Steph inks extension: Why Murray and the Nuggets made this deal now
Which NBA stars are signing deals?
The summer’s first major domino fell when free agent wing Paul George agreed to a four-year max contract with the Philadelphia 76ers. More moves soon followed, including the 76ers agreeing with guard Tyrese Maxey on an extension, the New York Knicks losing center Isaiah Hartenstein to the Oklahoma City Thunder and Tobias Harris joining the Detroit Pistons.
The first day of free agency, meanwhile, still saw plenty of movement. The Golden State Warriors declined the team option of Chris Paul, after which the 39-year-old guard agreed to join Victor Wembanyama and the San Antonio Spurs. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope agreed to a three-year, $66 million deal with the Orlando Magic, while Jonas Valanciunas agreed to a three-year contract with the Washington Wizards. Elsewhere, James Harden agreed to return to the LA Clippers on a two-year deal, and Kevin Love is returning to the Miami Heat after agreeing to a two-year contract.
Ahead of the NBA draft, two free agents decided to return to their home teams. Center Bam Adebayo agreed to a three-year, $166 million extension to keep him in Miami, while forward OG Anunoby signed a five-year, $212.5 million deal with the New York Knicks, who also traded for Mikal Bridges.
What other major deals are getting done? Which contracts will get an “A” grade? ESPN NBA Insider Kevin Pelton reacts to the latest contract news and analyzes what it means for the 2024-25 season and beyond.
Jump to a major deal:
Paul George to 76ers
Klay chooses Mavericks
Tatum lands richest deal in NBA history
Mitchell gets 3-year extension
CP3 joins Wemby, Spurs
Hartenstein leaves Knicks for OKC
Grade: Pass
Back in April, it was worth wondering whether Murray might prefer to wait on an extension in hopes of making an All-NBA team this season, which would make him eligible for a supermax deal starting at up to 35% of the cap rather than his 30% starting point on this contract.
After Murray shot just 40% in the Nuggets’ playoff run, which ended with a Game 7 home loss to the Minnesota Timberwolves, that question started to shift. Particularly in the wake of a poor Olympic run for Murray, who averaged just 6.0 points per game on 29% shooting while backing up Shai Gilgeous-Alexander for Team Canada, it became fair to ask whether Denver would feel comfortable offering him the full max. That’s enough of a reason to sign this extension despite the concerns his performance this summer created. On the pass/fail grading rubric that makes more sense for extensions than letter grades, consider this a pass.
Next up for the Nuggets, presumably, is forward Aaron Gordon, who becomes eligible to sign an extension on Sept. 27. Although Gordon has two years remaining on his contract, a player option would allow him to test free agency next summer at age 29.
Even after the departure of Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, retaining Gordon will be expensive for Denver. With Murray on the books at a projected $46.4 million, the Nuggets are just $11 million from the 2025-26 luxury-tax line before factoring in Gordon’s next contract. A deal starting in the $30 million range for Gordon would push Denver deeper in the luxury tax than ever before, requiring financial commitment from an ownership group that has been reluctant to provide it in the past. To some degree, Murray is an unusual candidate for a 30% max deal. He has never made an All-Star team, let alone All-NBA. At the same time, Murray more than justified his next contract with his 2023 playoff run, when he averaged 26.1 points and 7.1 assists on 47/40/90 shooting splits as the Nuggets won the championship.
If not quite at that exultant level, Murray’s 2023-24 regular season was the best of his career. Murray shot a career-high 42.5% from 3-point range, maintaining solidly above-average efficiency as a scorer on the highest usage rate (28%) of his career while also handing out a career-high 7.4 assists per game.
So long as Murray continues to produce at that level, he’ll be well worth the max over the four seasons of his extension, which takes him through age 32. During Murray’s playoff run, he was affected by a calf strain suffered in the first round as well as an elbow injury over the last two games of Denver’s series with Minnesota.
Nobody has more information about Murray’s health than the Nuggets, so if they’re confident enough to offer a max extension, that’s a good sign for his chances of bouncing back. (One caveat: Denver signed forward Michael Porter Jr. to an extension just before he underwent back surgery in November 2021.)
Getting Murray’s deal done now eliminates any risk of him leaving via free agency next summer. Although few teams project to have cap space to offer Murray anything near his max, the availability of a championship-proven point guard in his prime could have compelled teams like the Houston Rockets to get more aggressive clearing space.
Add in the impossibility of replacing Murray’s chemistry with Nikola Jokic, and that’s more than enough reason to make the deal.
Grade: A
With two years remaining on Curry’s contract, the interesting question became less about whether he would extend with the Warriors and more about when that might happen. As ESPN’s Bobby Marks has explained, the over-38 rule prevented Curry from adding more than one year to his deal at the max this summer.
Because the over-38 rule only applies to contracts of at least four total years, including both the existing ones and those added by an extension, the situation would have been different next summer. If Curry had only one season left on his contract, he could have signed a two-year, max extension in summer 2025 that would take him through the 2027-28 campaign and age 40.
The upside of extending now is that Curry is still performing at a max level, coming off an All-NBA third-team nod and winning the Jerry West Clutch Player of the Year Award in addition to his heroics to ensure Team USA won gold in Paris earlier in August.
At the same time, given Curry’s importance to Golden State’s dynasty, he probably deserves the max as long as he wants to keep playing. Beyond the value of having Curry finish his career with the only franchise he’s ever played for, there’s also the fact that his four-year, $44 million rookie extension that covered both of his MVP campaigns facilitated the Warriors keeping their core intact while adding Kevin Durant.
The question for the Warriors remains the same: How can they maximize the remainder of Curry’s career? The Olympics showed how elite he remains at age 36, particularly in a setting where he doesn’t have to carry the entire load. Golden State was unable to deal for either Paul George or Lauri Markkanen as co-stars this summer and remains on the hunt for another go-to scorer who can take some of that responsibility away from Curry.
It’s possible that Jonathan Kuminga could emerge as that player after averaging 18.6 PPG on 54% shooting from Jan. 1 onward. Extension negotiations with Kuminga, who is eligible for a deal through Oct. 21 ahead of restricted free agency next summer, figure to be far trickier than those with Curry.
Grade: B
Quietly, Zubac has developed into one of the league’s more reliable centers. He’s coming off averaging a career-high 11.7 points, making 65% of his shots — primarily around or above the rim — for the second time in the last four seasons.
More impressively, opponents shot just 50% on attempts within five feet with Zubac as the primary defender, lowest among all players who defended at least 100 of them, according to NBA Advanced Stats. We need to see more seasons like that before considering Zubac a top-tier rim protector, but he has firmly established himself as a quality defensive big man after ranking in the top 10 by that metric the previous season.
Given that track record and Zubac’s reliability — last season’s 14 games missed, primarily because of a calf strain, were his most since joining the Clippers at the 2019 trade deadline — he would have been a candidate for the kind of contract we saw Nic Claxton (four years, $100 million including incentives) get this summer. Claxton is a couple of years younger and more versatile defensively than Zubac, but with the cap increasing, you could make a case Zubac deserves similar money.
Zubac instead locked in for a bit less than $20 million per season — the most the Clippers could offer on an extension — choosing the security of the biggest contract of his career over the upside of testing free agency. From that standpoint, the value of this deal looks like a win-win. So does the three-year length, which pays Zubac through age 31.
The Clippers should be able to fit Zubac’s extension into their post-Paul George cap sheet. With 10 players under contract, including player options for Nicolas Batum and Kevin Porter Jr., the Clippers remain more than $30 million away from the projected luxury-tax line. That should allow them to extend or re-sign their other key free agent, wing Terance Mann, and still have access to their non-taxpayer midlevel exception.
The only losers here are teams with cap space that continue to see the 2025 free agent class picked over by extensions.
Grade: D+
McConnell’s extension is the second for the Pacers this summer coming off a run to the Eastern Conference finals, following one for starting guard Andrew Nembhard. Add in new contracts for free agents Pascal Siakam and Obi Toppin, and Indiana has committed to more than $300 million in new salary since June. That number doesn’t include upcoming deals for Tyrese Haliburton and Aaron Nesmith, who are starting extensions this season they signed last fall.
The notable exception to that group is starting center Myles Turner, the lone remaining Pacer who saw at least 200 minutes of playoff action who is not yet under contract for 2025-26. Because Turner signed a two-year extension in January 2023, he is not eligible for an extension now and will head to unrestricted free agency next summer.
Adding a $10 million starting salary for McConnell on this extension — presuming a maximum of 8% raises from year to year — gives Indiana nearly $170 million in committed salary for 12 players in 2025-26, including team options for Kendall Brown and James Wiseman but not the team’s first-round pick.
With the 2025-26 luxury tax projected to start at $188 million, that leaves little wiggle room for the Pacers to re-sign Turner and avoid the tax. Already, Turner is making nearly $20 million this season, and that’s on a contract where Indiana paid upfront using a renegotiation of his 2022-23 salary in exchange for lower figures during the extension. Add in the projected maximum 10% increase in the cap, and Turner can reasonably expect a raise on his next deal.
All of that leaves the Pacers with three potential scenarios: paying the luxury tax for the first time since 2005-06, letting Turner walk in free agency, or trading a player to create additional salary flexibility.
Paying the tax might seem palatable now in the wake of an unexpected playoff run. Before last spring, Indiana hadn’t won a postseason series in a decade and was coming off three seasons in the lottery. Things might not look quite as rosy next summer, as the Pacers contend with an improved and more importantly healthier Eastern Conference. It’s fair to question Indiana ownership’s willingness to pay a projected tax bill when Turner hits free agency.
Losing Turner feels like a worst-case scenario for the Pacers. His backup, Isaiah Jackson, will also be a free agent barring another extension before the Oct. 21 deadline. Indiana relied heavily on Turner to space the floor on offense and protect the rim on defense, and while his rim protection numbers weren’t as strong as in years past when he was an All-Defense candidate, the Pacers would be troublingly small without Turner. Certainly, it doesn’t make sense to prioritize McConnell — a backup to the team’s best player — over re-signing Turner.
That leaves the last path as seemingly the most likely route. None of the contracts Indiana signed this offseason looks challenging to trade at the moment. If 2023 lottery pick Jarace Walker develops into a rotation-caliber player in year two, Toppin could end up as the odd man out. It could even be McConnell, a critical part of the Pacers’ strong second unit last season but also something of a luxury behind Haliburton.
After all, the ability to play both guard spots seemed to be a key piece of Nembhard’s value on his extension. Extending McConnell keeps Nembhard largely at shooting guard, where Indiana also has 2022 lottery pick Bennedict Mathurin. A Mathurin trade heading into the final season of his rookie contract could be another way for Indiana to shed payroll, though it would be a disappointing outcome given high hopes for Mathurin as a rookie.
If the Pacers eventually elect to trade McConnell to solve their financial crunch, it would be interesting to see whether he holds more value with this extension than on an expiring, $9.3 million contract. McConnell was one of the NBA’s best backup point guards last season, averaging a career-high 10.2 points and finishing seventh in voting for Sixth Man of the Year.
At the same time, McConnell’s unorthodox game — built largely on hyper-accurate midrange shooting with few 3-pointers — and age could be concerns for teams considering a trade. A four-year extension will take McConnell through age 37.
Given those concerns, I probably would have waited on a McConnell extension. Indiana could have struck this deal at any point up through next June 30. By then, the Pacers will have more information about their long-term financial planning, and I think it’s unlikely McConnell’s value dramatically increases even with another strong season.
Grade: A-
This atypical deal seems like it should benefit both Markkanen and the Jazz. Utah used $24 million of its league-leading cap space to renegotiate Markkanen’s salary up from $18 million to the max he can make this season, $42 million. In exchange, Markkanen agreed to an extension that will pay him a bit less than the maximum $232 million he could have made over the following four seasons.
Ultimately, it seems like Markkanen and the Jazz agreed to meet in the middle, with Markkanen giving back about half the $24 million he’ll get up front in terms of potential future salary. That’s still a great outcome for Markkanen, who will make more total over the next five seasons ($238 million) than he would have by playing out this campaign and re-signing for the max next summer as a free agent ($226 million). He’ll also get more of that money up front.
From Utah’s perspective, this is a way to use cap space now to both lock Markkanen in on a long-term contract and pay him a little bit less in the final three years of his extension, when new contracts will start to come for the Jazz’s recent first-round picks.
The biggest concession Utah made in terms of timing was giving Markkanen a de facto no-trade clause this season. Because Markkanen chose not to sign the extension Tuesday, the first day he was eligible, it will now prevent him from being traded for the next six months — a period that will extend past the deadline next Feb. 6. Having surely already explored the potential trade market for Markkanen, the Jazz knew they’d rather keep him. And if they decide to pivot down the road, having Markkanen under contract through 2028-29 should give him plenty of value to other teams.
I’m most intrigued by what Utah plans to do with the $10 million-plus in remaining cap space the team has hoarded. The Jazz have yet to sign No. 32 pick Kyle Filipowski, the only college player drafted before pick 50 who remains unsigned. They also have opted not to complete a two-year, $10 million contract with free agent Drew Eubanks reported by ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski on the second day of free agency.
Because Utah could sign Eubanks using the room midlevel exception, the Jazz might first use that cap space on an outside free agent or adding a salary via trade. It’s unclear whether Utah has something specific in mind or is simply waiting to see whether any opportunities come up before the start of training camp.
With Markkanen on the books, the Jazz likely won’t have substantial cap space next summer, barring a trade. Utah could dip back into free agency in 2026, when the contracts of veterans Jordan Clarkson, John Collins and Collin Sexton all expire. Markkanen is the only player the Jazz currently have under contract for more than $8 million for 2026-27.
By that pivot point, we should have a much better idea of Utah’s direction. I don’t think extending Markkanen will prevent the Jazz from pushing for a lottery pick this season. With five first-round picks from the past two drafts on the roster, none of whom will turn 21 until after opening night, Utah is in for plenty of lumps in a difficult Western Conference despite Markkanen’s All-Star-level production.
Soon, the Jazz should have a better idea of which of those players are keepers and whether the 2025 draft can yield someone with superstar potential. Utah won’t likely be close to a playoff return when Markkanen’s extension kicks in next season, but by the end of it, the Jazz can reasonably hope to surround him with enough talent to contend.
Grade: A
Like the Milwaukee Bucks signing Gary Trent Jr., this is an atypical minimum signing that could be transformational for a team incapable of paying another team’s free agent anything more than the minimum.
Jones started all 66 games he played for the Washington Wizards last season, averaging 29.3 minutes per game, after being one of the NBA’s top backup point guards during his four years with the Memphis Grizzlies. I had him projected as one of the top 20 free agents on the market entering his age-28 campaign.
This summer proved an especially difficult market for point guards. Just two unrestricted free agents who exclusively play the point have signed for more than the minimum: James Harden (two years, $70 million) and Chris Paul (one year, $11 million). A number of proven veterans — Kyle Lowry, Delon Wright and previous Phoenix pickup Monte Morris — had to settle for the minimum.
As tempting as it is to immediately blame the NBA’s new collective bargaining agreement for that outcome, it’s worth taking a deeper look at the situation. Of the seven teams that used cap space this summer (Charlotte, Detroit, Oklahoma City, Orlando, Philadelphia, San Antonio and Utah), only the Spurs needed a point guard. Once the Magic decided to keep Jalen Suggs as their starting point guard alongside newcomer Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, and San Antonio signed Paul, cap space was no longer a realistic option for point guards.
Additionally, the teams that had the ability to offer Jones and other point guards more than the minimum using exceptions were primarily looking for backups to proven starters. Jones made it evident in his comments to ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski on Saturday that he valued the ability to start in Phoenix. It’s unclear whether Jones might have turned down more lucrative offers that would have made him a backup.
