Doha, Buenos Aires, Delray Beach, Marseille tennis best bets for February 12th

This week, the top women in the world are in Doha for the Qatar TotalEnergies Open. This is the first 1000-level WTA event of the season, and I’ll be writing up tennis best bets for this one all week. Meanwhile, the men are scattered all over the globe, as there are 250-level tournaments in Buenos Aires, Delray Beach and Marseille. However, I’m only going to be writing up the 500-level events this season, so you’ll find my men’s plays on the Pro Picks page this week. That said, keep reading for my Doha best bets for Wednesday, February 12th, and check out the picks page for all of my action for Buenos Aires, Delray Beach and Marseille.

I’m going to quickly hit on some of my favorite picks below, and I occasionally add some picks throughout the day. Schedules can get wonky with the international nature of the sport, and I also like to see how odds are moving. That said, keep checking the picks page every couple of hours if you want more of my picks.

MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts are betting!

Daria Kasatkina vs. Jessica Pegula – Doha

I’m going back to the well with a moneyline play on Pegula on Wednesday. While I wish these odds were a little closer to -130 or so, I just can’t help but think that this is a great matchup for Pegula.

Kasatkina actually beat Pegula 6-4, 4-6, 7-6 (5) in a clay-court match in Charleston last April, but that was in the midst of a poor run of form for the American. In fact, the entire start of the 2024 season was rough for Pegula, as she made the bold decision to make some real changes to her game early in the year. That resulted in an up-and-down start to the year, and Pegula really didn’t find her best stuff until the summer. She then played some insane hard-court tennis to end the year. With that in mind, I think it’s fair to throw the Charleston match away, especially with Pegula having a 6-1, 6-0 win over Kasatkina on hard courts in 2023. That’s a little more relevant here. Pegula also beat Kasatkina in straight sets in Madrid in 2021.

Realistically, this is a matchup that Pegula should take advantage of. For as talented as Kasatkina is, her serve is a complete wild card and she can occasionally be a bit erratic from the baseline. Due to her insane ability to hit any shot in the book, Kasatkina can be guilty of racking up unforced errors by going for targets that are too small. Well, Pegula is more trustworthy than ever as a server, and she is so solid from the baseline. Pegula is just going to run everything down and hit the ball as flat and deep in the court as she can, waiting out errors from her opponent. And if that worked against Elina Svitolina on Tuesday, it should work against Kasatkina.

Bet: Pegula ML (-157)

Jelena Ostapenko vs. Jasmine Paolini – Doha

Paolini is a remarkable player when she’s playing her best tennis. She proved that in going to the French Open and Wimbledon finals last year. However, the Italian hasn’t played all that well to start 2025, as she has taken some ugly losses, doesn’t have many impressive wins to her name and her first serve percentage is down. With that in mind, Ostapenko should be able to give her a match on Wednesday.

Paolini is a very good defender, can play quick-strike tennis and brings a good overall intensity to every match. However, she does have a bit of a leaky forehand, so she struggles when there’s some pace coming towards that wing. Well, Ostapenko is going to bring some of that.

Ostapenko goes through more highs and lows than any player in tennis. Her “see ball, hit ball” style means insane swings from set to set — not even match to match. But the Latvian is playing some solid tennis right now, and I think her raw power from the baseline is going to test Paolini.

Ostapenko also happened to beat the Italian at the 2023 US Open, so we have seen her beat her before. So, I’m playing Ostapenko to win a set to win 1.5 units, but I’m also putting a little on the moneyline.

Bet: Ostapenko +1.5 Sets (-161 – 1.5 units) & Ostapenko ML (+150 – 0.5 units)

Additional Plays

I usually have A LOT MORE on the Pro Picks page. These plays count towards my record and have been a big part of my success in the past. Make sure you check them out. I’ll probably add a few more over there, so refresh that page throughout the day. My 250-level and Challenger-level action will live exclusively on the Pro Picks page.

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