capable captains. Last season’s Mavs remade their team at the deadline and ripped off a Finals run. Who’s to say this year’s version can’t get healthy and do the same?

6. Memphis Grizzlies (31-16, third in the East)

Rob Mahoney: Why not Memphis? They’ve got the defense, the depth, the star power, the shooting—and ultimately, the variety of ways to win. The Grizzlies have made themselves amorphous by design. They don’t need Ja Morant to go off for 30 to win, or even for him to play at all; this is a team that has found every rotation contingency possible, and squeezed out wins from circumstances of all kinds. That’s championship savvy. There are no easy roads through the West this season, but if any team is ready to bob and weave its way through the field to challenge OKC, it’s the Grizzlies.

5. New York Knicks (32-16, third in the East)

Howard Beck: The case for the Knicks is compelling: They have the NBA’s second-ranked offense, powered by one of the league’s best guard-center tandems (Jalen Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns). They have a pair of top-shelf 3-and-D wings (OG Anunoby and Mikal Bridges) and a truly elite hustle/glue/vibes guy (Josh Hart). The Anunoby-Bridges combo seems specifically designed to contain the Celtics’ superstar wings. But the Knicks’ overall defense—a strength one year ago—has wilted this season (currently 13th, between the Mavericks and Hawks). Their lack of depth is concerning—as is Tom Thibodeau’s (very much related) overreliance on his starters. Maybe Mitchell Robinson’s return will solve the defense and depth issues. But if not, it’s hard to see the Knicks getting through Boston or Cleveland.

4. Denver Nuggets (28-19, fourth in the West)

Kram: The Nuggets’ main strength is the same as when they won the title in 2023: Nikola Jokic is the best player in the world, and the Nuggets are awesome (plus-11.6 net rating) when he plays. Unfortunately, the Nuggets’ main weakness is the same as when they lost in the second round of the 2023-24 postseason: With Jamal Murray’s production in flux, the Nuggets don’t have the requisite firepower beyond Jokic, so they’re terrible (minus-10.4 net rating) when Jokic rests. Denver might have the shallowest roster of any contender, with just five above-average players, according to estimated plus-minus, and only one other player (a rejuvenated Russell Westbrook) even close to that threshold. Can a six-man team win the title? Even the similarly top-heavy 2022-23 Nuggets had seven reliable players in the postseason, which is better than the current group can muster. 

3. Cleveland Cavaliers (38-9, first in the East)

Michael Pina: If you’re going to compete for an NBA championship in this decade, explosive offense is non-negotiable. The Cavaliers have had the most efficient attack in the NBA for pretty much this entire season. They’re fourth in 3-point rate and first in 3-point percentage; significantly more potent with their leading scorer Donovan Mitchell on the bench. Doubts about their core four’s compatibility have been answered in Kenny Atkinson’s ball-hopping spasm of a system, in which they aren’t reliant on any one player or single lineup combination. The Cavaliers have options. The two questions I have for the playoffs are: 1. What happens if/when their 3-point shots don’t fall? 2. And can Darius Garland hold up on the defensive end, when opponents hunt him with a ruthlessness that’s typically reserved for the grind of a seven-game series? 

2. Boston Celtics (33-15, second in the East)

Matt Dollinger: See, the Celtics don’t win every poll at The Ringer. After starting the season 21-5, it felt like the reigning champions were going to suck all of the suspense out of this season. But they’ve gone 11-10 since, offering hope to a slew of contenders banking on variance in this year’s title race. That said, it’s hard to see the Celtics’ struggles as anything other than a midseason lull. They’ver been tinkering and toying all season, giving extended minutes to their bench in hopes of having a deeper reserve in the postseason. It’s hard to take the regular season as seriously as can be when you’re coming off one title and arguably the favorite to win the next. You’re trying to peak in June, not January. So while it’s tempting (believe me, very tempting) to think the door might be open, the Celtics are the only team that ranks in the top five on both offense and defense, they still have two of the top 15 players in the game, and they now have the confidence of a team that knows it can win the big one. Unfortunately for the haters (read: us), I think they’re just pacing themselves.

1. Oklahoma City Thunder (37-9, first in the West)

Chau: OKC is arguably the most unorthodox title favorite since the 2014-15 Warriors reset basketball’s collective brain chemistry. All-time elite defenses throughout history have generally excelled at securing and extending possessions. The Thunder, in spite of how they lost last year, still suck at rebounding, preferring chaos over stability—they remain one of the league’s worst rebounding teams, but you’d have to go back nearly 20 years to find a team with a higher opponent turnover percentage. They’ve created a distinctive blueprint for success, and we’ve yet to see the finished product. Maybe chaos really is a ladder: one to prepare them for heights that can be reached only when both of their 7-foot anchors in Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein are finally ready and able to coexist on the floor.

