By Sheil KapadiaFeb. 11, 3:19 pm UTC • 8 min

Welcome to the final edition of NFL Under Review for the 2024-25 season, my weekly column where I sound off on misguided narratives, inexplicable coaching decisions, and other topics around the NFL with an eye on what’s to come. This week, we’re taking a closer look at the advanced metrics behind the Philadelphia Eagles’ dominant win over the Kansas City Chiefs in Super Bowl LIX.

Jalen Hurts saved his best for last.

Around 10:45 p.m. local time Sunday, Jalen Hurts stood at his locker, lit up a cigar, took a puff, bounced to the music, and dapped up A.J. Brown, who was sitting in the stall next to him. What were they going to say about the quarterback now? Twenty or 30 years ago, the narrative would have been simple: Hurts is a winner. The Eagles have gone 46-20 in regular-season games with him as the starter, and they’re 6-3 in the playoffs, with two Super Bowl appearances and one championship. But we talk about quarterbacks differently now. We look at film and numbers and supporting casts and offensive lines and play callers. Every conversation is about how this quarterback might hypothetically look in that system. There’s nothing wrong with that kind of analysis! I like going through those exercises as much as the next person. But with Hurts, those conversations don’t matter anymore.

The truth is that the Eagles needed him on Sunday, and he came through. There have been times this season when Hurts just seemed like a cog in the Philadelphia football machine. He was asked not to screw things up. Avoid turnovers, convert in short yardage, scramble a few times, and everything would be fine. But that wasn’t the kind of game we saw in the Super Bowl. The Chiefs’ game plan was to shut Saquon Barkley down, and they were effective at that. Barkley ran 25 times for 57 yards, averaging 2.3 yards per carry. Based on rushing success rate, this was Barkley’s worst game of the season. The Chiefs defense did what no other defense had been able to do against the Eagles’ run game. Because of that, there’s an alternate scenario where we could have been looking at a low-scoring rock fight in the fourth quarter—but that would have happened only if the Eagles’ passing game had struggled.

The Eagles avoided that scenario because Hurts came through in a big way—with both his arm and his legs. The word clutch has been minimized in modern sports discourse because it’s usually hard to quantify. But in the Super Bowl, with the run game struggling and Patrick Mahomes on the other sideline, Hurts delivered his best performance of the season, based on expected points added per pass play. We’re talking about a 95th percentile game, based on every quarterback performance this entire season. In the NFC championship game against the Commanders, Hurts delivered his second-best game of the season—also a 95th percentile performance. If those back-to-back performances don’t qualify as clutch, then what does?

Hurts is a difficult quarterback to rank because his strengths and weaknesses are clearly defined. Either you’ll appreciate what he brings to the table—specifically, his downfield accuracy and problem-solving in the run game—or you’ll be unable to get past his flaws, like turning down throws in the middle of the field and taking sacks. But maybe there’s only one question that matters when it comes to evaluating quarterbacks: Can you win a Super Bowl with him? And with Hurts, we have our answer.

That was an all-time playoff run by the Philadelphia Eagles.

I just want to make sure you know how rare it is for a team to do that against the Chiefs since Mahomes became their quarterback. Before Sunday, in Mahomes’s 132 starts, the Chiefs had lost by more than eight points in just five games—or 3.8 percent of the time. They had lost by more than 16 points (three possessions) in just three games—or 2.3 percent of the time. Overall, the 18-point margin of victory was tied for third worst of any game in the Mahomes era. Of course, anyone paying attention knows that the Chiefs’ touchdowns in garbage time made the game look closer than it actually was. If we look at just the first three quarters, the Eagles’ 28-point lead was the largest by any opponent against Mahomes in a game he’s started. 

The victory capped off one of the most impressive playoff runs we’ve seen this century. The Eagles outscored their opponents by 68 points. Only the 2000 Ravens and the 2002 Bucs had higher margins of victory during their Super Bowl runs this quarter century. If we look at just the championship round and the Super Bowl, the Eagles outscored their opponents by 50 points—the most by any team in those two rounds since 2000. And it’s not like they got a break in their playoff path. Three of their four  opponents—the Packers, Commanders, and Chiefs—ranked in the top 10 in DVOA. (The fourth, the Rams, were 10th in offensive DVOA.)

One underrated aspect of this Eagles team—and something that head coach Nick Sirianni deserves credit for—is that it never beats itself. During the playoff run, the Eagles committed just one turnover (the Hurts interception in the Super Bowl). Meanwhile, they had 13 takeaways. The plus-12 turnover margin was the best for any team during a single postseason since 2000.

That was an all-time performance by the Philadelphia Eagles defense.