Starting Jones will be an adjustment for the Suns, who did not use a traditional point guard last season, with Bradley Beal and Devin Booker sharing those responsibilities alongside sharpshooter Grayson Allen. Adding Jones presumably pushes Allen to the bench, which will sacrifice floor spacing for playmaking and organization. (Jones did shoot 41% from 3-point range last season, but is just 37% for his career beyond the arc and averaged 4.8 3-point attempts per 36 minutes as compared to 6.4 for Allen.)
A high turnover rate (15% of all possessions, sixth worst in the NBA) was a key reason Phoenix finished a disappointing 10th in offensive rating despite having three top scorers in Beal, Booker and Kevin Durant. The Suns couldn’t have asked for a better duo to help improve there than Jones and Morris, who rank first (Jones, 5.56) and second (Morris, 5.04) in career assist-to-turnover ratio since the league began tracking player turnovers in 1977-78.
The addition of Jones could make the decision tougher for new Phoenix coach Mike Budenholzer about how to close games. Presuming the Suns don’t move Durant to center in those situations, they’ll be choosing between having a point guard in Jones, a shooter in Allen or a perimeter stopper in Royce O’Neale or Josh Okogie in crunch time.
Given Jones’ size (6-foot-1) and the fact that the ball will typically be in the hands of Phoenix’s stars late in games, he might not always be the best finishing option for the Suns. That’s why I’ve long been skeptical that Phoenix should use some of its limited draft picks to upgrade at point guard. Signing Jones is the best possible outcome, getting the Suns a quality point guard without needing to give up anything at all.
I don’t think adding Jones alone pushes Phoenix into the top tier of the Western Conference, populated by last year’s four second-round teams: Dallas, Denver, Minnesota and Oklahoma City. I do think it puts the Suns above the Golden State Warriors (pending a possible trade for Lauri Markkanen), Los Angeles Lakers, Memphis Grizzlies and New Orleans Pelicans at the head of the line to pounce on home-court advantage should one of the projected top four stumble.
Compared to where Phoenix started the offseason after a first-round sweep at the hands of the Timberwolves, that’s a terrific outcome for the Suns.
Grade: D
I can see the logic behind the Nuggets bringing in Westbrook to prop up a second unit that has consistently struggled when Nikola Jokic is on the bench.
Denver was outscored by 8.6 points per 100 possessions during the 2023-24 regular season when the MVP rested, according to NBA Advanced Stats. And the solution that had worked well in the 2023 playoffs — staggering Jokic’s minutes and those of Jamal Murray, while playing starting power forward Aaron Gordon as a backup center — failed this year. The Nuggets had a minus-20.9 net rating in the 94 playoff minutes Jokic did not play.
Adding Westbrook certainly gives Denver’s bench units an identity. They’ll relentlessly push the ball at altitude, then probably give him wide latitude to create offense whenever Murray is also resting. Westbrook’s teams have always gotten far more transition opportunities with him on the court, which should fit well alongside young reserves Julian Strawther and Peyton Watson, who can fly up and down with Westbrook. And Westbrook’s rebounding could help the Nuggets, who saw their defensive rebound percentage drop from 74% with Jokic to a ghastly 66% without him during the 2023-24 regular season.
I was a little disappointed to learn that playing fast hasn’t actually helped Westbrook perform better at mile high in the past; his true shooting percentage in games played in Denver (.527) is slightly worse than his overall career average (.529).
Within the half court, the Nuggets would benefit from getting the more reserved Westbrook who used a career-low 25% of plays last season with the LA Clippers. That resulted in more accurate shooting for Westbrook, whose 51% shooting on 2-point attempts was his second-best mark. Despite making just 27% from 3s, Westbrook remained as efficient as ever.
Still, I’m dubious of the fit when Westbrook starts to play with Jokic and Murray. Taking the ball out of the hands of perhaps the NBA’s best pick-and-roll duo — Jokic screening for Murray yielded 1.13 points per chance last season, second among the 27 pairings that ran at least 500 ball screens according to Second Spectrum tracking — is a mistake. And Westbrook lacks the ability to space the floor for Denver’s stars.
As ESPN’s Zach Lowe wrote about Friday using my research, the Nuggets’ low rate of 3-point attempts was already in tricky territory last season. Putting Westbrook with the starters might mean too little shooting to work.
I’d find adding Westbrook much more worth the risk if this was a one-year, minimum contract. Instead, Denver agreed to give Westbrook a 2025-26 player option, bucking the trend this summer.
After 12 players got player options on minimum contracts as free agents in the summer of 2023, including the Los Angeles Lakers (3) and Phoenix Suns (5) making aggressive use of them, Kevin Porter Jr. is the only other player to get a player option at the minimum this year. That’s true in part because so many of those options backfired, with six players (and all three Lakers) exercising them for 2024-25 and another two (Thomas Bryant and Damion Lee) replacing them with new one-year, minimum contracts.
Besides potentially putting the Nuggets on the hook for Westbrook’s $3.5 million salary in 2025-26 if he decides to exercise the option, giving him a two-year deal also impacts Denver’s luxury tax bill now. The Nuggets will pay an extra $4.5 million in salary and taxes as compared to signing Westbrook to a one-year, minimum deal where the NBA pays the difference between the two-year minimum ($2.1 million) and Westbrook’s actual salary ($3.3 million).
If giving Westbrook a player option was the only way to get him to Denver, I would have passed on the deal entirely. Remember, the Nuggets already surrendered their last three second-round picks earlier this summer to trim their tax bill by getting out of Reggie Jackson‘s $5.25 million player option after he exercised it. Now, it feels like Denver might be making a similar mistake with Westbrook.
Grade: A
Trent is an atypical minimum signing for a team that had nothing more to offer. At 25, he’s still in the prime of his career, unlike veterans Eric Gordon (35), Kyle Lowry (38) and Taurean Prince (30), the three other minimum free agents who saw more than 1,500 minutes of action last season. And Trent is vastly more effective than the other player younger than age 30 as of opening night who has signed for the minimum after playing at least 1,000 minutes, James Wiseman.
In a free agency class that has been marked by winners who were in the right place at the right time and losers who misread where things were headed, Trent stands out as the player who lost the most money. He made $18.6 million last season, completing a three-year contract signed with the Toronto Raptors in the summer of 2021, when he became a starter at age 22.
Because of his age and the lower replacement level at shooting guard, I had Trent projected as one of the top 20 free agents available. Yet no market ever developed, leading Trent to take a one-year deal and bet on earning more money next summer.
Something similar happened in 2023 with Malik Beasley, who started for Milwaukee on a one-year deal after making $15.6 million the previous campaign. Beasley didn’t entirely rebuild his value, but did double his minimum this summer on a one-year, $6 million deal with the Detroit Pistons.
Like Beasley, Trent’s primary calling card is his shooting. He’s a career 39% 3-point shooter who hit slightly higher than that in 2023-24. If anything, I’d like to see Trent become more aggressive hunting catch-and-shoot 3s, which he hit at a 42.5% clip, comparable to Beasley’s 43% accuracy. Excluding those high-value attempts, Trent shot an effective field-goal percentage (eFG%) of 46% across 2s and off-the-dribble 3s.
Add in just 1.7 free throw attempts per 36 minutes and Trent scored with below-average efficiency (.548 true shooting percentage) while using plays at a league-average rate, his lowest usage since 2019-20. That was surely a key factor in Trent’s market drying up.
Playing alongside Giannis Antetokounmpo, Damian Lillard (his backcourt-mate entering the league with the Portland Trail Blazers) and Khris Middleton, there will be little need for Trent to create his own offense. Beasley, whose usage shrunk from 21% to a career-low 15% in the same role, is proof of concept.
The Bucks miscast Beasley as their primary perimeter defender after sending out Jrue Holiday in the Lillard trade. Although hardly a stopper, Trent has a better chance of holding up against wing scorers. At a listed 6-foot-5, 209, he’s a little bigger than Beasley (6-4, 187) and utilizes his strength well against bigger opponents.
Getting Trent pushes Milwaukee’s other minimum signings, Prince and Delon Wright, into more appropriate roles. In Prince, the Bucks already had landed the minimum free agent who recorded the second-most minutes last season after Spencer Dinwiddie (2,108). Now they have two of the top three in that category. That, in turn, means less pressure on Doc Rivers to play Milwaukee’s young wings (MarJon Beauchamp, AJ Green and Andre Jackson Jr.) unless they earn the minutes by beating out the veterans.
As with Beasley, the Bucks will be hard-pressed to re-sign Trent next offseason, when they’ll be able to offer him 120% of his minimum at most using non-Bird rights. That’s a problem for another day, given the urgency for Milwaukee to win while Lillard is still playing at a high level. Adding Trent makes that possibility far more realistic than it looked beforehand.
Grade: C
As the No. 31 pick of the 2022 draft, Nembhard is one of a handful of finds who helped the Pacers build enough depth around Tyrese Haliburton to emerge as a playoff team before dealing for Pascal Siakam last season.
Through his first two seasons, Nembhard has started 110 games, most of any player drafted outside the top 12. And, after primarily thriving in an off-ball role next to Haliburton during his first two regular seasons, he showed more on-ball potential during the Eastern Conference finals when Haliburton was sidelined, putting up 56 points and 19 assists over the final two games against the eventual champion Boston Celtics.
Because Indiana signed Nembhard to a four-year contract similar to what has now become standard for second-round picks in the new NBA collective bargaining agreement, he’ll make the minimum ($2.0 million) in 2024-25. The Pacers were set for a decision after this season between exercising Nembhard’s $2.2 million team option for 2025-26 or making him a restricted free agent next summer.
This extension effectively chooses the latter path, replacing the team option with the largest possible starting salary Indiana could offer in an extension ($18.1 million), with maximum 8% raises off of that. Nembhard was eligible to add a fourth year, but instead will hit unrestricted free agency in 2028 at age 28.
I wonder whether the Pacers could have driven a tougher bargain using Nembhard’s team option as leverage, as we saw the Oklahoma City Thunder do this offseason with Isaiah Joe and Aaron Wiggins. Given Indiana could have kept Nembhard for $2 million in 2025-26, from one viewpoint this extension guarantees him $57 million over just two new years, paying him like an above-average starter.
At the same time, Nembhard could be a more important part of the Pacers’ hierarchy than Joe and Wiggins are for Oklahoma City and was far more effective in the playoffs. To play up to this extension, Nembhard will probably need to add lead ballhandling duties with the second unit starting in 2025-26, after backup point guard T.J. McConnell sees his contract expire.
The capability Nembhard showed in that role against Boston contrasted with his results from the regular season, when on-ball screens for him yielded just 0.94 points per chance, putting him in the 21st percentile leaguewide among players who ran at least 500, according to Second Spectrum tracking. In the playoffs, that jumped to 1.05 points per chance, including 1.08 against the Celtics.
With new 30% max contracts for both Haliburton and Siakam kicking in this year, plus a new deal for reserve forward Obi Toppin, we’re to the point where every dollar counts for Indiana. Nembhard’s extension gives them $160 million in committed salary for 2025-26, including team options on three recent first-round picks (Bennedict Mathurin, Ben Sheppard and Jarace Walker) and non-guaranteed minimum salaries for Kendall Brown and James Wiseman.
That puts the Pacers about $28 million away from the projected $188 million luxury tax line with McConnell and starting center Myles Turner both unsigned. Given Indiana last paid the tax in 2005-06, we can probably think of the tax line as a de facto hard cap unless Indiana shows championship potential. So the Pacers will be walking a tightrope in attempting to re-sign Turner.
Given that predicament, I probably would have waited on an extension with up to two years remaining on Nembhard’s contract unless he was willing to sign for something less than the maximum possible starting salary.
Grade: B-
It took a bit longer, but Mobley joins Scottie Barnes, Franz Wagner and Cade Cunningham as the fourth member of the 2021 draft to secure a max extension, with criteria that could push the value of this deal from 25% of the salary cap as a starting point (a projected $224 million) to 30% (a projected $269 million) if Mobley either makes an All-NBA team or wins Defensive Player of the Year next season.
In Mobley’s case, winning Defensive Player of the Year might be more realistic. He finished third in the voting in 2022-23, earning eight first-place votes, but did not earn a single All-NBA vote that season. So far, Mobley’s sophomore campaign has been a high point. Injuries limited him to 50 games last season, and in his absence the Cavaliers found more success playing stretch 4s alongside starting center Jarrett Allen.
When Mobley returned to the lineup in late January, his minutes were limited, which conveniently meant former coach J.B. Bickerstaff was able to minimize two-big lineups. As a result, Mobley averaged 28.5 minutes per game the rest of the campaign, down from 34.4 in 2022-23. Because Allen was sidelined, Mobley was back to a key role in the playoffs, averaging 35.2 MPG (and 16.0 points and 9.3 rebounds) primarily at center.
Mobley’s development as a 3-point shooter is key to his fit alongside Allen in the Cleveland frontcourt. Mobley shot an above-average 37% last season after hitting 3s at just a 23% clip in his first two years in the league, but his low volume (1.4 attempts per 36 minutes) meant defenses could treat him as a non-shooter. He let it fly a bit more often in the playoffs but saw his accuracy drop to 28%.
If the Cavaliers are going to make it work playing two bigs together, Mobley must continue improving as a shooter. However, finances might also make that combination a challenge beyond this coming season. Even if he doesn’t achieve the 30% criteria, Mobley’s extension — in conjunction with the one Donovan Mitchell already signed earlier this month — gives Cleveland more than $180 million in payroll for 2025-26, already enough to put the Cavaliers near the luxury tax line with just nine players under contract before they agree to a new deal with restricted free agent Isaac Okoro.
Although the salary cap is going up, Allen is likely in line for a raise on his next contract, which would kick in after he makes $20 million in 2026-27. Maintaining competitive depth around a core of Allen, Mitchell, Mobley and guard Darius Garland could drive Cleveland deep into the tax.
Given that financial pressure, the Cavaliers more than any other team that has signed a 2021 draft pick to a rookie extension had incentive to play hardball in negotiations with Mobley. Still, teams almost always max out their draft picks with the pedigree of Mobley, the No. 3 pick who finished second in Rookie of the Year voting at age 20. And the number of other max extensions surely made it difficult to pitch Mobley on the idea of taking a penny less.
Grade: B+
Out of the NBA for most of the 2021-22 season and the first half of 2022-23 campaign, Dunn revitalized his career during a year-plus with the Utah Jazz — earning his largest contract since signing with the Atlanta Hawks in 2020 free agency.
Long one of the NBA’s better on-ball defenders, Dunn has finally added enough shooting to be viable offensively. Last year’s 37% 3-point accuracy was a career high in a full season. Add in 7.3 assists per 36 minutes, matching his best full campaign, and Dunn profiles as an above-average backup to James Harden at point guard. The Clippers could also play Dunn and Kevin Porter Jr. together in second-unit backcourts.
Making this deal a sign-and-trade had a couple of benefits for the Clippers at the cost of cash and a second-round swap. First, they were able to offer Dunn a bit more than his minimum (which would have started at $3.0 million, as compared with more than $5 million on this deal) in a contract that includes a team option on the third season. Second, the Clippers get off Russell Westbrook’s $4.0 million salary after he exercised a player option.
Although the Clippers will surely keep searching for a new home for little-used veteran P.J. Tucker, they could bring this roster into training camp and have a little less than $4 million in wiggle room below their hard cap at the first luxury tax apron.
As for the Jazz, once Dunn reached a deal with the Clippers, this was mostly a matter of using their 30-plus million dollars in cap space to take back Westbrook’s salary. ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski reports that Utah is expected to reach a buyout deal with Westbrook, allowing him to sign with the Denver Nuggets as a free agent.
Grade: A
Although it’s not surprising Brunson reportedly agreed to the largest possible extension he could sign with the Knicks, it probably should be given how much money he’s foregoing.
Because Brunson’s current $25 million salary is low for the star player he has become in New York, the maximum raise of 40% puts his starting salary for this extension in 2025-26 at $34.9 million. Based on the projected 10% increase in the salary cap, the maximum salary for players with seven years of experience, like Brunson, will be $46.4 million — $11.5 million more than Brunson will make.
