On 8 March 2024, Derek McInnes’ Kilmarnock were fifth in the Scottish Premiership with 41 points from 29 matches. They would go on to finish fourth and secure European football in what was a wonderful season for the Rugby Park outfit.

Fast forward a year and they are 10th, with just 31 points from 29 matches.

Given the tightly-contested nature of the league this term, they could yet finish in the top six again, but it will be an uphill battle with just four matches left until the split.

The challenge of competing in an extra competition at the start of the season undoubtedly took a toll, but what else is behind Killie’s drop-off?

Let’s start at the back. Their success last season was built on a solid defence, one that shipped 44 goals in total. They have already surpassed that tally this time around, conceding 47.

That unhappy knack of conceding goals means they have dropped 11 points from winning positions.

Another alarming statistic is those 47 goals come from an expected goals against value of 42.1. Indeed, goalkeeper Kieran O’Hara has the worst save rato in the league with 52.4%.

At the other end, Killie have scored only one goal fewer than this time last season, when they had 34, but the underlying data shows yet more underperformance.

Killie have the fifth-highest expected goals (xG) tally in the league with 38.9, but the third-lowest goal haul, with only Ross County and St Johnstone netting fewer.

In total, McInnes’ side have missed 37 big chances, with Marley Watkins alone squandering 13. Only Bruce Anderson is delivering in front of goal. The former Aberdeen and Livingston striker has scored eight times from an xG value of 7.9, converting 26.7% of his shots into goals.

McInnes has also been unable to find a consistent starting team, making 74 changes to his XI in total.

Underperforming in both defence and attack while having an unsettled side is hardly conducive to positive results, and goes some way to explaining Killie’s slump from the highs of the previous campaign.

Stats taken from Opta and FotMob.