It’s the million-dollar question for Nebraska football entering Matt Rhule’s third season: Will the Cornhuskers be able to consistently punch teams in the mouth in 2025? As in, mid- to upper-tier Big Ten teams? If so, the payoff could be huge. They would certainly rise higher than last year’s 12th-place tie in the 18-member Big Ten. Substantially higher.

The Huskers showed very little ability to deal out punishment in 2024, except for their two best victories, over Colorado and Wisconsin.

NU’s final 2024 season totals show an embarrassing 3.8 yards per rush and 130.3 yards rushing per game. Both are the Huskers’ second-lowest totals since 2017, Mike Riley’s final year. Even with an excellent passing game, your ceiling is 5-4, and more likely 4-5, in the defensively stacked Big Ten if that’s all you can bring to the ground attack.

With second-half leads, Nebraska rarely could lean on its run game last year to wear down opponents and eat clock. The exceptions were CU and the shakier-than-necessary 20-15 bowl win over Boston College. NU has not come close to doing what Rhule specified upon his arrival, namely, running for 75 yards in the fourth quarter to close games out, which is often vital in a conference where it’s hard to get a secure halftime advantage.

There’s a reason the Colorado and Wisconsin games were so resoundingly successful, aside from the big early leads. On those two occasions, the Huskers temporarily walked Rhule’s talk and played physical offense, at least often enough to keep the opponent on edge. Against the Buffs, NU ran the ball 35 times for 149 yards and held the ball for 35 minutes; Dante Dowdell crunched for 74 yards with two touchdowns and broke trash-talking Shilo Sanders’s arm along the way. Against Wisconsin, the Huskers ran for 180 yards and had 33 minutes of possession as Emmett Johnson rushed for 113 yards and caught six passes for 85 yards. Those numbers aren’t even within shouting distance of Osborne/Solich-era rushing production, but with freshman Dylan Raiola at quarterback, they were more than adequate to control the game, and will be again.

In 2025, with sophomore Raiola calling the signals, at least 175 yards rushing a game would go a long way toward lifting the Big Red. Raiola will certainly improve, as will Jacory Barney, Carter Nelson, Luke Lindenmeyer and Heinrich Haarberg, and there’s significant incoming talent at the wideouts. I have much more confidence in Nebraska’s pass game next season than its ability to punch teams in the mouth. The run game is the X-factor that will decide whether Nebraska hovers at .500 or puts together a nine-win season.

I understand the excitement over transfer wide receiver Dane Key, but with the exception of Raiola, arguably the most valuable offensive skill player on the Nebraska football roster in 2025 will be Emmett Johnson — that is, if he shows as much improvement this season as he did in 2024. The loss of Dowdell will hurt. To be fair, the strength of NU’s run game last year was finishing drives. NU had 22 rushing touchdowns last year compared to 16 in 2023 and 17 in 2022, and Dowdell was the main reason with 12 rushing TDs.

Will EJ pick up the slack by himself in his junior year? He had only one rushing TD last year and two as a redshirt freshman. Kwinten Ives scored a touchdown against Boston College but remains a question mark. New blood could help; look to incoming St. Louis recruit Jamarion Parker and Conor Booth of Wahoo Bishop Neumann. The best possible news during fall camp would be Parker — who has a reputation as a home run hitter — getting lots of shout-outs from upperclassmen and pushing for playing time. Newly extended running backs coach E.J. Barthel has a lot of work to do heading into spring drills.

Whoever lines up at running back should have good blocking from a retooled offensive line. Having landed a pair of experienced starting linemen who transferred from Alabama (Elijah Pritchett) and Notre Dame (Rocco Spindler), and with homegrown experience returning in guard/center Justin Evans, tackle Gunnar Gottula and guard Henry Lutovsky, there’s no reason in the world (barring a couple of serious injuries) that the Husker o-line shouldn’t be significantly better than last year. There will be run-blocking help from Lindenmeyer. And that’s if Turner Corcoran and Teddy Prochazka don’t play a snap. That’s an above-average mix of proven talent and good potential for fourth-year offensive line coach Donovan Raiola to utilize. The keys, as always, will be how well the tackle positions hold up.

How high is Coach Raiola’s ceiling? We’ll find out soon enough. Nebraska used to be Offensive Line U. Those days seem to be long gone, but it would be nice to have an o-line that’s in the top 20 once again, and Raiola may be able to get them that far.

In fact, for the first time since Rhule came to Lincoln, there’s a real chance this fall the Husker o-line will be better than the defensive line, as new d-line coach Terry Bradden deals with the loss of Ty Robinson and Nash Hutmacher. The Husker offensive line made decent progress in pass blocking last fall. But it has made small, frustratingly incremental gains in run blocking over Raiola’s tenure as o-line coach. It’s overdue to show significant improvement this fall.

Nebraska will have a potent passing game in 2025, but a passing game is not something you can lean on. It’s time for the Huskers to finally reward years of steady support by a blue-collar fan base with a ground game that can score a knockout when it needs one.

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