2. What was the biggest surprise from the NBA’s first half?

Mahoney: It’s still the Cleveland Cavaliers. I know it’s old news by this point, and I know they’re in a relative slump, but come on. They’ve dropped three of five and are still on pace to win 66 games—18 more than last season, with virtually the exact same roster. Kenny Atkinson is a wizard. Evan Mobley is the truth.

Kram: I mistakenly thought the Clippers would be terrible with Paul George gone and Kawhi Leonard injured. It would’ve been an unmitigated disaster if so because the Thunder have swap rights on the Clippers’ first-round pick this June. But Norm Powell’s “addition by subtraction” prediction came true! Powell should be the Most Improved Player favorite, and the Clippers should now be a playoff team. With Kawhi looking more like himself every game he plays, they might even win a round or two.

Pina: In two months, Paul George went from the greatest free agent signing in Philadelphia 76ers history to one of the worst contracts in the NBA. The 34-year-old hasn’t averaged fewer than 20 points per game since he was 22. He’s currently at 17.1, with a free throw rate that’s disturbingly low. This is the first time George’s team has been outscored with him on the court, too. Joel Embiid’s health issues tend to overshadow everything that’s gone wrong in Philly, but PG’s sharp left turn toward someone who’s producing at a level that isn’t worth half as much as he’s currently owed is almost equally worrisome. The Pistons would not trade Tobias Harris for him. 

Beck: Just about everything that’s happened in Sacramento: the good, the bad, the awkward, the absolute WTF of it all. Losing 19 of their first 32 games? Did not see that coming! Firing Mike Brown, who’d won Coach of the Year just two seasons ago? Nope! Botching the dismissal and creating a PR nightmare? Er, OK, maybe not quite as surprising. (Kangz gonna Kangz.) Winning 11 of their first 16 games under rookie head coach Doug Christie? No one could have predicted that, either. And then, after the last of those wins, a report: Star guard De’Aaron Fox wants to be traded, preferably soonish. Kangzzzz! I don’t know what’s coming next. I just know I feel bad for my friends in Sacramento, who have suffered enough Kings dysfunction. They deserve better.

Parker: Hard to pick. There’s Jaylen Wells. Zero fears from him. Did not know he had it like this. There’s the Rockets in general. Hungry and ahead of schedule. Mostly a team full of scrappers, plus you’ve got Amen Thompson Vince-ing his way into the hearts of gravity haters everywhere. Cosmic athleticism from Houston’s Thompson twin. The guy has access to many different portals. There’s Norm Powell throwing fireballs in the Intuit Dome. There are the early struggles from the Sixers and Suns and Heat. There’s the hard-playing Clippers and Pistons and the unexpected Russell Westbrook–Nikola Jokic chemistry. 

Yeah, that’s my answer. Jokic and Westbrook falling in love before our eyes. They can’t pass it to each other enough. You take it. No, you take it. It’s adorable, and I think they should do a podcast together. 

Chau: The bottom falling out for Philadelphia. After the Sixers’ first-round exit at the hands of the Knicks last season, I wrote about the burden of Joel Embiid’s dominance, which is housed in a body that could give way at any moment. It felt hyperbolic, even to me as I wrote it, but there was an overwhelming sense at the time that he was standing at the precipice of something. The precipice crumbled beneath the weight. Embiid has played 13 games all season and hasn’t suited up in weeks. The team is about four, five seconds from hitting eject on the season, one in which a pivotal first-round pick hangs in the balance. But if the Sixers have to sacrifice themselves at the altar for an Eagles Super Bowl victory, that’s probably a net win for the city.    

3. What’s one move you’d like to see a contender make before the trade deadline?

Kram: Cam Johnson to Oklahoma City. More than any other contender, the Thunder can afford the pick price that Brooklyn wants for Johnson, and I think they should pay it. Oklahoma City’s greatest potential playoff weakness is a lack of secondary scoring behind SGA if Jalen Williams isn’t quite ready to be a championship-level no. 2. In the midst of a career year, Johnson can help. At the very least, he’d add a crucial knockdown shooter to a rotation that ranks just 16th in 3-point percentage this season. Among Thunder players with at least 100 long-range attempts, only Lu Dort and Isaiah Joe are shooting better than 37 percent, but Johnson’s all the way up at 42 percent on 7.6 tries per game.