Sure, an extension removes some risk of serious injury this season. Barring that possibility, Brunson was sure to command max offers after finishing fifth in MVP voting during a breakthrough campaign.
As ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski pointed out, the length of this extension — four years, with the final one a player option — means Brunson could eventually recoup some of the eye-popping difference between the total value and what he could have guaranteed on a five-year deal as an unrestricted free agent next summer ($269.1 million).
Still, that’s at least three years in which Brunson is giving up a total of about $37 million in salary as compared to a potential max deal next summer. That difference will be crucial as the Knicks’ roster gets more expensive. New York now has $151 million committed to 10 players for 2025-26, pending Julius Randle‘s decision on his $29.5 million player option. Brunson taking less could allow the Knicks to give Randle a raise if necessary — or trade him for someone making more money — and still stay comfortably below the second luxury tax apron, which is projected at $208 million.
By 2026-27, when newcomer Mikal Bridges will start a new contract, it might prove difficult for New York to avoid the second apron. By that point, however, the Knicks could be content re-signing or extending the players they’ve already accumulated and having the option to trade those players for ones making less money.
It seems appropriate to term Brunson’s extension a family discount given his dad, Rick, is an assistant coach for New York, a role he previously held under Tom Thibodeau in both Chicago and Minnesota, and team president Leon Rose is Brunson’s godfather. Add in the Villanova “family” that teams Brunson with his former college teammates Donte DiVincenzo, Josh Hart and now Bridges, and it’s clear that Brunson’s connection with the Knicks is unusually strong.
Speaking last week about taking less money to help the Los Angeles Lakers avoid second-apron restrictions, LeBron James compared his relationship with the team to his marriage. But James ultimately sacrificed only a few million, while his offer to take a larger discount in order for the Lakers to add an impact player presumably would have been for only one season.
Add in Brunson’s age and the fact that he hasn’t yet made as much money as superstars who have taken less money later in their careers, such as Tim Duncan and Dirk Nowitzki, and there’s little precedent for this kind of discount. Brunson’s willingness to take less money than he could have made in free agency might ultimately prove a key factor in New York’s ability to chase an NBA championship.
Grade: A
Bey’s foray into free agency was marred by a pair of issues. Most importantly, he suffered a left ACL tear in March that will likely sideline him most of the 2024-25 season. Beyond that, Bey’s position — combo forward — has been strangely devalued this summer, with the likes of Derrick Jones Jr., Caleb Martin and Naji Marshall all signing deals for less than the value of the non-taxpayer midlevel exception despite their utility to winning teams.
Given those factors, Bey never had a realistic chance of commanding eight figures per season. His former team, the Atlanta Hawks, declined to tender him a qualifying offer because of its luxury tax issues, allowing him to become an unrestricted free agent.
Enter the Wizards, who have the ability to think beyond the upcoming campaign in the midst of a rebuild. Even if Bey provides no value at all to Washington in 2024-25, a two-year, $20 million deal would be reasonable next summer for a player with 223 career starts — more than any of Jones (163), Martin (88) or Marshall (36) — for his prime age-27 and age-28 seasons.
Washington is certainly taking a risk here in hopes that Bey will return to full health, as well as the possibility of him shooting more like his career 3-point accuracy (35%) rather than last season’s career-low 32% mark. Bey’s shooting backslide after hitting 38% of his 3s as a rookie is difficult to understand considering he remains an above-average foul shooter (84% in 2023-24, matching his career mark). Still, Bey has the upside of providing starter-caliber minutes at either forward spot at 6-foot-7, filling an important need for contending teams.
By 2025-26, it’s possible the Wizards will transition to a new phase of their rebuilding process with more focus on results after adding a lottery pick next June. Alternatively, if Washington is still playing the long game next summer, Bey could hold trade value on this contract as the cap rises. Either way, this is one of my favorite signings of the offseason.
Grade: B-
In a 2021 draft class full of players requiring tricky extension decisions, Cunningham may have presented the thorniest because of a question that’s difficult to answer right now: How much of his inefficient play reflects his ability as compared to the shortcomings of the Pistons’ roster around him?
Cunningham joins Scottie Barnes and Franz Wagner as the third 2021 first-rounder to sign similar extensions guaranteeing them a starting salary of 25% of the 2024-25 max (a projected $224 million) with the possibility of bumping up to a 30% starting salary (a projected $269 million) by making All-NBA or winning Defensive Player of the Year this season.
As compared to Barnes and Wagner, two of the three 2021 draft picks who have racked up double-digit wins above replacement player by my WARP metric, Cunningham has yet to demonstrate the same kind of value. He made important progress last season, averaging 22.7 points and 7.5 assists per game while shooting a credible 35.5% from 3. Yet Cunningham’s modest 49% accuracy inside the arc meant his true shooting percentage was last among the 15 players who used at least 30% of their team’s plays in 1,000 minutes or more, per Stathead.com.
To Cunningham’s supporters, this is attributable to the offensive structure around him. Weighted by minutes played with him, Cunningham’s teammates shot just 35% from 3-point range last season, ranking in the 15th percentile leaguewide. The additions of Malik Beasley, Tim Hardaway Jr. and Tobias Harris should give Cunningham somewhat more room to operate next season.
At the same time, Cunningham skeptics wondered before Detroit took him No. 1 whether he was capable of being the kind of lead creator advertised. Cunningham’s first three seasons haven’t answered that concern. If Cunningham tops out as more of a strong secondary option, there’s less upside to handing him the max.
For comparison purposes, I looked back at players drafted in the top three since 2011 who had produced between three and eight WARP over their first three NBA seasons. Cunningham’s 5.5 WARP puts him squarely in the middle of this group, with the caveat that injury limited him to 12 games in 2022-23.
That yields six comps, five of whom got max deals after their rookie contract was up. The one exception, Jabari Parker, suffered a second ACL tear during the final season of his rookie contract and was forced to settle for a one-year, $20 million deal as a free agent. Just two players from that group, Bradley Beal and Joel Embiid — who showed superstar potential as a rookie after missing his first two seasons due to injury — got extensions ahead of restricted free agency.
The most interesting point of comparison for Cunningham is 2018 No. 1 overall pick Deandre Ayton. Because the Phoenix Suns did not offer him a max extension, Ayton went to restricted free agency and signed a max offer sheet with the Indiana Pacers that Phoenix matched. Ayton’s relationship with the Suns had deteriorated by that point, and he was traded for far less value in return a year later.
Ayton’s poor response to having to wait for another team to offer him the max is precisely what teams fear when they let their young stars go to restricted free agency rather than signing them to extensions. A max offer sheet also typically means having the player under contract for just three years before a player option rather than the full five the teams that have signed 2021 draft picks to extensions have gotten.
Given Cunningham’s draft pedigree and the limited number of proven stars headed to free agency in 2025, a max offer was almost surely coming for him next summer. That being the case, better for the Pistons to offer it now than wait for another team to do it for them.
In this situation, however, I might have tried to use offseason upheaval as an excuse to table negotiations until training camp. Detroit has a new lead decision-maker (Trajan Langdon) and head coach (J.B. Bickerstaff), neither of whom has evaluated Cunningham up close. It would have been nice to see how Cunningham performed in a different system with better talent around him during training camp before taking an extension decision up through the deadline on the day before the start of the regular season.
Grade: B-
Strictly in basketball terms, the Hornets getting Bridges under contract through age 29 for $25 million a season looks like solid value to cap what’s been a strong use of cap space by the team’s new front office.
As ESPN’s Bobby Marks explained, Charlotte’s series of moves Saturday — which also included a trade taking back Devonte’ Graham from the San Antonio Spurs — required a precise order to manage the cap.
After waiving Davis Bertans — whose salary was just $5.25 million guaranteed — along with a pair of players that had non-guaranteed salaries (Bryce McGowens and Aleksej Pokusevski), the Hornets could acquire Graham at his full 2024-25 salary of $12.65 million, then immediately waive him and only be on the hook for $2.85 million. Getting a 2025 New Orleans Pelicans second-round pick with Graham is excellent return for such a modest guarantee and reflects the Spurs’ urgency to create additional cap room.
Up next, Charlotte will acquire Josh Green from the Dallas Mavericks and Reggie Jackson into cap space, finalizing previously reported deals and finishing just close enough to the salary cap to remain legal. The net result is three additional second-round picks plus Green, who cost a second-round pick in return. That sequence also enabled the Hornets to maintain Bridges’ cap hold, giving them full Bird rights to go over the cap and re-sign him.
Bridges’ market was presumably limited this offseason by a pair of factors. More importantly, some teams may not have been interested in acquiring Bridges, who missed the entire 2022-23 season and served an additional 10-game suspension to start the 2023-24 regular season after pleading no contest to felony domestic violence charges in 2022.
Beyond that, only a handful of teams had enough cap space to offer Bridges a deal like this, which pays nearly double the non-taxpayer midlevel exception. Once the Philadelphia 76ers landed Paul George and the Detroit Pistons chose to sign a different combo forward, Tobias Harris, it’s unclear where Bridges would have fit for more than the midlevel.
Down the road, Charlotte will have the ability to trade Bridges to a wider variety of teams. Because Bridges played last season on the Hornets’ one-year qualifying offer as a restricted free agent, he had to approve any trade and would have lost his Bird rights had he changed teams. As a result, as ESPN’s Brian Windhorst reported before the most recent trade deadline, Bridges decided to veto any trades and remain in Charlotte.
In that story, Windhorst also reported that several contenders showed interest in acquiring Bridges. Those conversations may resume closer to next year’s deadline. In the meantime, Bridges can help prop up a Hornets offense that relied too heavily on No. 2 overall pick Brandon Miller as a rookie after LaMelo Ball was lost to season-ending ankle surgery.
Despite averaging a career-high 21.0 PPG in 2023-24, Bridges was less efficient than during a breakthrough 2021-22 campaign that saw him finish seventh in Most Improved Player voting. Bridges made just 53% of his 2-point attempts, down from 59% the previous two full seasons, and saw his assist average dip as well on an injury-plagued Charlotte team that finished 21-61. Bridges posted a .583 true shooting percentage in 12 games with Ball, as compared to .551 without him, and would benefit from having a healthy point guard back in the lineup.
Grade: A
Martin fills a key need for the 76ers, whose depth was troublingly thin at power forward after incumbents Tobias Harris and Nicolas Batum agreed to sign elsewhere in free agency once Philadelphia used the bulk of its cap space to add Paul George.
Enter Martin, who actually projects as the second-shortest member of the Sixers’ likely starting five at 6-foot-5 but has extensive playoff experience guarding bigger opponents during his three seasons with the Miami Heat. Positions were fluid in coach Erik Spoelstra’s lineups, as they probably will be for Nick Nurse, but I have Martin as the assigned power forward for about 48% of his minutes in 2022-23 before he spent more time on the perimeter last season.
Between Martin, George and Kelly Oubre Jr., Philadelphia has three interchangeable perimeter defenders to assign as needed. Martin actually spent most of his time during Miami’s 2023 run to the NBA Finals defending on the perimeter — his most frequent matchups in their respective series were Jalen Brunson, Jrue Holiday and Jamal Murray, per Second Spectrum tracking — but also matched up most often with Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown against the Boston Celtics in the Eastern Conference finals.
Between Martin and Oubre, who guarded Brunson throughout the 76ers’ first-round loss to the New York Knicks last season, Nurse should be able to take the toughest defensive assignments off George’s plate and free him to be a menace in the passing lanes.
At the other end, Martin isn’t as good a shooter as fans who only tune in for the playoffs might think. Martin hit 42% of his 4.5 attempts from long distance per game during the 2023 playoffs (and 44% in a smaller sample last season), but has been around 35% the past two regular seasons and is at 36% for his career. Ideally, you’d want a little more shooting next to Joel Embiid, but Martin’s playoff track record may help keep defenses honest.
From a value standpoint, this deal is hard to beat. Philadelphia had about $8 million in cap space remaining after signing George and Andre Drummond to reported deals but before re-signing Maxey with Bird rights and using the room midlevel exception to re-sign Oubre. Martin fits neatly into that space. He’ll make only slightly more over four years than Derrick Jones Jr. with the LA Clippers over the next three, and Martin is a more proven two-way contributor.
To complete this deal, the Sixers will waive backup center Paul Reed, according to ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski. Given the favorable structure of Reed’s contract, I’m a little surprised Philly couldn’t find a team willing to offer a second-round pick to keep him off waivers. Reed’s $7.7 million salary is fully non-guaranteed, while his $8.1 million salary for 2025-26 only guarantees if his team makes the conference finals in 2025.
Crucially, waiving Reed and signing Martin allows the 76ers to maintain a minimum cap hold for reserve forward KJ Martin (no relation). Although he played sparingly for Philadelphia last season, he could become important as matching salary for the Sixers at the deadline. They can exceed the cap to pay him any amount, limited only by desire to limit their luxury tax bill and flexibility with regard to tax aprons.
With so much salary tied up in the trio of Embiid ($51 million), George ($49 million) and Maxey ($35 million), Philly has few tradeable players who aren’t already starters and therefore difficult spots to upgrade. Re-signing KJ Martin to a deal north of $10 million would give the 76ers salary to pair with the first-round picks they can use in trade.
Thunder re-sign Joe and Wiggins
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Agreed to re-sign guard Isaiah Joe to a reported four-year, $48 million deal
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Agreed to re-sign guard Aaron Wiggins to a reported five-year, $47 million deal
Grade: A
Let’s discuss these two contracts together because the Thunder struck similar deals with both Joe and Wiggins after declining their minimum team options for this season. The logic behind that was similar to the Orlando Magic using cap space to renegotiate Jonathan Isaac‘s contract while simultaneously signing him to a long-term extension.
Like the Magic, Oklahoma City has big raises coming for young stars Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams and is trying to shift as much money as possible to this season, when Holmgren and Williams are still on their bargain rookie deals. The difference is the Thunder also needed to maximize their cap space this summer in order to sign Isaiah Hartenstein to a reported three-year, $87 million contract.
That’s where tiny cap holds for Joe ($2.1 million) and Wiggins ($2.4 million) came in. By declining their team options, Oklahoma City could count them against the cap before using full Bird rights to re-sign them to much larger contracts and staying safely out of the luxury tax. Per league sources, both Joe and Wiggins saw their contracts start at their highest value before descending until the final season, with a new team option at the end.
The net effect is Joe and Wiggins making a combined $23.5 million this season, but just over $20 million by 2026-27 when Holmgren and Williams begin their extensions.
From the players’ perspective, these contracts effectively function like extensions that pay them the bulk of the money up front. As compared to the possibility of the Thunder exercising their minimum team options, Joe gets an extra $46 million over three years — almost identical to next summer’s projected non-taxpayer midlevel exception, while Wiggins adds $45 million over four new seasons with $2 million of that as unlikely incentives.
Joe had a little more bargaining power than Wiggins because he would have been an unrestricted free agent this summer had Oklahoma City declined his team option, while Wiggins would have remained restricted after signing a long-term deal when his two-way contract was converted as a rookie.
Additionally, Joe has simply been the more valuable player. In two seasons with the Thunder after being waived by the Philadelphia 76ers, Joe has shot 41% from 3-point range on 9.5 attempts per 36 minutes, providing key floor spacing off the bench. Wiggins is the better defender of the two, but not as threatening from the perimeter despite making 49% of his 3s in the 2023-24 regular season. The Dallas Mavericks largely treated him as a non-shooter in the playoffs, when Wiggins dipped to 30% from downtown.
As much focus as there rightfully is on Oklahoma City’s stockpile of first-round picks, working the margins for Joe and Wiggins (taken No. 55 overall in 2021) has arguably been more important to the Thunder’s impressive depth. Skillful cap management should make it easier for Oklahoma City to retain both players as the team’s young stars come into their prime.
Grade: A-
After playing last season for the veteran’s minimum with the Milwaukee Bucks, Beasley will more than double that amount on a one-year deal this season at the expense of going from an NBA contender to a team most likely headed for the lottery.