The Eagles’ postgame locker room celebration might not have been Vic Fangio’s scene. The 66-year-old defensive coordinator ignored the music (Drizzy Dre Killa, in case you were wondering), sidestepped the Champagne bottles, and found star defensive tackle Jalen Carter. They shared a brief moment, a handshake, and a fist pound, and then Fangio took a look at the crowd dancing in the middle of the room. He checked his watch and then exited. His work here was done.

Any future conversation about these Super Bowl champion Eagles will have to include a Fangio mention within the first 60 seconds. He took a defense that ranked 29th a year ago and turned it into the NFL’s best unit. But great defenses often fall to great quarterbacks. We’ve seen it over and over again throughout NFL history. That’s not what happened here. Instead, Fangio delivered his masterpiece—shutting down Mahomes and Andy Reid to a degree we’ve never seen before. He didn’t blitz a single time and played tight zone coverage on almost every snap. It was the perfect formula. The Eagles’ coverage forced Mahomes to hold on to the ball, and the four-man pass rush dominated.

In terms of EPA per pass play, this was the second-worst game of Mahomes’s entire career. But again, the garbage time drives mask just how bad it was. If we look at Mahomes’s performance through the first three quarters, this was the worst game of his career based on both EPA per pass play and success rate. Wait, there’s more. If we look at a sample of 553 qualifying quarterback games this season, Mahomes’s performance through the first three quarters ranked 539th. Think of the worst quarterback performances you’ve seen this season—that’s what the Eagles made Patrick Freakin’ Mahomes look like! 

This game was decided in the first half when the Eagles took a 24-0 lead, spurred by two Mahomes interceptions. The Chiefs’ offensive performance in the first half was the worst by any team in the NFL this season based on both offensive success rate and EPA per play. That’s out of a sample of 570! Again, think of the worst offensive first half you watched this season. Fangio and the Eagles made Mahomes and Reid look way worse than whatever is in your head. If we look at every Super Bowl performance since 2000, that game by the Chiefs offense ranked 45th out of 50 in EPA per play. 

OK, I don’t think you need any more fancy numbers. You get the point. That was an all-time performance by the Eagles defense, especially considering that they were facing off against a coach-quarterback combination that will go down as one of the greatest of all time.

The Kansas City Chiefs need to get their offense back.

I’m really trying hard not to overreact here. The Chiefs won back-to-back Super Bowls and got back a third time. There’s a reason no franchise has three-peated during the Super Bowl era. It’s really, really hard. So please don’t take this as a sign of panic. As long as Mahomes is their quarterback, the Chiefs will have a chance to win championships. Now that I’ve said that, this isn’t really the version of the Chiefs offense we want to keep watching, is it?

You probably know what I’m talking about, but a little reminder, just in case. Mahomes’s average pass this season traveled 6.4 yards. That ranked 34th out of 36 quarterbacks—ahead of only Gardner Minshew and Tua Tagovailoa. He threw deep just 7.4 percent of the time, which ranked 31st. In many respects, the way Mahomes played this season was admirable. He had to adjust because the Chiefs had major issues at offensive tackle and the pass catching group was uninspiring—especially after wide receiver Rashee Rice suffered a season-ending injury. Even under those circumstances, the Chiefs put together an above-average offense in terms of efficiency. The problem? It lacked explosiveness. The Chiefs produced an explosive gain on just 8.9 percent of their offensive plays, which ranked 29th—ahead of only the Giants, Raiders, and Browns. For any team, that’s not where you want to be. But for a team with Mahomes, that’s really not where you want to be.

The Chiefs have tried to figure things out. They drafted wide receiver Xavier Worthy last year, signed Marquise Brown in the offseason, and traded for DeAndre Hopkins during the season. On the offensive line, they spent a second-round pick on tackle Kingsley Suamataia last year. In 2023, they used a third-round pick on Wanya Morris. They signed offensive tackle Jawaan Taylor to a big contract. They have committed the resources to that unit. Yet when you look at the roster and watch the games, it’s clear that the offensive tackle and wide receiver positions just aren’t good enough. It couldn’t be any more obvious what’s limiting the ceiling of this offense.

So if I were the Chiefs, those are the areas where I would invest my resources this offseason. I’d be looking to build an offense that keeps defensive coordinators up at night because Mahomes could connect on a 50-yard bomb on any given play. An offense that properly highlights his one-of-a-kind talent. Not one that calls for him to be perfect on a series of 6-yard completions. I want to see an offense that reminds us what Mahomes is capable of, not one that asks him to make up for roster shortcomings. Let’s see if the Chiefs can get back to that in 2025.

Sheil Kapadia

Sheil Kapadia writes about the NFL and hosts two podcasts: ‘The Ringer NFL Show’ and ‘The Ringer’s Philly Special.’ Prior to joining The Ringer in 2022, you could find his work at The Athletic, ESPN, and Philadelphia Magazine.