Beck: Can Denver find a way to pry Johnson from Brooklyn? I’m not sold on the Nuggets as constructed, the Jokic-Westbrook bromance notwithstanding. They could use another athletic wing who can defend and shoot 3s. Johnson fits the bill and could replace a lot of what Denver lost when Kentavious Caldwell-Pope defected to Orlando last summer.

Parker: Zion Williamson to Golden State. Obviously this won’t happen, but let me waste your time for a second. Dubs say bye to Jonathan Kuminga, Moses Moody, Podz? A pick? Picks? And you bank on your culture being able to turn Zion around. I mainly want this because I think Steph would make every attempt to get Zion comfortable. Mike Dunleavy Jr.’s a Duke guy, too. What about the brotherhood? Honor the brotherhood, Michael Jr. Plus, the Zion–Draymond Green relationship has the potential to be filled with drama and passive aggression, two of my most favorite things. It’s a swing, but Curry deserves it. We all saw the Olympics. He still has the goods. 

Chau: A trade for Chris Boucher, who has been approaching divinity since the start of 2025. The longtime Raptor has a ready-made postseason skill set that he’s honed through fluctuating roles in Toronto over the years. He’s an instinctive and proactive off-ball cutter, a solid defender with the length and athleticism to close out and recover, and a rock-solid offensive rebounder whose tenacity and nose for the ball supersede his rail-thin frame. And that’s not mentioning the fact that he’s shooting better than 53 percent from 3 on more than four attempts per game in January. Boucher’s heater has kept Toronto warm during this recent polar vortex, but it might finally be time to see one of the longest-tenured Raptors in franchise history show what he can do on a team like Denver, Houston, or Dallas.    

Mahoney: Robert Williams III to the Knicks. New York needs size on its bench badly, and reasonable people can disagree as to whether the Knicks should aim to get bigger on the wings or on the back line. Personally, I see a team in desperate need of some rim protection—not as a default look but as an option. Williams can play behind Towns or with him. He can guard in the action or swoop in from the weak side. At this point, Williams is a better bet to be an impact player this season than the still-recovering Mitchell Robinson—and that’s saying something given Time Lord’s extensive injury history.

Pina: It would be cool to see the impossibly deep Memphis Grizzlies make some kind of consolidation trade, if not a simple upgrade of what’s already in place. It’s unclear for whom exactly, but they could use another shotmaker who is comfortable playing fast and provides defensive versatility. Marcus Smart’s $20 million contract is useful enough to go get someone like Lonzo Ball, Cam Johnson, or Bruce Brown with draft equity attached. And if the Warriors are looking to sell, Memphis could add more salary and get Andrew Wiggins instead. 

4. Which second-half story line has your full attention?

Pina: What shape is Kawhi Leonard in? He’s shown flashes of brilliance since returning to L.A.’s starting lineup, handling significant defensive responsibilities and getting where he wants with the ball. Is it possible for him to peak in the spring, playing 35 minutes every night? If so, the Clippers are a sleeper to make some noise in the playoffs. 

Chau: My eyes are locked on Amen Thompson’s steady alpha ascent and how it shapes the Rockets moving forward. Thompson’s game-winner in Houston’s statement win over Boston is just the tip of the iceberg. He is a force multiplier on both sides of the court, yet his usage rate (even during his star-making January) is lower than that of some mid-tier starting centers in the league. With Amen’s havoc creation in the starting lineup, the Rockets pull off the rarest of feats in today’s game: They can boat-race teams on offense without having any reliable shooting. Imagine if they gave Thompson even more responsibility now that he’s settling into the flow of things. Imagine if they added even a modicum of consistent perimeter shooting at the deadline.  

Mahoney: The mystery-box Mavericks. In theory, Dallas is one of the most dangerous teams in the field: balanced, dynamic, and a worthy foil to the West-leading Thunder. Yet all of that is predicated on the Mavs getting healthy enough to play their best basketball at the right time, which feels less certain with every mounting injury. Luka Doncic will hopefully be back soon, but Kyrie Irving still has a bulging disc in his back, and Dereck Lively II could be out for months—and that’s to say nothing of the rotation minutes lost with Dante Exum still sidelined and Maxi Kleber recently joining the injury report. Are the Mavs a sleeping giant or just cursed?