Beasley’s market was limited because he was part of a logjam at shooting guard of plus shooters (Beasley’s 41% accuracy from 3-point range in 2023-24 was a career high and his third consecutive season with 200-plus triples) who struggle at the defensive end of the court.
Adding Beasley’s shooting should help space the floor for the Pistons’ younger guards. I’d expect him to slot into the rotation ahead of Tim Hardaway Jr., whom Detroit will acquire via trade from the Dallas Mavericks using cap space. If all goes well, Beasley could have trade value to a contender by the deadline given his modest salary.
How the Pistons proceed next depends on whether they can find another trade with a team looking to shed salary. If not, Detroit could re-sign restricted free agent Simone Fontecchio and come into the season just above the NBA’s salary floor (90% of the cap). With few other teams likely to take space into the season, that would put the Pistons in prime position to strike a deal adding money to their payroll before the deadline.
Grade: B-
The first-round picks from the 2021 draft now entering the fourth and final season of their rookie contract have been eligible to negotiate extensions with their current teams since the day after the Boston Celtics won the NBA championship on June 17, but only the Toronto Raptors and Scottie Barnes had struck a deal before Wagner and the Orlando Magic did so Friday.
Like Barnes, Wagner will be guaranteed the 25% max starting in 2025-26, currently projected at $224 million. (Given new NBA national TV deals will begin that season, we have a pretty good idea the cap will increase the maximum possible 10%, used in these calculations.) And, like Barnes, Wagner can push that to 30% of the salary cap and a projected $269 million if he makes All-NBA next season.
Unlike with Barnes, who’s now the face of the Toronto franchise and was an All-Star last season, maxing Wagner wasn’t as easy a decision. Orlando had the ability to play hardball knowing Wagner could extend all the way up through the day before opening night and would be a restricted free agent if no deal was reached.
Wagner is the Magic’s No. 2 option behind All-Star frontcourt-mate Paolo Banchero and is coming off a season in which he shot just 28% from 3-point range, a step backward after Wagner made 36% of his 3s in his first two NBA campaigns. He also had an uneven playoff debut against the Cleveland Cavaliers, averaging 25.3 PPG in Orlando’s three wins but shooting 28% in the four road losses during the Magic’s first-round series, including 1-of-15 in Game 7.
On the other hand, Wagner has rated as elite in terms of his on-court impact. Last season, Orlando outscored opponents by a whopping 12.6 points per 100 possessions when Wagner played with Banchero on the bench, according to Cleaning the Glass. When Banchero played without Wagner, the Magic were minus-3.9 points per 100 possessions.
Add in Wagner’s age (22) and the fact that the Magic will only add better shooting and playmaking around him, and there’s reason to believe he’ll develop into the kind of secondary scorer who makes star-level impact, a la prime Andre Iguodala. If Orlando has such lofty expectations for Wagner, better to get him signed up for as long as possible now without jeopardizing his relationship with the franchise.
Ultimately, the All-NBA escalator probably won’t come into play for Wagner, who did not receive any votes this season. And it’s reasonable to think that another team would have stepped up with a max four-year offer sheet for Wagner had he hit free agency next summer, which would surely include a player option, allowing him to become an unrestricted free agent at age 25.
Based on that possibility, I think getting the Wagner extension done now was the right decision for the Magic.
Grade: B+
Like the addition of Kyle Anderson reported earlier this week, adding Hield will require a sign-and-trade for the Warriors in conjunction with their own sign-and-trade sending Klay Thompson to the Dallas Mavericks. The Philadelphia 76ers will end up with Dallas’ 2031 second-round pick Golden State originally got for Thompson, per ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski.
Hield offers a remarkably good facsimile of Thompson’s shooting. Over the past two seasons, Hield has shot a slightly better percentage beyond the arc (41% to Thompson’s 40%) on slightly lower volume (9.6 attempts per 36 minutes, compared to 11.2 for Thompson). Thompson is a more complete scorer, and still a better defender even after ACL and Achilles injuries sapped the quickness that once made him a top-tier perimeter stopper.
I’m curious to see whether the Warriors can increase Hield’s 3-point volume by running some of the same off-ball movement plays for him that Thompson used. Thompson’s 37.7 off-ball screens per 100 possessions led the NBA last season, according to Second Spectrum tracking, while Hield got about half that amount: 18.2 per 100 possessions. Hield’s volume was much higher with the Sacramento Kings, including 37.5 in 2017-18, the last season he was primarily used as a reserve.
Although it’s tough to say at this point exactly how Golden State’s rotation will shake out, Hield seems likely to come off the bench to supply shooting to a group that’s light on it otherwise with non-shooters Anderson and Gary Payton II as key parts of Steve Kerr’s second unit.
In a vacuum, I’d rather have Thompson than Hield. However, the equation changes factoring in salary. The Warriors were able to get both Hield and Anderson for similar money to what the Mavericks paid Thompson. These deals are also more favorable in future years, with Hield guaranteed just $3 million in salary after 2025-26 according to Wojnarowski. If Hield’s production starts to slip in his mid-30s, Golden State can easily move on.
The downside of the Warriors adding so much depth this week with Anderson, Hield and De’Anthony Melton is that it seems to push fourth-year wing Moses Moody back down Golden State’s depth chart. It’s possible Moody could still win a role, and Melton and Payton are both coming off seasons where they missed extended time due to injury. Still, I would have liked to see the Warriors plan for Moody to have a larger role after he averaged 17.5 minutes per game last season.
On Wednesday’s episode of the Lowe Post, I described Moody as the player I’d be most eager to target via trade were I running a team because of the possibility Golden State is willing to sell low on the former lottery pick at age 22. Moody was productive last season, averaging 16.6 points and 6.1 rebounds per 36 minutes on 36% 3-point shooting, and has the chance to develop further in his mid-20s.
Grade: A
With all the top free agents save DeMar DeRozan off the board, the Lakers and James evidently decided it was no longer worth waiting to consider the possibility of having him take a pay cut so they could utilize their non-taxpayer midlevel exception.
Although a James pay cut would have helped out the 2024-25 Lakers, it came with an implicit price. Presumably, James was only taking less money for this season, meaning the 2025-26 Lakers would have become far more expensive with his salary going up $20-plus million and the Lakers retaining the veteran piece they would add with James’ blessing.
In that context, I’m curious just how many players besides Klay Thompson the Lakers were really interested in signing using their non-taxpayer midlevel. We know they passed on Jonas Valanciunas, who ended up signing a deal for less than the full annual value of the midlevel with the Washington Wizards. From the Lakers’ perspective, I would rather not have had Valanciunas if it meant playing Anthony Davis more at power forward and cramping their spacing.
Whatever the path, we’ve ended up at the expected destination: James taking something close to his maximum salary and the Lakers dancing around the second luxury-tax apron. ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski reported that James is willing to take about $1 million less than the largest possible salary ($50 million) in order to ensure the Lakers keep their salary below the second apron at the time he re-signs.
The downside of this path for the Lakers is any significant changes to their roster besides draft picks Dalton Knecht and Bronny James will have to be made via trade. Because so many Lakers picked up the player options the team loves to hand out (D’Angelo Russell, plus minimum signings Jaxson Hayes, Cam Reddish and Christian Wood), the other 13 spots on the full NBA roster are currently filled by returning players.
The Lakers could still create a little more wiggle room to either use their taxpayer midlevel exception or re-sign forward Taurean Prince, one of two remaining free agents from last year’s roster (Spencer Dinwiddie is the other) by sending out cash or second-round picks with two of their minimum salaries.
In order to avoid hard-capping themselves at the lower luxury-tax apron, any trade the Lakers make between here and the deadline will have to bring back less salary than it sends out. The Lakers will be free to aggregate salary together under those parameters, but it will make a deal slightly more complex to complete.
A possible sign-and-trade deal for DeRozan paying him more than the midlevel would be even more challenging than that because receiving a player in a sign-and-trade triggers a hard cap at the lower apron whether it adds salary or not. In order to pay DeRozan a starting salary of $20 million, the Lakers would have to shed more than $30 million in salary.
Barring a significant trade, the Lakers’ roster still has the same weakness that doomed last year’s team: too few players average or better at both ends of the court. As strong a fit as Knecht is offensively, he’s unlikely to help much on defense as a rookie. That leaves the Lakers counting on a healthy Gabe Vincent and internal development from Max Christie, who re-signed as a restricted free agent, to fill that void.
Ultimately, the biggest challenge for the 2024-25 Lakers is probably playing well enough before the deadline to convince the front office to put tradeable first-round picks in 2029 and 2031 in play before the postseason.
Utilizing one or both of those picks and a number of midlevel salaries, the Lakers could be competitive for a second-tier star or a deal to add depth similar to the one they struck at the 2023 trade deadline that brought back Russell and two other rotation-caliber players (Malik Beasley and Jarred Vanderbilt).
Grade: B-
Along with the second-round picks they received from the Dallas Mavericks, consider Anderson the Warriors’ return from the sign-and-trade sending Klay Thompson to Dallas. Without the $16 million trade exception that deal will create, Golden State would not have been able to offer Anderson more than a two-year deal for $9.6 million, having already used the $12.8 million non-taxpayer midlevel exception to add his former Memphis Grizzlies teammate De’Anthony Melton.
Anderson is an interesting fit with the Warriors. I see some overlap between how Golden State might use him and the role Shaun Livingston once played for the Warriors as a non-shooter (Anderson hit just 23% of his 3s last year, is at 34% for his career and requires a long time to actually get his shot off) whose basketball IQ fits well in the Warriors’ system.
With the additions of Anderson and Melton, coach Steve Kerr will have numerous options for Golden State’s second units, which will also include holdover Gary Payton II and some combination of the team’s young talent (Trayce Jackson-Davis, Jonathan Kuminga, Moses Moody and Brandin Podziemski) that doesn’t end up starting with Stephen Curry, Draymond Green and Andrew Wiggins.
That’s 10 rotation-caliber players, not counting veteran center Kevon Looney, and the one concern here is that Kerr might lean too heavily on the veterans at the expense of Moody in particular. But it’s unlikely that all 10 of those players will be healthy at the same time, creating a need for extra cover.
Adding Anderson to the mix puts the Warriors about $3 million below the luxury tax line with 13 players under contract, meaning they could be finished with their roster for now if they sign second-round pick Quinten Post to a full NBA deal. Although Golden State is hard capped at the lower luxury tax apron after signing Melton, the Warriors do have the ability to add up to about $8.5 million in salary if they find a deal by the trade deadline worth paying the repeater tax.
Grade: B
Because Isaac was already due $17.4 million this season — not counting $2.6 million in unlikely incentives — it’s probably best to think of this as $67 million in new money over the next four years. The Magic are putting their remaining cap space to use paying some of that extension up front by bumping up Isaac’s salary to $25.4 million this season, per a league source, then descending it (up to a maximum of 40%, or about $15 million) starting in 2024-25.
The logic behind that structure is clear: Orlando will pay Isaac less than his presumed market value over the course of the four years covered by the extension, when the Magic’s payroll will skyrocket with new contracts for Jalen Suggs and Franz Wagner in 2025-26 and Paolo Banchero the season after that. Shifting some of Isaac’s salary to this year will make it easier to keep him alongside the young core while also getting him the money up front.
How well this deal works out will depend on Isaac’s ability to stay healthy. He missed both the 2020-21 and 2021-22 campaigns following an ACL tear in August 2020 and played just 11 games after returning in 2022-23. Last season, Isaac was able to stay on the court for 58 games — his most since 2018-19 — and made a massive impact at the defensive end of the court.
Opponents made 47% of their shot attempts in the paint with Isaac as the primary defender, according to Second Spectrum tracking, the league’s third-lowest mark. Listed at 6-foot-10, Isaac plays bigger than that. He started briefly at center for Orlando late in the regular season and early in the team’s first-round loss to the Cleveland Cavaliers. Yet Isaac is quick enough defensively after his injuries to serve as the Magic’s primary defender against high-scoring forwards such as Kevin Durant, LeBron James and Jayson Tatum.
That unique combination of skills meant Orlando’s defense was at its best with Isaac on the court. His defensive rating in luck-adjusted RAPM from Krishna Narsu, which accounts for teammates and opponents as well as opponent shooting, was fourth best in the NBA last season.
In order to take advantage of his defensive ability, Isaac will have to continue adding confidence as a shooter. He made 37.5% of his 3-point attempts last season but on just 4.4 attempts per 36 minutes. The Magic struggled to score with Isaac starting at center in the first two games against Cleveland, leading coach Jamahl Mosley to move him back to a more comfortable reserve role.
Just hitting his peak at age 27 in October, Isaac will be one of the league’s most intriguing players next season as he looks to build up his minutes from last season’s 15.8 per game. However well he plays, Orlando now knows he’ll be under contract for the foreseeable future.
Grade: B
At first blush, the Magic’s decision to decline Wagner’s $8 million team option only to turn around and re-sign him to a larger contract doesn’t make a lot of sense. The explanation, per a league source, is a team option on this deal that allows Orlando to roll over its cap space, which will largely be vaporized next season when Wagner’s younger brother, Franz Wagner, and Jalen Suggs are on new contracts.
Wagner actually beat his brother to the Magic, signing there in April 2021 before Orlando drafted Franz in the lottery that summer. The Magic have become a home for Wagner, who played for four teams in his first three NBA seasons, and he has responded with the best play of his career. Wagner averaged a career-high 10.9 points on 60% shooting last season, way up from his previous career high shooting percentage (50%) by virtue of reducing his 3-point attempts.
A key part of Orlando second units that often outperformed the team’s starters, Wagner had the second-best net rating on the Magic last season after fellow backup big Jonathan Isaac. Orlando outscored opponents by 4.3 points per 100 possessions with Wagner on the court, according to NBA Advanced Stats, and was minus-1.7 with him on the bench.
Because Wagner’s new salary is less than his cap hold as an unrestricted free agent, the Magic will likely complete this contract before using cap space. That leaves Orlando with a maximum of about $17 million in spending power before re-signing third center Goga Bitadze using early Bird rights and Gary Harris using the room exception. With 14 players under contract, the Magic might instead sign Harris with cap space and then save the room midlevel to potentially be used for a midseason trade.
Grade: B-
Since Wiseman has already washed out with both the Golden State Warriors — who took him No. 2 overall in 2020 — and the Detroit Pistons, this doesn’t technically count as a “second draft” pickup for the Pacers. The concept is still largely the same as when Indiana acquired Obi Toppin a year ago: take a talented prospect and put him in a system that better fits his skills.
Expect Indiana to simplify Wiseman’s role to running the court hard and rolling hard to the rim in pick-and-rolls with point guards Tyrese Haliburton and T.J. McConnell. When Wiseman ended up shooting after setting an on-ball screen last season, he scored at a league-average rate according to Second Spectrum tracking. Yet this happened on just 6% of Wiseman’s ball screens, as compared to 10% of the time for the Pacers’ screen setters — who averaged an NBA-best 1.3 points per play on those opportunities.
How well Wiseman defends will determine whether he can steal minutes from Isaiah Jackson, who split time behind Myles Turner with now-departed Jalen Smith. Wiseman’s teams have allowed at least five more points per 100 possessions with him on the court every season of his career, per Cleaning the Glass analysis.
Indiana will reduce Wiseman’s reads to a degree by asking him to play near the rim while teammates stay home on shooters, since rim protection has been his strongest defensive skill. Opponents shot 60% inside five feet against Wiseman last season, per Second Spectrum data on NBA Advanced stats, not substantially different than their 59% mark against Turner.
As compared to what the Warriors and Pistons invested in Wiseman, the Pacers are taking an appropriately low level of risk by signing him as a third center. Still, I think the odds are against him becoming a productive NBA player even in a system that plays more to his strengths.
