It’s the fantasy semifinals! Congratulations for making it this far. You’re smarter and better looking than all the peons who have been eliminated, and you know in your heart that luck and chance have nothing to do with it.

While that’s not the case, we can try to make our best guesses educated, so we turn to fun stats like TPRR. Targets Per Route Run (TPRR) remains one of the most insightful metrics for understanding player opportunity. It tells us who’s running routes and who’s earning looks when they’re out there. As a refresher, TPRR is a simple metric that quantifies a player’s efficiency in earning targets. For wide receivers, a target is the most important underlying metric to predict consistent fantasy output, so a player’s ability to earn these targets at a high rate is key. Historically, a 20% TPRR is a good minimum threshold we want to see, and the best of the best consistently see TPRRs north of 30%.

Week 15 Leaders

CeeDee Lamb continues to prove that talent wins out, finishing with the highest TPRR of the week while catching passes from a surprisingly consistent Cooper Rush.

Malik Nabers continues to make the best of a horrendous situation in New York. We still don’t know whether his quarterback this week will be Drew Lock or Tim Boyle. Lock will get the nod if healthy, which is probably better for Nabers. It’s dicey, but Nabers is tough to sit against Atlanta.

Both DeAndre Hopkins and Xavier Worthy are on the leaderboard for Week 15, but Patrick Mahomes has a high ankle sprain. The report is that he’s planning to play in Week 16, so I’m assuming he’ll be on the field in a limited fashion. The narrative around Xavier Worthy is that he’s a major risk, but he saw 11 targets and an 80% snap share against Cleveland; Hopkins, on the other hand, has hovered around a 50% snap share most games. If Mahomes plays, I like my chances with Worthy against Houston.

Data: pff.com

Notes

Christian Watson and Jayden Reed had identical targets and routes in Week 15, and both had forgettable fantasy weeks. Green Bay, for some reason, seems happy to treat Reed like more of a gadget player, putting him on the field only 50-60% of the time. If you’re looking for upside, Jayden Reed is the more explosive player, but he carries the risk of being left out completely if the game script doesn’t favor three-receiver sets. Watson is little more than a flex play, but he has a more stable floor as the outside receiver on a good offense.

Jerry Jeudy has been on a tear since Jameis Winston took over in Cleveland. Unfortunately, his outlook gets a double whammy with Dorian Thompson-Robinson replacing Winston and Cedric Tillman (concussion) likely suiting up against Cincinnati. Jeudy (or Tillman, for that matter) makes for a great comeback receiver in DFS tournaments because of all these reasons (and a price increase will keep his roster % down), but he’s a risky bet in your league semifinals.

The Full List – Season TPRR Rankings