Kram: Victor Wembanyama will almost certainly become the youngest Defensive Player of the Year in league history. But I want to see whether he becomes the first player since Dikembe Mutombo in 1995-96 to average four blocks per game; Wemby’s at 3.9 right And because he’s already had one game this season with double-digit blocks, I will always be monitoring his potential for the NBA’s first quadruple-double in more than three decades. 

Beck: Could the Sixers (as our guy Kram wrote last week) actually pivot from contender to (gulp) tanker? Would they? Should they? Might they? Is this actually a serious question? Well, yeah, it sort of is! As a refresher: The Sixers owe their 2025 first-round pick to the Thunder. But they keep the pick if it lands in the top six. And they currently hold the eighth-worst record in the league. If Joel Embiid can’t get (and stay) healthy, this season is toast anyway. Would you rather send a lottery pick (perhaps as high as seventh!) to OKC … or just pull the plug and try to ensure yourself a top-six pick? I can’t recall ever seeing a case quite like this, and I’m absolutely fascinated to see how the Sixers play it. 

Parker: Several enticing things at play during the second half of this season. Luka’s health feels pretty massive, though I don’t suppose that’s really a story line. Ditto for Ja Morant and his dings. Full strength, how good are the Grizzlies? I talked about the Rockets already and will talk about them again now—do they have enough gas to consistently break down elite defenses? Do the Magic have a late-season run in them now that Paolo Banchero’s healthy? Will Jokic win a fourth MVP? Even if he doesn’t, we’re kind of in the Jokic era now, yeah? And have been for some time? When did it start? I guess it should be the Jokic-Giannis era, really. Antetokounmpo’s once again Hulk-smashing everything unfortunate enough to lie in his path. Physically overwhelming, bonkers mix of mobility and muscle, plus a thirst for dominion. A healthy Giannis makes anything possible. He can still top out as the best player in the world. 

5. What is your updated Finals prediction?

Pina: Celtics over Nuggets. In seven. The All-Star break should do wonders for a Boston team that’s looked either exhausted or bored in every other game it’s played over the past several weeks. Their fundamentals are perfectly fine. Their depth, versatility, experience, and talent are top tier. Out West, the only team that can touch Nikola Jokic in a seven-game series is the Oklahoma City Thunder, but in that matchup, I’m hesitant to pick OKC without having seen Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein share the court. 

Kram: Thunder over Celtics. Before the season, I picked Celtics over Thunder. But OKC has been so dominant when it’s had even one of Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein available and Boston has looked rickety enough lately that I’ll flip that order now.

Chau: Thunder over Knicks. Oklahoma City will prevail in the battle for orange-and-blue supremacy. Both teams have real postseason questions that need answers, but they also both have the most latent upside left to mine in the second half of the season. 

Parker: Knicks over Thunder. This was my preseason pick and neither team has done anything to dissuade me so far. Both have been varying degrees of rad this season, capitalizing on a potent mixture of elite point guards, wise offseason moves, and continuity. But it’s not easy. The Celtics’ current slump doesn’t make them any less loaded; the champs must be respected. And, look, the Cavs. Cleveland has done nothing but exceed expectations at every turn. These guards, just a joy. Conan bows to Jarrett Allen. And hey, everyone, Ty Jerome could make you happy. If you’d just give him that chance, he could make you so, so happy. And then obviously Mobley’s, you know, some kind of dragon. I already said that with Giannis, all things are possible. But I’m sticking with the two teams I took in the preseason, Knicks-Thunder, though I’m changing my winner. The Knicks’ starters are gonna be worn to a nub if they make it to the Finals. Thibs is putting some hard city miles on those guys. And the Thunder are adding Chet to this historic defense at some point. Give me OKC. 

Beck: Thunder over Celtics. I picked this in the preseason, and I’m sticking with it. No team in the West can match the Thunder’s talent and depth. The Cavaliers are a worthy challenger to the Celtics—and will surely test them this spring—but I don’t think they have an answer for Tatum and Brown. (And no, I don’t think Boston’s January swoon is all that worrisome.)

Mahoney: Thunder over Celtics. That has less to do with Boston (which looks very much like a defending champion, both in clear dominance and midseason malaise) and more to do with the Thunder making a particularly convincing case. This is a historically stifling OKC team, and that’s without accounting for whatever Chet Holmgren is able to give OKC once he returns to the floor. They’re young, sure, but they’re feisty and resourceful—and don’t have the baggage of playing one long season into the next.