NFL Overreactions Week 4
Mackenzie Salmon breaks down some of the biggest games from NFL week 4.
Sports Seriously
The 2024 NFL season is now heading into its fifth week, but fantasy football managers are still dealing with difficult start ’em, sit ’em decisions at quarterback.
Plenty of unexpected contributors – like Sam Darnold – have emerged as fantasy stars to open the season. That has made the position deeper than ever, especially with only a handful of notable injuries occurring at the position.
Because of that depth, many fantasy football owners either have two top quarterbacks on their roster or have access to a deep pool of options on the waiver wire. As is often the case, the bevy of options has created some difficult, existential questions for fantasy football players.
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Can you really sit Patrick Mahomes and risk him breaking out of his early season slump? Is Darnold a matchup-proof quarterback? Can you really trust the Indianapolis Colts‘ starting quarterback in a favorable situation? As always, the answers depend on the composition of your roster and your appetite for risk.
Here’s a breakdown of who you should start and who you should sit at quarterback in Week 5 of the fantasy football season.
Love was supposed to have a tough matchup against the Minnesota Vikings in Week 4. He was coming off an MCL sprain and was facing a top NFL defense that had bent but not often broken in the first three weeks of the season.
Love came out of the gates slowly, but he was on fire in the second half. He racked up 389 yards, four touchdowns and three interceptions as the Packers tried to make an improbable comeback and reminded many of why he was viewed as a potential MVP candidate coming into his second full season as a starter.
The Packers may not need to throw as much to beat the Los Angeles Rams, but Sean McVay’s squad is one of five teams to allow at least eight passing touchdowns to quarterbacks this year. That should allow Love to have an efficient outing, especially with Green Bay needing a win to keep pace with the Vikings and Detroit Lions in the stacked NFC North.
Smith has been one of the more consistent fantasy quarterbacks to begin the 2024 NFL season, and with good reason. He leads the league in pass attempts (159) and passing yards (1,182) as new offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb has brought a pass-heavy approach to Seattle’s offense.
The Seahawks are playing the New York Giants in Week 5. That may not be the most appealing matchup, as the Giants rank 17th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks this season, but Smith still figures to have a high floor given his volume. That makes him one of the safer bye week fill-ins available this week.
Fields hasn’t done a lot as a passer in his first season with the Steelers, but his rushing ability has been on display often throughout his first four starts. The fourth-year quarterback is averaging 36.3 rushing yards per game and has run for three touchdowns in his last two outings. That will give him a very high floor, especially in a favorable matchup against the Dallas Cowboys.
Dallas has allowed the sixth-most rushing yards to quarterbacks this season (127) and is one of five teams to allow multiple rushing touchdowns to a quarterback this season. Granted, a lot of that production (87 yards and a touchdown) came from Lamar Jackson, but Fields’ scrambling ability is similar to his AFC North counterpart. They are two of the three quarterbacks to run for 1,000-plus yards in a season, after all.
The Cowboys are also likely to be without top edge rushers DeMarcus Lawrence and Micah Parsons, so they will have a tougher time than usual containing Fields on the edge.
It isn’t yet clear whether Flacco or Richardson will start for the Colts after Richardson exited the team’s Week 4 game with a hip pointer, but either passer can be trusted in a favorable matchup.
The Colts are taking on the Jacksonville Jaguars, who have allowed the most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks this season. They rank second in the league in passing yards allowed per game, so both Flacco and Richardson would profile as potential downfield playmakers against the hapless, 0-4 defense.
If Richardson plays, his rushing potential wouldn’t be as high as usual given his injury. Even so, he could be a top-10 fantasy quarterback as a passer alone, so don’t be afraid to trust him as a top-tier streamer.
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Benching Mahomes may seem absurd on the surface, but this simply isn’t a good spot in which to trust him. The Chiefs will be without their two most proven wide receivers, as Rashee Rice a knee injury in Week 4 while Hollywood Brown is out for most of the regular season with a sternoclavicular injury.
Travis Kelce and Xavier Worthy will allow Mahomes to move the ball enough to be effective, but the veteran quarterback’s ceiling is low against a New Orleans Saints defense that has allowed just two total touchdowns to quarterbacks this season.
Darnold’s first season with the Vikings has been terrific thus far. He has been a perfect fit in Kevin O’Connell’s offensive system and has thrown for at least 181 yards and two touchdowns in each of his four starts. That may make Darnold seem like a consistent starter who should be in the lineup each week.
But Darnold faces a tough matchup against the New York Jets in Week 5. Sure, this is a “revenge game” for Darnold against the team that drafted him, but the Jets are allowing the second-fewest passing yards per game in the league (128). They have also allowed just two touchdowns to quarterbacks through four weeks, so this figures to be more of a run-heavy matchup for the Vikings, who can lean on Aaron Jones against a below-average New York run defense.
Add in that the Jets and Vikings are playing across the pond in London and there’s too much uncertainty to view Darnold as a surefire starter.
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Prescott has posted multiple touchdowns in back-to-back games, but it won’t be easy for him to repeat that feat against the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Steelers are allowing just 13.3 points per game to opponents and the sixth-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks.
The one positive for Prescott is that Dallas doesn’t have much of a running game, so he ranks second in the league in passes attempted (149) through four weeks. But like Mahomes, Prescott has a much lower ceiling than average in this tough matchup, so trusting a streamer with a better matchup wouldn’t be the worst idea.
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