Cavaliers, Mitchell agree to 3-year max extension
The deal: Agreed to a reported three-year, $150.3 million extension with guard Donovan Mitchell
Grade: A
When the Cavaliers sent three first-round picks, two swaps and three players (including Lauri Markkanen) to the Utah Jazz for Mitchell less than two years ago, my biggest concern was whether he would stay in Cleveland beyond his current contract. Mitchell held a player option for 2025-26, allowing him to become an unrestricted free agent a year from now and potentially bolt for a bigger market.
As recently as December, when the Cavaliers were 13-12 and facing injuries to starters Darius Garland and Evan Mobley, the clock seemed to be ticking on Mitchell’s time in Cleveland. Instead, the Cavaliers righted the ship — with Mitchell’s strong play as a lead ball handler in Garland’s absence a key factor — and won a playoff series for the first time since LeBron James’ departure in the summer of 2018.
Although Cleveland still has much work to become a legitimate contender in a revamped Eastern Conference, Mitchell’s options in free agency no longer looked so promising by the end of the season. Jalen Brunson’s development into a top-five finisher in the MVP race meant Mitchell wouldn’t join his hometown team as the primary perimeter creator, while the Brooklyn Nets looked far from contending as they missed the play-in.
Surely inspired in part by intel on the likelihood of Mitchell signing an extension, those teams took each other off the board with their trade last week sending Brooklyn the picks that the Knicks would have offered for Mitchell in exchange for the secondary star he would have joined with the Nets, Mikal Bridges.
Other options in free agency might have emerged for Mitchell, such as the Houston Rockets, but that’s also not how stars typically change teams at this point. Paul George leaving the LA Clippers for the Philadelphia 76ers earlier this week was the exception rather than the rule. Instead, most players prefer to grab the security of a max extension and consider asking for a trade later.
Based on that track record, Cleveland can’t expect to have Mitchell through this entire extension, which takes him through the 2027-28 season. If the Cavaliers do end up trading Mitchell, however, they’ll have the leverage of having multiple years left on his extension as opposed to the scenario where he could have been traded this season heading into free agency.
Signing Mitchell to the longest possible extension (four years) surely would have been ideal for Cleveland. That made less sense for Mitchell because by 2028-29, the year he’s currently scheduled for a new contract via extension or free agency, he’ll be eligible to sign for up to 35% of the rising salary cap based on his experience as compared to his current 30% max.
Whether Mitchell eventually requests a trade is a concern for later. Right now, the Cavaliers have to figure out how to upgrade the team around him. After a lopsided 4-1 loss to the eventual champion Boston Celtics in the conference semifinals — the last two games of that series were played without the injured Mitchell — they replaced J.B. Bickerstaff as head coach with Kenny Atkinson.
No matter the coach, fit issues in the backcourt and frontcourt are pressing. Cleveland’s midseason surge came without Garland and Mobley, freeing Mitchell to play point guard with Jarrett Allen at center and three shooters around them. Those lineups outscored opponents by 9.9 points per 100 possessions and ranked in the 77th percentile offensively, per Cleaning the Glass analysis, as compared to a plus-2.7 net rating and an offense ranked in the 40th percentile with all four core players on the court.
The Cavaliers’ decisions on how to move forward are complicated by the fact that the core four were outstanding together in 2022-23 (plus-10.2 net rating), when Cleveland actually had the second-best point differential in the East behind the Celtics.
In particular, Mitchell’s extension raises questions about Garland’s future with the Cavaliers. Garland averaged 20.0 PPG and 6.9 APG in 21 starts without Mitchell, similar production to when he was named an All-Star in 2021-22 prior to Mitchell’s arrival. Playing with Mitchell, his averages dropped to 16.9 PPG and 6.3 APG with weaker efficiency as a scorer.
If another team values Garland as an All-Star point guard, it’s possible Cleveland could get similar production by trading him for an off-ball player while also recouping some of the draft picks sent to Utah for Mitchell.
However the Cavaliers decide to proceed, it’s clear their options are better with Mitchell signed up for the long term rather than entering this season with him headed into a walk year.
Deal:
Grade: A
Batum enjoyed something of a renaissance at age 35 after the Clippers included him as matching salary in their trade for James Harden in November. During 57 games with the Philadelphia 76ers, primarily as a starter, Batum averaged 25.9 minutes per game — the most he has played since 2020-21 during his first season in L.A.
Although Batum no longer makes a big dent on the box score at this point of his 16-season career, averaging just 5.5 points with the Sixers, his 40% 3-point shooting, connective passing and size on defense made him an important cog in Philadelphia’s starting five. It’s a little surprising from that standpoint the 76ers didn’t push harder to re-sign Batum using their remaining cap space after landing Paul George from the Clippers.
It’s possible Batum simply prefers to live in Los Angeles. Having used the bulk of their non-taxpayer midlevel exception on a deal with Derrick Jones Jr., the Clippers signed Batum using their $4.7 million biannual exception. He likely slots in as the backup to Kawhi Leonard, with the ability to earn a larger role depending on how coach Tyronn Lue’s wing rotation shakes out.
Adding Batum pushes the Clippers ever so slightly over the luxury tax line with 14 players under contract. Trading Russell Westbrook and replacing him with a player at the veterans minimum would get the Clippers out of the tax to start the season.
Deal:
Grade: B-
Instead of replacing Harris with Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, the Magic figured, “Why not both?”
Harris likely slides to a reserve role that’s more appropriate at this stage of his career after replacing free agent Markelle Fultz as Orlando’s starter alongside Jalen Suggs in the second half of last season and into the playoffs.
I would have been interested in seeing the Magic pursue a younger option, such as Gary Trent Jr., in that spot with their remaining cap space, but Orlando knows how Harris fits and surely likes his presence as a veteran mentor for the Magic’s young talent.
Depending on Orlando’s other plans, the Magic could complete this deal using their $8 million room exception or take it out of the $28 million in cap space they’ll have left after officially signing Caldwell-Pope.
Grade: A
The last time Tatum signed a contract extension, missing out on All-NBA honors by a single spot in 2020-21 cost him more than $25 million because his salary started at 25% of the cap rather than the 30% Tatum would have received if he qualified. He’s making up for that lost income this time around.
Since Tatum made the All-NBA first team in both 2021-22 and 2022-23, he was already eligible to sign a designated veteran supermax extension before he made it a third consecutive season in 2023-24. Tatum simply had to wait until this summer to become eligible to sign the extension, which will start in 2025-26 and replace the $37.1 million player option Tatum previously held.
Instead, Tatum’s new contract will start at a projected $54.1 million, making it the largest in NBA history to date. With the cap set to increase the maximum 10% from season to season with new national TV deals kicking in during the 2025-26 campaign, that record will surely be short-lived. In fact, the Dallas Mavericks’ Luka Doncic is already eligible to surpass Tatum next summer by virtue of his All-NBA appearances.
As a result, getting caught up in whether Tatum is worth the largest contract ever — as with teammate Jaylen Brown a year ago — misses the point. Tatum’s consistent production entering his prime (he’ll be 27 at the start of this extension) merits paying whatever it takes for the Celtics to retain him.
That’s not to say the money is irrelevant to Boston. Having already struck an extension with starting guard Derrick White earlier Monday, the Celtics now have a projected $205 million committed to six players for the 2025-26 season before they consider an extension for key reserve Sam Hauser or re-signing veteran Al Horford. That’s already enough to push Boston over the second apron just as the team begins paying a repeater tax that will grow even more punitive next season.
Eventually, the Celtics will need to sacrifice depth around the edges to keep paying Brown and Tatum both on contracts starting at 35% of the cap. That’s a challenge to figure out another day. Today is about celebrating Tatum’s well-deserved extension.
Deal:
Grade: B
After washing out with the Indiana Pacers, who drafted him No. 18 overall in 2019, Bitadze has made enormous strides since joining the Magic in 2022 for the veterans minimum. In 33 starts early last season with Wendell Carter Jr. out of the lineup, Bitadze averaged 7.5 points, 7.3 rebounds and 1.7 blocks in just 23.9 minutes per game while splitting time with Mo Wagner.
Because Orlando had both Carter and Wagner playing well, Bitadze fell out of the playoffs after the All-Star break and saw just 10 minutes of action in the Magic’s first-round loss to the Cleveland Cavaliers. Based on that, his return comes as a bit of a surprise. Assuming Orlando re-signs Wagner after declining his $8 million team option, the team will have the same center logjam entering next season.
From the Magic’s perspective, center depth isn’t a bad thing to have. Carter has never played more than 62 games in his career, meaning Orlando needs cover behind him. Bitadze also offers insurance if the Magic decide to move on from Carter via trade at some point. In exchange, Bitadze gets a handsome raise on a new contract that pays about what other teams could have offered using the room midlevel exception.
Because the Magic have early Bird rights on Bitadze, they can keep his minimum cap hold on the books before going over the cap to re-sign him. That leaves Orlando still sitting on up to $28 million in cap space after agreeing to a deal to add Denver Nuggets guard Kentavious Caldwell-Pope.
Harris to Detroit on a 2-year contract
Deal:
Grade: D+
With the Pistons still far from competing for a playoff spot, I would have had two goals entering free agency: find value contracts for players young enough to grow with their core talent and, like the Houston Rockets last year, add players who can provide a better developmental support system.
Harris, who turns 32 next month, doesn’t fit into the former category. I’m uncertain just how well he fits the latter either. On the plus side, Harris does provide shooting. He’s a career 37% shooter beyond the arc, and Detroit will probably encourage Harris to increase his volume after attempting 3.9 3s per 36 minutes last season. Additionally, Harris’ distribution (3.1 assists per game, more than any non-guard averaged for the 2023-24 Pistons) is a particular strength when he lines up at power forward.
At the same time, Harris has been most comfortable playing with the ball in his hands. It was one thing to ask Harris to spot up while Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey operated. Doing so for Cade Cunningham and Jaden Ivey might be a different story. I hope Detroit has gotten buy-in from Harris on the veteran mentor role he’ll need to play supporting the development of Cunningham, Ivey and more recent lottery picks Ausar Thompson and Ron Holland II.
From a value standpoint, I’m not totally sure who the Pistons’ competition was to sign Harris. After the Oklahoma City Thunder signed Isaiah Hartenstein, the Orlando Magic and Utah Jazz were the two teams remaining with the cap space to make Harris an offer like this. Harris doesn’t feel like a fit for either team, while the Jazz’s cap space is likely earmarked in part for a renegotiation and extension with All-Star forward Lauri Markkanen.
Realistically, Detroit probably had to offer Harris enough to prevent him from signing a smaller contract with a contending team using the non-taxpayer midlevel exception. Although I think Harris is somewhat undervalued by the general public because of how poorly his 2024 playoffs went (Harris averaged just 9.0 points for the Philadelphia 76ers in their first-round loss to the New York Knicks), that isn’t the recipe for finding value in free agency.
On the plus side, the Pistons had so much spending power in free agency that they’re still sitting on the third-most cap space in the league (about $25 million) after signing Harris and striking a deal to add Tim Hardaway Jr. from the Dallas Mavericks. Detroit is well positioned to take on additional bad salaries using cap space or to add another contributor on a short-term contract.
Deal:
Grade: B-
For the Mavericks to acquire Thompson will require agreement from the Golden State Warriors on a three-team sign-and-trade that will see Dallas wing Josh Green head to the Charlotte Hornets. Pending completion of that deal, let’s consider how Thompson will fit.
After shooting just 32% from 3-point range during their five-game NBA Finals loss to the Boston Celtics, the Mavericks have taken bold steps this offseason to ensure that won’t happen again. Adding Thompson, who ranks sixth in league history in made 3s, is by far the biggest and most fascinating move for Dallas.
We’ve never seen Thompson play for anyone but the Warriors, a 13-year run — including two entire seasons lost to injury — that resulted in five All-Star appearances and four NBA championships. The last of those came in 2021-22, after Thompson returned midseason from an ACL tear followed by an Achilles rupture, a combination largely unprecedented in NBA history. Yet Thompson still averaged 19.0 PPG in the playoffs en route to the title.
Since returning, Thompson hasn’t been the same kind of defender, and his occasional lapses in shot selection became a greater source of friction last season. For the first time since his rookie season, Thompson came off the bench after the All-Star break this past season. Ultimately, Thompson and Golden State split, putting the Mavericks in position to pounce via sign-and-trade.
It will be interesting to see whether Dallas sees Thompson as a starter on the wing. He’s getting more money than fellow newcomer Naji Marshall, who agreed to a three-year, $27 million deal Sunday to fill the role played by incumbent Mavericks small forward Derrick Jones Jr. Starting Thompson would maximize the floor spacing for Dallas stars Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving at the expense of defense.
The Mavericks want to hide Doncic as much as possible defensively, and although Irving was strong individually throughout Dallas’ run to the Finals, asking him to defend high scorers during the regular season is unreasonable. Thompson is no longer capable of being a primary wing defender, which might suggest Marshall as the better fit in the starting five with Thompson as sixth man.
However the Mavericks line up to start games, coach Jason Kidd will have plenty of options. With Thompson replacing Green, Marshall replacing Jones and Quentin Grimes swapped in for Tim Hardaway Jr., Dallas goes 11 deep in terms of rotation-caliber players with a variety of strengths and weaknesses. Grimes and Dante Exum give Kidd strong defenders off the bench, while Hardy and Thompson will juice the team’s offense. The depth should help the Mavericks manage the regular season while Kidd sorts out the best rotations for the playoffs.
Ultimately, Dallas surely came back to all those Finals missed 3s in pursuing Thompson. With Boston capable of staying home on wing shooters and containing Doncic and Irving 1-on-1, the Mavericks neither got up enough 3-point attempts (they didn’t attempt more than 27 in any of the first three games, all losses) nor made enough of the shots they did try.
Thompson’s contested 3-point making will be a massive upgrade for Dallas. Per Second Spectrum tracking, Thompson shot the 10th-best 3-point percentage (39%) among players with at least 500 attempts on the sixth-hardest shot diet among those 26 players. Based on Second Spectrum’s quantified shot quality measure, we’d have expected an average shooter to make just 34% of Thompson’s 3-point attempts due to their location, shot type and the distance to nearby defenders.
I still wonder about the cost to the Mavericks’ defense. Going from Jones and Green as primary perimeter defenders to Marshall and Thompson is a massive drop-off only partly offset by adding Grimes.
If Thompson is going to finish games at small forward alongside one of Dallas’ two strong centers (Daniel Gafford and Dereck Lively II), that will probably compel P.J. Washington to defend wings with size. Washington struggled in that role before enjoying more success defending power forwards and occasionally cross-matching on centers once Jones moved into the Mavericks’ starting lineup after the All-Star break.
Adding Thompson undoubtedly makes Dallas a more interesting team but I’m not totally convinced it makes the Mavericks a better one.
Deal:
Grade: A-
Having officially said farewell to franchise legend Klay Thompson on Monday when he agreed to sign with the Dallas Mavericks, the Warriors replaced him on the roster by using their non-taxpayer midlevel exception to sign Melton.
Golden State is hoping this works out much like the last time the team signed a guard coming off an injury-marred season to a midlevel contract. That was Donte DiVincenzo, two years ago, and DiVincenzo parlayed a bounce-back campaign into a four-year deal with the New York Knicks.
Because the Warriors no longer project as taxpayers, the value isn’t quite as outrageous this time around as DiVincenzo’s $4.5 million salary. Still, had Melton stayed healthy after the Philadelphia 76ers started 22-11 with him in the lineup as a starting shooting guard, he would presumably have been looking at multiyear offers for the full midlevel exception or more.
A standout in terms of advanced all-in-one stats dating back to his lone college season at USC, Melton fills up the box score and has developed into an above-average 3-point shooter, having hit 38% over the last four seasons. As a result, Melton’s teams have typically played better with him on the court. Last season, when a stress response injury to the lumbar spine in Melton’s back overlapped with Joel Embiid‘s knee surgery, the difference was a considerable 10.3 points per 100 possessions according to Cleaning the Glass analysis.
As long as Melton is healthy after being limited to just eight appearances after Jan. 1 — the risk associated with this contract — I’m curious how Steve Kerr sees him fitting into Golden State’s rotation. After waiving Chris Paul, the Warriors don’t currently have a backup point guard and might consider using Melton in that role even though he’s not a natural playmaker. Playing Melton alongside the more creative Brandin Podziemski in second units would free up more minutes at shooting guard for Moses Moody.
I also like the idea of pairing Melton and fellow havoc creator Gary Payton II off the bench. Their defensive versatility would give Kerr plenty of options, and Melton’s progress as a shooter makes playing him with the less dangerous Payton (a 34.5% career 3-point shooter on just 3.3 attempts per 36 minutes) viable offensively.
As with DiVincenzo, if Melton plays well enough, Golden State could be priced out of re-signing him using non-Bird rights. In this case, however, that would require a team to use cap space to make a bigger offer. If that happens, Melton will have been such a great value for the Warriors the result will be worth it.
George agrees to max contract with the Sixers
Grade: A
Consider George’s arrival and departure from the Clippers to be bookends in an era marked by relatively little movement of stars in free agency, with trades instead becoming their most common method of changing teams.
Over the four offseasons since George was traded to the Clippers to join Kawhi Leonard, who signed with the team as a free agent, no current All-Stars changed teams via free agency the summer after being chosen for the game. George is the first since 2019, making this a monumental move — particularly since he’s teaming up with former MVP Joel Embiid and Most Improved Player winner Tyrese Maxey in Philadelphia.
One of the most reductive pieces of NBA analysis possible is to say that a star would be an ideal second-best player on a championship contender. Naturally, if a player is already and has a teammate that is better than him, their team would be quite good too.
It’s with that self-caveat in mind that I note how ideally suited George is to become the No. 3 option on offense for the 76ers after years of being the second star alongside first Russell Westbrook with the Oklahoma City Thunder and more recently Leonard with the LA Clippers.
Part of the reason star trios haven’t always worked as well on the court as on paper is that the ability to create offense at high volume without sacrificing much efficiency is largely what makes players stars. That skill is no longer as important when stars team up, making it important for players to bring secondary skills to the table like floor spacing and defense.
Consider that among the 36 NBA players who averaged at least 22 PPG last season, George’s time of possession — 20% of the time the Clippers were on offense — ranked sixth-lowest according to analysis of Second Spectrum tracking data. George barely held the ball more than Tobias Harris (17% of the time), the player he’s effectively replacing in Philadelphia’s offensive pecking order who averaged just 17.2 PPG.
When he doesn’t have the ball in his hands, George can be a dangerous threat spotting up while Embiid is isolating or playing pick-and-roll with Maxey. He’s coming off making a career-high 41% of his 3-point attempts last season on 8.5 attempts per 36 minutes and shot nearly 40% from long distance during five seasons with the Clippers.
Beyond that, an atypically high amount of George’s value comes on defense for a high-scoring star wing. A four-time All-Defensive pick, albeit most recently in 2018-19, George is no longer the turnover-creating dynamo he was in his prime yet still has a massive impact at the team level. In four of the past six seasons, his teams have allowed at least five fewer points per 100 possessions with him on the court according to Cleaning the Glass analysis.
As clean a fit as George is, the Sixers will have to deal with the other issue star trios have faced in recent years: sacrificing depth for top-end talent. Despite being uniquely positioned to clear cap space to add George because of Maxey’s $13 million cap hold, Philadelphia will likely have fewer proven two-way contributors than the other top contenders in the East, the defending champion Boston Celtics and New York Knicks.
On Sunday, the 76ers agreed to deals to add center Andre Drummond using cap space and re-sign small forward Kelly Oubre Jr. to a contract that can use their $8 million room exception. With George on the books at the max, starting at $49.2 million this season, that leaves about $9 million for Philadelphia to finish shopping in free agency and a depth chart currently devoid of power forwards.
Even if the Sixers split their remaining money between a couple of players, they’re looking at filling out the roster with at least six players making the veterans minimum. The lure of playing alongside Embiid, George and Maxey should help Philadelphia recruit some of the best players willing to play for the minimum, but we’ve seen with the Los Angeles Lakers after the Russell Westbrook trade and the Phoenix Suns last season how challenging putting together a minimum-heavy roster can be.
Pending those signings, I’d put the Sixers a notch behind New York in the East, with both teams staring up at a defending champion Celtics team that returns its entire playoff rotation.
Down the road, a key question will be whether Philadelphia can utilize the taxpayer midlevel exception next offseason without pushing above the second luxury tax apron. Alternatively, the 76ers could re-sign players to slightly larger contracts that would make them more viable as matching salary in trades, a way to utilize the extra draft picks Philadelphia acquired in the James Harden trade last year.
The path to putting a championship-level supporting cast around a big three of Embiid, George and Maxey won’t be easy, but the 76ers might have the front office best suited for figuring it out. Part of the emphasis Philadelphia president of basketball operations Daryl Morey has long put on acquiring stars is because of his faith in finding undervalued role players to surround them.
In this case, pursuing George was the obvious path once the Sixers committed to using cap space this summer at the trade deadline. Unlike teams that trade for stars, Philadelphia has managed to accumulate three All-Stars without jeopardizing future draft picks. The 76ers are out a pair of protected picks and own theirs outright from 2029 onward.
Given the concerns about depth, adding George might not bring a long-awaited title to Philadelphia. No matter what, it’s going to make for a fascinating 2024-25 season and beyond.
White, Celtics agree to 4-year extension
Grade: A
As other contenders seek to load up, the Celtics’ front office is quietly going about locking in last season’s championship core for as long as possible. Having agreed Sunday to re-sign backup center Luke Kornet, the only Boston free agent who played more than 700 minutes in the regular season or 70 minutes in the playoffs, the Celtics struck a larger deal Monday to extend their starting guard through 2028-29.
Had White hit free agency coming off a season where he merited All-Star consideration and was arguably Boston’s best player in the first two rounds of the playoffs (averaging 18.2 PPG, 3.8 RPG and 3.8 APG on near 50/40/90 shooting splits), he would likely have commanded an even larger contract than this with the NBA’s salary cap going up and few unrestricted free agents of note.
That reality compelled the Celtics to step up with the best possible offer for White, who got the largest allowable salary (starting at a 40% increase from the bargain $20 million salary he’ll make in 2024-25) and a player option on the final season of the contract. For White, the security of locking in a contract now and staying on a championship contender in Boston made it worth forgoing the possibility of more money next summer.
Extending White still requires a massive financial commitment from the Celtics, who will also surely sign Jayson Tatum to a designated veteran “supermax” extension sometime soon. That would give Boston a projected $205 million committed to six players for 2025-26 before the Celtics consider an extension for key reserve Sam Hauser or re-signing Al Horford. That’s already enough to push Boston over the second apron just as the team begins paying a repeater tax that will grow even more punitive next season.
It’s no wonder then, that the White news came just before ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski reported that Boston’s ownership plans to sell a majority share in the team by 2028. Keeping these Celtics together beyond the next two seasons might require deeper pockets than Boston’s current ownership has. That’s a concern for another day. For now, Boston is readying for a run at becoming a dynasty.
OKC lands center Isaiah Hartenstein
Grade: A-
Having already added Alex Caruso via trade this offseason, the Thunder are now taking advantage of approximately $30 million in cap space to sign one of the top free agents to change teams.
In an ideal world, I think Oklahoma City would have targeted a combo forward who could space the floor and defend multiple positions. That player didn’t really exist in free agency, so the Thunder sought to instead upgrade their size and rebounding while also doubling down on their strength protecting the rim.
A full-time starter for the first time in his career after Mitchell Robinson‘s injury last season, Hartenstein made a massive difference on defense for the New York Knicks and would have been a strong All-Defensive candidate had he played enough games to be eligible. Among players who defended at least five shots within 5 feet last season, the 52.5% opponents shot against Hartenstein was seventh-lowest according to Second Spectrum tracking on NBA Advanced Stats — one spot behind Oklahoma City’s Chet Holmgren.
No team in the league boasted two top-10 rim protectors last season, with Milwaukee’s duo of Brook Lopez (ninth) and Giannis Antetokounmpo (13th) coming closest. The Thunder will be able to roll out 48 minutes of elite rim protection, and lineups with both Hartenstein and Holmgren together in the frontcourt could be nearly impossible to beat at the rim.
How well the two players fit offensively will determine just how much Hartenstein plays in Oklahoma City. Holmgren played nearly exclusively at center as a rookie, maximizing the Thunder’s offense with five-out spacing. Just 4% of his minutes came alongside another center, typically reserve Jaylin Williams, although we saw a little more of that look during Oklahoma City’s playoff loss to the Dallas Mavericks.
Thunder coach Mark Daigneault will have to tweak his spacing, but Hartenstein can serve as the dive man in pick-and-rolls while Holmgren and Oklahoma City’s other two perimeter players are spotted up. And when Hartenstein is in the dunker spot, he’s at least a more threatening presence there than the perimeter players (most notably now-departed Josh Giddey) the Thunder hid there against Dallas. Hartenstein also offers elite offensive rebounding the team’s five-out style didn’t provide, ranking 28th in offensive rebound percentage (and 29th on the defensive glass).
My suspicion is Oklahoma City will begin the season with Hartenstein as the starting center, bringing Caruso off the bench in part to manage his minutes during the regular season. By the playoffs, that could change depending on matchups. Even if Hartenstein’s pairing with Holmgren proves untenable and he’s primarily a backup center, the Thunder can afford that given the way his salary fits into their cap sheet.
The third year of Hartenstein’s contract is a team option, meaning Oklahoma City is guaranteeing his salary only during the two-year window where Holmgren and fellow starter Jalen Williams are on their cheap rookie contracts. The Thunder should be safely below the luxury tax during that period before assessing how to handle Hartenstein’s option with Holmgren and Williams starting more lucrative new deals.
Getting Hartenstein to sign off on that structure required Oklahoma City to offer a larger annual salary than the Knicks (limited to a four-year, $78 million offer using early Bird rights) possibly could. In the event the Thunder decline his team option, Hartenstein could still come out far ahead financially over the next four seasons by getting the non-taxpayer midlevel exception as a free agent in two years, when he’ll be 28.
I’m not convinced playing Holmgren at power forward is the ultimate way for Oklahoma City to pursue a championship, but given the alternatives in free agency, this path makes sense for now. And in the worst-case scenario where Hartenstein isn’t a fit, he should retain enough trade value on this contract to be matching salary in pursuit of the Thunder’s dream fifth starter.
76ers, Maxey agree to max extension
Grade: A
After getting an agreement from Paul George to sign on in the early hours of Monday morning, the 76ers circled back to officially reach a deal to re-sign Maxey. The timing of these transactions is key for Philadelphia, which can keep Maxey’s $13 million cap hold on the books while using cap space before re-signing him with Bird rights for the largest possible deal starting at more than $35 million per season.
That sequence will likely push the Sixers into the luxury tax, but it maximized their spending power and facilitated adding a third All-Star to Maxey and 2023 MVP Joel Embiid.
Maxey has surely been in on these plans since last fall, when Philadelphia declined to extend him ahead of the final season of his rookie contract with an eye toward using cap space. By that point, Maxey already had a reasonable case to command the smaller 25% max salary for players with six or fewer years of experience. Winning Most Improved Player and making the All-Star Game for the first time only strengthened Maxey’s bargaining position.
Given the security he gave up by playing last season without an extension, it is surprising Maxey didn’t end up with a player option to make this as favorable a contract as possible from his perspective. That fifth year, which will come when the salary cap is projected at $206 million as compared to the current $140.6 million, figures to be a bargain for the team with Maxey in his prime at age 28.
There is still a little more work for the 76ers before they get to filling out their roster with minimum contracts. Assuming they waive or trade backup big man Paul Reed to facilitate using cap space to sign center Andre Drummond, and with the room exception earmarked for Kelly Oubre Jr., that leaves Philadelphia with about $9 million to spend. Presumably, the Sixers will target a power forward to fill out their starting lineup.
Jones joins the Clippers out West
Grade: B+
Hours after taking the unusual step of issuing a statement indicating they would not re-sign Paul George as a free agent, the Clippers replaced him on the wing with one of the top alternatives available using the non-taxpayer midlevel exception.
Jones is coming off a career year with the Dallas Mavericks. After signing for the veterans minimum with Dallas last summer, he started a career-high 66 games — more starts than he’d ever played games in a season — and all 22 in the playoffs as the Mavericks reached the NBA Finals.
With his long arms, Jones replaces much of the defensive versatility George provided on the wing. Jones was responsible for guarding All-Star perimeter players throughout Dallas’ playoff run — including George — meaning he can take that role off Kawhi Leonard‘s plate and free Leonard to roam as a terrifying help defender.
At the other end of the court, the Clippers will obviously see a massive drop-off from George to Jones. Last season’s 8.6 points per game, a career-high mark for Jones, were less than half of the 22.6 points George averaged. Jones isn’t particularly comfortable operating with the ball in his hands and had never made 3s at even an average rate during the regular season (last year’s 34% was a career high) before hitting 37% during the Dallas playoff run.
When the Clippers are at full strength, they might be able to compensate for the downgrade. In Leonard and James Harden, who agreed to a new two-year deal reported Sunday, the Clippers have two volume shot creators. The problem is last season’s 68 games were the most Leonard has played since 2016-17, and he still was sidelined for four of the six games in the Clippers’ first-round loss to Jones and the Mavericks.
If Leonard is out of the lineup, the Clippers will be relying heavily on Harden to create more offense after his usage rate dropped to 21% last season. Should the Clippers trade Russell Westbrook, who picked up his player option over the weekend, that would leave Norman Powell as the only Clippers regular besides Harden and Leonard who used plays at even a league-average rate in 2023-24.
It’s plausible there could be more help on the way via trade. Despite hard-capping themselves at the lower luxury tax apron by either acquiring Jones in a sign-and-trade or signing him using the non-taxpayer midlevel exception, the Clippers do have some spending power with George off their books. They currently project about $12 million below that first apron with 13 players under contract. If the Clippers could trade away one of their expiring contracts without taking back salary, it might give them enough money to add DeMar DeRozan or Klay Thompson via sign-and-trade.
Adding another scorer would enhance Jones’ value to the Clippers as a wing defender. Pending that possibility, the value looks perfectly solid. The version of Jones we saw last season was probably worth more than $10 million. Although there’s reason to fear Jones aging quickly because of his reliance on physical ability, the rising salary cap mitigates that downside.
Paul to team up with Wembanyama in San Antonio
Deal:
Grade: A
Following one season with the Golden State Warriors, 19-year NBA veteran Chris Paul agreed to a one-year, $11 million contract with the San Antonio Spurs. The deal will pair Paul, a 12-time All-Star, with reigning Rookie of the Year Victor Wembanyama. The Spurs experimented with several options at point guard during Wembanyama’s first season, but none had the pedigree of Paul, who is currently third all time in career assists. After finishing with a 22-60 record last season, Paul’s veteran presence will be a positive change for the young San Antonio roster. A full breakdown of the deal can be found here.
Drummond back in Philadelphia on 2-year deal
Deal:
Grade: B
Two-plus years after the Sixers were forced to include Drummond in their trade with the Brooklyn Nets for James Harden, they’ve reacquired him as the backup to MVP center Joel Embiid. Back then, Philadelphia signed Drummond for the veterans minimum in free agency following the conclusion of a five-year deal with the Detroit Pistons worth $127 million. Drummond got more, barely, from the Chicago Bulls the following summer and is now making his highest salary since 2020-21 with his style of play back in vogue.
As teams trend bigger in the frontcourt and focus on the offensive glass, Drummond’s historic levels of securing misses by his team have become valued again. Drummond, who led qualified players in offensive rebounding percentage four times with the Pistons, according to Basketball-Reference.com, actually managed a career high in the category last season at 21.5% of available misses — higher than four teams managed as a whole.
Finding a backup for Embiid is tricky because the 76ers’ offense is built so heavily around the MVP’s unique skill set. Drummond succeeded in the role prior to the 2021-22 trade deadline, as Philadelphia outscored opponents by 0.6 points per 100 possessions with him on the court, according to NBA Advanced Stats. The Sixers were actually better than that with backup Paul Reed on the court this regular season (plus-4.2 net rating) but were outscored by a whopping 44 points in his 43 minutes of action in the first round against the physical New York Knicks.
With Drummond’s return, Philly will surely waive Reed, whose $7.7 million salary for 2024-25 is non-guaranteed because the 76ers did not win a playoff series. (That unusual guarantee structure came from Reed’s offer sheet with the Utah Jazz matched by Philadelphia last summer.) Although Drummond’s salary could fit in the $8 million room exception, more realistically the Sixers will take out of cap space, leaving them with $57 million to spend if they renounce the rights to all of their free agents — enough to fit a max deal for Paul George with room to spare.
Deal:
Grade: B
The reigning Western Conference champs will have a slightly different look on the wing next season after adding Marshall with the non-taxpayer midlevel exception they would have had to use to re-sign incumbent small forward Derrick Jones Jr.
It’s possible in theory the Mavericks could still sign both players by acquiring Marshall in a sign-and-trade, but that wouldn’t work with the report from ESPN’s Tim MacMahon that they’re pursuing a sign-and-trade deal for longtime Golden State Warriors star Klay Thompson.
Give Dallas credit for not overvaluing Jones because he was such a success story playing last season on the veterans minimum. The Mavericks got a career campaign out of Jones, whose move into the starting lineup helped kickstart the second-half surge that ultimately led them to the NBA Finals. But, Dallas would be right to wonder whether Jones could maintain that value over the life of a four-year deal.
Much of Jones’ NBA success has been tied to his vertical, and at 27 he’s reaching the stage where his physical ability will start to wane. Jones might be just fine, particularly if he maintains the 37% 3-point shooting we saw in last year’s playoffs (up from 34% during the regular season), but Dallas couldn’t count on Jones remaining a lob threat in transition and as a cutter down the road.
Marshall is only a year younger but has displayed more skill in grinding his way from undrafted rookie to key reserve for the New Orleans Pelicans. Marshall, too, enjoyed a career year in 2023-24 beyond the arc but pushed his 3-point percentage all the way to 39%. Marshall’s solid free throw shooting (78% career, as compared to 71% for Jones) offers reason to believe he can remain average or better going forward.
Defensively, Marshall isn’t as strong on the ball as Jones, who excelled in that role during the Mavericks’ playoff run. Playing alongside All-Defensive first-team pick Herb Jones, Marshall wasn’t tasked with guarding leading scorers as often, and a downgrade at that end of the court is the biggest risk Dallas is taking here.
That said, getting Marshall for an average of $9 million per year — about 70% of the non-tax midlevel — is excellent value. And it might open up the possibility of the Mavericks also adding Thompson. Adding Marshall will hard cap Dallas on the lower luxury tax apron. (Re-signing Jones using the non-tax midlevel would have done so as well.) Currently, the Mavericks sit about $5.8 million below that line, including the non-guaranteed salary of wing A.J. Lawson.
To pay Thompson the full $16 million trade exception Dallas can generate by completing the deal reported last Friday sending Tim Hardaway Jr. to the Detroit Pistons, the Mavericks would have to cut about $10.3 million in salary. That points to Josh Green ($12.7 million) or Maxi Kleber ($11 million), either of whom could be acquired without sending any salary back by a team using its non-tax midlevel under new CBA rules that kick in this summer.
Given that possibility, Dallas surely isn’t done retooling last season’s roster just yet.
Deal:
Grade: B
Having traded 23-year-old starting small forward Deni Avdija to the Portland Trail Blazers in a deal that gave them three picks in the first round of last week’s NBA draft, the Wizards were an unlikely candidate to add a veteran center in free agency. In that context, signing Valanciunas seems like some combination of pragmatism and opportunism.
This has been a tough market for big men. Despite mashing the undersized Oklahoma City Thunder to the tune of 14.5 points per game and 11.5 rebounds per game in the playoffs, Valanciunas also saw his defensive weaknesses on display in that first-round sweep. With the New Orleans Pelicans challenged financially and Los Angeles Lakers apparently uninterested in using their non-taxpayer midlevel exception on a traditional big man, Valanciunas had to settle for a sub-midlevel deal with what will likely be one of the NBA’s worst teams.
Ultimately, Valanciunas heading to Washington is a marriage of convenience that could work out for both sides. It’s an opportunity for him to reprove his value on a team that will be starved for efficient shot creation. Valanciunas post-ups yielded 1.07 points per chance for the Pelicans, ranking just outside the top 10 among the 41 players with at least 100 post-ups, according to Second Spectrum tracking. That will likely beat the output from the Wizards’ young guards.
Additionally, Washington’s recent draft picks will benefit from having Valanciunas as a big target in pick-and-rolls. Although less relatively frequent, ball screens set by Valanciunas resulted in 1.04 points per chance, better than any Wizards screener who set at least 400.
As soon as the trade deadline, there could be more over-the-cap teams interested in adding Valanciunas by sending out equivalent salary. Making a move like that now via sign-and-trade would have hard capped them at the lower luxury tax apron. By that point, Washington may also be more ready to start No. 2 overall pick Alex Sarr, who won’t turn 20 until after the season. Depending how bad the salary is the Wizards are willing to take back, trading Valanciunas at the deadline could bring back meaningful draft compensation.
Deal:
Grade: B
With nine-time Paul George on the way out, the Clippers needed to retain Harden, who agreed to a two-year, $70 million deal with the franchise early in the free agency window. Harden, who averaged 16 points and 8.5 assists per game last season, will return to LA to play with Kawhi Leonard as the Clippers open a new stadium next season. The full breakdown of the signing can be found here.
Deal:
Grade: B
In the first big move of 2024 free agency, the Magic are set to sign a two-time NBA title winner away from the Denver Nuggets.
An outstanding 3-point shooter (41.5% over two seasons in Denver, with several years of 38% shooting before that) who can defend either guard spot, Caldwell-Pope is precisely the kind of role player who tends to fill out winning teams. He was a key player on the 2019-2020 Los Angeles Lakers team that won in the bubble and one of the final pieces of the 2022-23 Nuggets after being acquired via trade the previous summer.
Caldwell-Pope probably won’t be that player for an Orlando team that isn’t quite ready to compete for championships yet. Nonetheless, he’s a solid upgrade for a Magic team that started another former Denver shooting guard (Gary Harris) alongside Jalen Suggs in the backcourt last year. As compared to Harris, Caldwell-Pope is a tad bigger and a somewhat better shooter, as well as more capable of creating his own offense.
In particular, I’m excited about the prospect of pairing Caldwell-Pope in the backcourt with Suggs, who emerged as one of the NBA’s top on-ball defenders last season. Caldwell-Pope’s ability to defend anywhere on the perimeter will allow Orlando coach Jamahl Mosley to mix and match in a similar way to how the Boston Celtics deployed Jrue Holiday and Derrick White last season. Caldwell-Pope hasn’t rated quite at that level defensively during his career, but he’s more than capable as an individual defender and generates steals at an above-average rate.
Perhaps the most interesting part of this signing is that the Magic might not be finished yet. If Caldwell-Pope’s contract is structured with max 5% raises, Orlando could still generate about $29 million in cap space before using the $8 million room midlevel. The latter should be enough to re-sign at least one of Joe Ingles and Moritz Wagner after the Magic declined their team options Saturday.
Ideally, Orlando would add one more efficient shot creator on the perimeter. Going from Harris to Caldwell-Pope doesn’t move the needle in that regard, and while the Magic don’t want to take the ball out of the hands of young forwards Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner entirely, relieving some of the pressure on them would be a positive.
It’s hypothetically possible for Orlando to add both Caldwell-Pope and Paul George without needing to deal away too much of last season’s roster. The $17.4 million non-guaranteed salary for reserve forward Jonathan Isaac gives the Magic some degree of flexibility in that scenario. More realistically, Orlando could look at using cap space to deal for another ball handler while offering cap relief as part of the return.
Down the road, Orlando does need to prepare for Suggs and Wagner to begin lucrative extensions in 2025-26 season, with Banchero due for one the following season. By then, a player option for Caldwell-Pope could be a way for the Magic to restructure his contract, offering a longer guarantee in exchange for a smaller annual salary.
For now, Orlando will likely do more to upgrade using cap space than any playoff team besides the 76ers. It’s still possible the Magic take a slight step back next season because they jumped all the way from the lottery to the No. 5 seed, but Orlando’s long-term outlook remains bright.
On the other side, Nuggets GM Calvin Booth seemed to be preparing fans for this possibility when he told reporters after the NBA draft, “I think we’ll be OK if KCP doesn’t return.” Booth touted third-year wing Christian Braun as Caldwell-Pope’s replacement, noting Denver’s strong net rating with Braun and Nikola Jokic on the court together.
Despite trading away Reggie Jackson in a money-saving move last week, the Nuggets are still too close to the second luxury tax apron to use their non-taxpayer midlevel exception. That leaves Denver with only the $5.2 million tax midlevel to seek a replacement in free agency. No wonder Booth also touted a “plug and play” approach with second-year wing Julian Strawther likely stepping into a larger reserve role.
Deal:
Grade: B
Having declined a $4 million player option for 2024-25, Love apparently replaced it with a nearly identical salary on a two-year contract. Added by Miami after the 2022 trade deadline following a buyout with the Cleveland Cavaliers, Love played an important reserve role in 2023-24, boosting his scoring average to 8.8 points at age 35. (He’ll turn 36 in September.)
Having played primarily power forward for the Heat during the 2022-23 regular season, Love was almost exclusively a backup to Bam Adebayo last season. (The two players saw just 226 minutes of action together, per NBA Advanced Stats.) In that role, Love’s 3-point shooting (34% on a massive 9.5 attempts per 36 minutes) is a plus, creating space for Miami’s perimeter players to work.
The amount of zone defense the Heat’s second unit plays mitigates Love’s biggest weakness as a center — his lack of rim protection. Love hasn’t averaged even a block per 36 minutes since his rookie season and was at 0.5 last season. Eventually, Miami will want No. 15 pick Kel’el Ware to take over as the backup center to upgrade around the basket, but for now Miami needs Love.
Penciling in a $4 million starting salary for Love puts Miami within $5 million of the lower luxury tax apron with 11 players under contract. The Heat will likely have a choice between using their taxpayer midlevel exception or re-signing forward Caleb Martin as an unrestricted free agent. Bringing Martin back would surely push Miami over the second apron.
Deal:
Grade: B-
Christie might be the last of his kind, a second-round pick who became a restricted free agent after his second season. The second-round exception now allows teams to sign their second-round picks to longer contracts without having to use part of their midlevel exception.
During his sophomore NBA campaign, played primarily while he was 20, Christie showed enough promise to make him a compelling restricted free agent. Christie hit 36% of his 3s while flashing the ability to defend both wing spots at 6-foot-6. On a Lakers roster sorely lacking in young talent, Christie stood out, requiring the Lakers to give him a substantial raise after two seasons at the minimum.
The challenge is how Christie’s new salary fits in as the Lakers contemplate using their midlevel exception in conjunction with LeBron James taking less salary for 2024-25 after declining his $51.4 million player option.
Including Christie, whose contract is projected to begin at $7.1 million with maximum raises, the Lakers now have $138.3 million committed to 13 players. Add in $700,000 unlikely incentives for D’Angelo Russell and that leaves $39 million and change to spend up to the lower luxury tax apron that would become a hard cap if the Lakers use the non-tax midlevel. That means a starting salary of $26 million for James, barring other money-saving moves.
The easiest of those would be dealing center Christian Wood, who picked up a $3 million player option and could be traded to any team because he’s making the minimum. Still, that would just take the Lakers to $29 million at most for James. It will be interesting to see if he’s still willing to take that substantial a discount in order to help the Lakers add a veteran contributor.
As for Christie, expectations will increase with his pay. A combination of average 3-point shooting with sub-50% accuracy inside the arc left Christie fairly inefficient overall (.544 true shooting percentage, as compared to a league average of .580) relative to his small role in the Lakers’ offense (14% usage). Besides improved shooting, Christie would also benefit from generating more steals defensively.
On the plus side, Christie has years of development left on a contract that takes him through age 25. Comparable players at the same age according to my SCHOENE projection system, including Malik Beasley and Anfernee Simons (then playing primarily off-ball), developed into plus offensive players. If Christie progresses too much, the Lakers may regret giving him a player option on the last season of his contract, something they often offer free agents.
Deal:
Grade: B-
A year ago tomorrow, the New York Knicks agreed to send Toppin to the Pacers for second-round picks in what amounted to a financially motivated move. Consider it something of a best-case scenario that he’s now re-signing for a substantial raise on last year’s $6.8 million salary.
Toppin’s skill set fit far better with Indiana’s up-tempo offense (No. 2 in possessions per game) than slow-paced New York (No. 30). Although Toppin lost his starting job to Aaron Nesmith in late December, he settled in as a key part of the Pacers’ rotation and averaged a career-high 10.3 points per game while making an incredible 71% of his 2-point attempts and a career-best 40% of his 3s.
The playoffs were the real test for Toppin, who has never been known for his defense. He passed, maintaining his playing time and increasing his scoring to 10.9 PPG as the competition stiffened during Indiana’s unexpected run to the conference finals. Toppin played well enough to make him a potential target for teams armed with the non-taxpayer midlevel exception, convincing the Pacers to beat that deal (projected at $55 million over four years) to assure no offer sheet for the restricted free agent.
Down the road, paying Toppin and Pascal Siakam at the same position where Indiana added Jarace Walker with the No. 7 pick a year ago could make for a logjam. But it’s possible that might not be an issue. Toppin played relatively more at center in the playoffs, maintaining the five-out look the Pacers get with starting center Myles Turner, while Siakam and Walker could slide to small forward. It’s worth monitoring the future of the position as Walker continues to develop.
For now, Jalen Smith declining his $5.4 million player option will allow Indiana to fill out its roster while staying safely below the luxury tax line. Re-signing Toppin assures the Pacers will have their top nine players in playoff minutes under contract for 2024-25, maintaining continuity with a growing young roster.
Deal:
Grade: D
This contract for Williams seems like the latest case of the Chicago front office overvaluing the talent on the team’s own roster, which has produced below-.500 results each of the past two seasons.
The Bulls were actually better in 2023-24 after Williams was lost to a midfoot injury that required season-ending surgery. Williams’ 43 starts produced a 36-win pace, and while the contrast was largely about having Alex Caruso as a replacement, it still speaks poorly of Williams’ ability to help a team win at this stage in his career.
Certainly, there’s a scenario where having Williams under contract from ages 23 through 27 at a yearly salary below what the average starter will command as the NBA cap increases could prove a win for Chicago. If Williams realizes the potential that made him the No. 4 pick of the 2020 draft, he could regret locking in for the maximum five years instead of getting back into free agency beforehand.
Four years into Williams’ career, however, we’re still waiting to see that kind of development. Williams is largely the same player he was as a teenager starting for the Bulls as a rookie. Williams has been a high-percentage 3-point shooter (40% last season, 41% career), but on such limited volume (last year’s 4.5 attempts per 36 minutes were a career high) that teams don’t feel compelled to guard him like a threat.
Williams’ accuracy inside the arc, meanwhile, has gone the wrong direction with modestly more responsibility on offense. Last season’s 47% was a career low, and it meant Williams scored with below-average efficiency (.553 true shooting, compared with the league average of .580) in a smaller-than-average role (17% usage).
If Williams were a lockdown defender, that kind of offensive production might be acceptable for a starter. Though he’s certainly versatile, showing the ability to defend all three wing spots at 6-foot-7, Williams hasn’t made a consistently positive impact on defense. In fact, adjusted plus-minus data shows Williams as a below-average defender after factoring in teammates, opponents and shooting luck.
The biggest problem is that Chicago’s other overpays — most notably to re-sign Zach LaVine and Nikola Vucevic — give the team little margin for error when it comes to contracts. With 13 players under contract, including second-year wing Onuralp Bitim with a non-guaranteed salary, the Bulls now stand about $22 million below the projected luxury tax line before re-signing unrestricted free agent DeMar DeRozan.
Paying the luxury tax as a likely play-in team is an untenable situation for Chicago, and while some relief is coming when the contract of injured guard Lonzo Ball ends after this season, the Bulls’ ability to improve their roster outside of internal development is compromised by their lack of financial flexibility. Williams must take a considerable step forward in his development to ensure we aren’t saying the same thing about his contract in a few seasons.
O’Neale nets 4-year deal to stay with the Suns
Deal:
Grade: B-
Few free agents have ever been in a more favorable position than Royce O’Neale thanks to the restrictions on teams above the second luxury tax apron in the NBA collective bargaining agreement that kick in this season.
Not only were the Phoenix Suns unable to replace O’Neale with a free agent of equivalent value because they’re well above the second apron, they couldn’t sign anyone for more than the veteran’s minimum. Additionally, now that Phoenix is prevented from aggregating multiple salaries together to make trades, finding matching contracts is a challenge.
All of that gave O’Neale atypical bargaining power for a 31-year-old role player who has never averaged double-figure scoring and started just 14 games last season. Within reason, O’Neale could name his price and the Suns would have little choice but to pay. That earned O’Neale, who worked hard to develop offensively after reaching the NBA as an undrafted rookie at age 24, the biggest payday of his career.
Structuring this as a four-year deal does allow Phoenix to put off the highest salaries until later years, when the salary cap will go up thanks to the NBA’s pending new national TV deals. O’Neale’s $9.8 million starting salary is only a modest raise from last year’s $9.2 million. Nonetheless, the cost to the Suns of bringing O’Neale back will be immense.
Pending Phoenix filling out the roster, it’s likely the Suns will be farther over the luxury tax line than any team in NBA history has been to finish the season, meaning each additional dollar in salary could cost them up to 6.25 times that amount in taxes. Based on reasonable assumptions, re-signing O’Neale could add more than $50 million in salary and taxes for Phoenix this year.
The drawback to O’Neale getting more than he likely would have been offered elsewhere is he becomes a strong candidate for a trade. If the Suns are looking to upgrade using the second-round picks they have as sweeteners — the way O’Neale arrived from the Brooklyn Nets at the February trade deadline — his salary and versatility make him a likely target. I’d guess the possibility of O’Neale landing in a less desirable spot is baked into the contract he commanded.
Quickley to sign 5-year deal to stay in Toronto
Deal:
Grade: B-
Days after the New York Knicks agreed to a new contract with OG Anunoby, the Raptors have done the same with the key player they got in return from New York by trading Anunoby at the turn of the year.
Part of the appeal of that trade for Toronto was that Quickley, heading into restricted free agency, would likely come cheaper than Anunoby as an unrestricted free agent after declining a 2025-26 player option. Despite the ability to match any offer to Quickley, the Raptors are essentially paying him the same amount of his maximum salary (86%) as the Knicks did with Anunoby (87%).
The willingness by Toronto to go beyond the maximum total salary any other team could offer Quickley (a four-year deal projected at $152 million) suggests they feared such an offer sheet — rare in recent years because of the way they tie up a team’s cap space through the moratorium period. Deandre Ayton, then with the Phoenix Suns, was the only player to receive a max offer sheet in the past seven years. (Phoenix immediately matched the offer from the Indiana Pacers.)
A Quickley offer sheet from another team would surely have been less favorable from the Raptors’ perspective, potentially giving him all the possible benefits above and beyond that salary, including a 15% trade bonus and a player option on the final season of his contract.
By comparison, a five-year deal for Quickley without a player option as yet reported gives Toronto far more upside if he develops into an All-Star. By the final season of this deal, 2028-29, he’ll be making $39.8 million at age 29 while the maximum salary for players in their first seven NBA campaigns will likely climb north of $50 million.
At the same time, paying Quickley $35 million a year does put pressure on him to prove he’s a quality starting point guard rather than merely the supersub he was in New York. Early returns were promising, as Quickley averaged 18.6 PPG and 6.8 APG in 38 starts with the Raptors, the assist average nearly double his previous career high. By shooting 39.5% from 3-point range, Quickley maintained league-average efficiency despite a tougher shot diet with less talent around him.
Because Toronto has full Bird rights on Quickley, the team can utilize his smaller $12.5 million cap hold if the Raptors decide to decline a $23 million team option for wing Bruce Brown Jr. and create about $17 million in cap space before officially inking this contract. Alternatively, Toronto could keep Brown with an eye toward potentially trading him and use the slightly smaller $12.8 million non-taxpayer midlevel exception.
Either way, with big contracts kicking in for first Quickley and then Scottie Barnes‘ max extension next summer, this offseason is an important opportunity for the Raptors to utilize cap flexibility to add to a young core of Barnes, Quickley and RJ Barrett.
Deal:
Grade: B-
The Knicks’ willingness to trade four of their own future first-round picks in the deal with the Brooklyn Nets to bring Mikal Bridges to Manhattan reported Tuesday signaled a confidence that they could re-sign Anunoby to play with him on the wing. Anunoby and Bridges are a potent duo of defenders with more ability to generate offense than most players of their ilk.
Part of the reason New York gave up so much for Bridges was his bargain contract, which will pay him $47.9 million over the next two seasons. Anunoby alone will make more than that in the last year of this contract — a player option worth $48.4 million.
The Knicks’ willingness to go north of $40 million average salary over the course of this contract strongly suggests they expected another team to make Anunoby a max four-year offer, worth $182 million based on current cap projections. New York could pay more than that thanks to the ability to offer a fifth year using Bird rights, up to a maximum of $245 million.
The most important number here is Anunoby’s starting salary of $36.6 million. That’s enough to put the Knicks right on the threshold of the lower luxury-tax apron, which New York would be subject to if the Bridges trade is completed as a one-for-one deal in exchange for Bojan Bogdanovic.
If the Knicks add more salary going out in the Bridges trade, potentially via sign-and-trade involving one of their own free agents, that will subject them to a hard cap at the higher second apron and give them about $11 million more to fill out their roster.
By signing Anunoby to the longest contract possible, New York is counting on the salary cap escalating faster than his max 8% raises once the new national TV deal kicks in. By 2028-29, the last year of Anunoby’s deal, he projects to take up 23% of the cap as compared to the starting point of 26% — although that might make it more likely he declines a player option.
A five-year deal takes Anunoby, who will turn 27 next month, through the remainder of his prime. A $42.5 million average salary sounds like a lot for a player who has never been an All-Star, or all that close. It might even prove too much, but it assures the Knicks will be perhaps the biggest threat to the Boston Celtics after adding Bridges.
Deal:
Grade: A
Given Adebayo’s central role as the keeper of “Heat Culture” that has carried the team to a pair of NBA Finals appearances in the past five years, staying in Miami beyond the expiration of his current contract in 2025-26 seemed like a foregone conclusion.
Despite both sides being happy to extend their relationship, how Adebayo would handle his next contract was a question mark entering this offseason. Had he played out the upcoming campaign, Adebayo would have been eligible for a four-year extension and had the potential to qualify for a supermax extension of up to five years by either making All-NBA or winning Defensive Player of the Year.
Besides the extra year, a supermax extension could have started at up to 35% of the salary cap in 2026-27 as opposed to the 30% projection that gets us to a $166 million valuation for this deal. By locking in his extension now, Adebayo is to some degree betting against his ability to reach supermax eligibility.
Foregoing that possibility may speak to the strength of Heat Culture — or perhaps more importantly the lure of playing in Miami — off the court. Adebayo could reasonably fear that Miami, afraid of the potential of devoting 35% of the cap as he ages, would consider trading him instead of offering the supermax extension. By signing now, Adebayo largely assures he’ll be in Miami and also gets back into free agency in 2029 ahead of his age-32 season.
Whatever Adebayo’s motivation, the Heat front office has to be thrilled to take the supermax possibility off the table and put his next contract on their cap sheet officially. Miami will surely have a trickier time considering a possible extension for Jimmy Butler, who could become a free agent next summer if he declines a $52.4 million player option.
Butler’s age (35 in September) and contract create plenty of uncertainty for how the Heat move forward. Whether it’s Butler or pursuing a younger star, Miami knows that’s to pair with Adebayo for the foreseeable future.
Toronto to sign Barnes to a max rookie extension
Deal:
Grade: A
Along with free agents being able to negotiate with their own teams prior to the traditional June 30 start of free agency, the same is true under the new collective bargaining agreement for extension-eligible players such as Barnes.
It’s not very surprising this deal got done quickly. ESPN’s Brian Windhorst refers to rookie extensions like this as the “fun max” because teams are eager to reward their promising draft picks. Barnes, the Rookie of the Year in 2021-22 and the first player from the 2021 draft to become an All-Star last season at age 22, qualifies as Toronto’s franchise player.
Still, with rookie extensions like this that are sure to be for the maximum salary, there are a couple of points of negotiation to watch. The first is whether it includes criteria to increase the starting salary to 30% of the cap rather than the typical 25% max for players with fewer than seven years of experience, which this does. That would push Barnes’ extension from a projected $225 million to $270 million if he makes All-NBA or wins either MVP or Defensive Player of the Year. The second negotiating point is including a player option on the fifth year, which it doesn’t appear Barnes received. That’s in line with recent rookie extensions.
None of last year’s max extensions (for Anthony Edwards and Tyrese Haliburton, who bumped up their salaries by making All-NBA, as well as LaMelo Ball) included player options.
Beyond Barnes, the rest of this summer’s rookie extensions could be trickier to value. As promising as the 2021 draft looked in Year 1, the development curve has been bumpier for No. 1 pick Cade Cunningham, No. 2 pick Jalen Green and No. 3 pick Evan Mobley. Franz Wagner, taken eighth by the Orlando Magic, and No. 16 pick Alperen Sengun are lower picks with cases for max extensions based on their play to date.
Some of those extensions will surely get done, perhaps even for the max, but they’ll likely require more negotiating than Barnes’ “fun max” did.
Sacramento agrees to Monk extension
Deal:
Grade: A
Getting Malik Monk back is a great outcome for the Kings, who could have been outbid by a team with cap space that aggressively pursued last season’s Sixth Man Award runner-up.
Since Sacramento signed Monk to just a two-year deal back in 2022, when he’d first built up his value as a part-time starter during one season with the Los Angeles Lakers, the Kings could only use early Bird rights to exceed the salary cap and re-sign Monk. That makes this deal the largest they could offer.
To some extent, Sacramento was lucky another team didn’t aggressively pursue Monk, who ranked 10th in my projections of the most valuable free agents over the next three seasons based on his high-volume scoring off the bench and age (26). Much like the Lakers last year with restricted free agent Austin Reaves, the Kings deserve credit for making Monk the best offer possible, including a player option on the final season of the deal as reported by ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski.
Since he’s on the small side for a shooting guard at 6-foot-3, Monk wasn’t a fit with every team. That said, he improved his playmaking last season, averaging a career-high 5.1 assists per game and serving as Sacramento’s primary ball handler with former Kentucky teammate De’Aaron Fox on the bench. The Kings averaged more points per pick-and-roll with Monk at the controls (1.04) than Fox (1.02) when the play led directly to a shot, according to Second Spectrum tracking.
Unfortunately, Sacramento saw Monk’s value proven last season in his absence for the final 10 games due to an MCL sprain. That injury — in the wake of starting shooting guard Kevin Huerter‘s injury — torpedoed the Kings’ chances of a second consecutive playoff appearance. They went 4-6 over that span, slipping into the play-in tournament, and lost in New Orleans with the No. 8 seed on the line after eliminating the Golden State Warriors.
Re-signing Monk will likely necessitate other moves for Sacramento. As ESPN’s Bobby Marks noted, this contract pushes the Kings $1 million above the projected luxury-tax line with 12 players under contract, plus the No. 13 pick in this year’s draft. Sacramento has plenty of excess reserves in the final seasons of their deals who could be moved, with guard Chris Duarte — who played sparingly even with Huerter and Monk out — particularly standing out at $5.9 million. After falling agonizingly short of the playoffs, the Kings will also want to try to upgrade the roster rather than merely retaining last season’s rotation. Either way, Sacramento is closer to a playoff return with Monk under contract.
Indiana extends Siakam
Deal:
Grade: B-
The Pacers re-signing Siakam has been telegraphed since the moment they dealt three first-round picks to acquire him in January, so it’s unsurprising that he’s the first player to take advantage to the change to the NBA’s collective bargaining agreement allowing free agents to negotiate with their own teams beginning the day after the end of the NBA Finals.
It’s also no surprise that Siakam got a deal starting at the maximum 30% of the cap for a player with eight years of experience, although Indiana did manage to hold the line on a four-year deal rather than the five years for which Siakam could have re-signed.
On one level, a 30% max — currently projected at $42.3 million, though subject to change when the salary cap is set on June 30, with the possibility that an unusually short set of series in the conference finals and Finals could mean the NBA’s basketball-related income for this season falls short of expectations — is surely an overpay for Siakam, who has made just two All-Star Games in his career and wasn’t a serious contender this season.
For a franchise like the Pacers that is rarely a player for stars in free agency, however, it was going to be tough to get more mileage out of the cap space they used to sign Bruce Brown last summer and send him to the Toronto Raptors as part of the matching salary for Siakam. Had Siakam chosen to test unrestricted free agency, it’s reasonable to think one of the handful of teams with cap space would have thrown a max offer his way given the paucity of gettable star players.
Beyond that, Indiana is betting the increase in the salary cap with the NBA’s new TV deals set to begin in 2025-26 will help this contract age well. The cap is set to increase the maximum 10% year-to-year over the duration of Siakam’s deal, and those raises — unlike his maximum 8% raises — are compounded. So while Siakam’s contract will be 30% of the cap in 2024-25, by the end of his deal in 2027-28, it figures to be just 28%.
That’s important, because the biggest concern is how well Siakam will age over the course of his contract. He turned 30 in April, putting this deal squarely in his decline years. As I noted in my rankings of the top free agents available, the players deemed most similar to Siakam saw their per-minute performance decline by 5% the following season. It’s possible that by 2027-28, Siakam is more of a complementary piece than the second star he gave the Pacers alongside All-NBA guard Tyrese Haliburton.
Before that happens, adding Siakam midseason raised Indiana’s ceiling dramatically and was key to the team’s unexpected trip to the conference finals. Siakam’s shot creation was valuable throughout that playoff run, starting with two monster games when the Milwaukee Bucks attempted to guard him with center Brook Lopez (73 points on 31-of-48 shooting) and up through averaging 23.0 points on 57% shooting in the final three games of the conference finals with Haliburton limited and then sidelined.
Retaining Siakam keeps Indiana in the East mix as a second-tier contender but raises for both him and Haliburton will force difficult decisions elsewhere starting this summer, including a $5.4 million player option for Jalen Smith and the non-guaranteed $2.1 million salary of Kendall Brown. The Pacers will enter free agency just $14.4 million below the projected luxury tax line with 12 players under contract.
Given Indiana hasn’t paid the tax since 2005-06, that likely limits what Indiana can offer restricted free agent Obi Toppin to return. If another team came in with an offer greater than the $12.9 million non-taxpayer midlevel in the wake of Toppin averaging 10.9 PPG backing up both Siakam and center Myles Turner during the Pacers’ playoff run, Indiana would have to choose between letting him walk or entering the season in the tax.
Down the road, as Turner and key reserve T.J. McConnell see their contracts expire, Indiana won’t be able to maintain the depth that was so important to the team this season. After trading for and re-signing Siakam, the Pacers are into a new stage of their building process, and it’s one that affords less margin for error filling out the roster.
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