NFL Overreactions Week 4
Mackenzie Salmon breaks down some of the biggest games from NFL week 4.
Sports Seriously
Many fantasy football leagues have ditched kickers in recent seasons, citing the position as too unpredictable to include in week-to-week fantasy leagues.
Those leagues may be reconsidering their decisions after the start kickers have enjoyed during the 2024 NFL season.
NFL kickers are becoming more accurate than ever. Fifty-yard field goals were once considered to be a 50-50 proposition for even the NFL’s best specialists. Now, most kickers make kicks from distance more often than they miss them.
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That makes kicker an explosive but volatile piece to any quality fantasy lineup. And while a bad week from a kicker will frustrate fantasy football managers, the weeks during which kickers score in double figures, or even approach the fabled 20-point mark, can sometimes pull owners through lean-scoring weeks from skill position players.
The NFL’s kicker hierarchy is starting to change a bit, as Brandon Aubrey may be the league’s best now over Justin Tucker. Harrison Butker is also among the top contenders, so relying on those guys most weeks will be worthwhile.
But what do you do when your kicker has a bye week? Here’s a breakdown of the best kickers to trust in fantasy football for Week 5 of the 2024 NFL season, including some top streamers to consider and avoid.
The Commanders’ decision to sign Seibert after Cade York struggled in Week 1 of the 2024 NFL season has been a great one. In three games since taking over the kicking job, Seibert has made all 10 of his field goal attempts and all nine extra points as part of the team’s explosive, Jayden Daniels-led offense.
Daniels has led more scoring drives (23) than he has thrown incompletions (19) through the first four weeks of the season, so Seibert figures to get plenty more chances to keep kicking. The only question is whether he will find success from 50-plus yards, as he hasn’t attempted a field goal from that distance yet and is just 2 of 6 from there during his career.
Still, Seibert is well worth trusting, as he has gotten a 40-plus-yard attempt in each of his first three starts. The Cleveland Browns are allowing 2.5 field goal attempts per game, so that should give Seibert a chance to get double-digit fantasy points again if he continues to be accurate.
Tucker seemed to correct the hitch in his giddy-up during the Ravens’ 35-10 shellacking of the Buffalo Bills. He didn’t attempt any field goals in that game, but he made all five of his extra points while working on a mechanical issue that caused him to struggle early in the season.
The Ravens are playing the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 5. Cincinnati is allowing 26 points per game, tied with the Dallas Cowboys for the fifth-most in the NFL, and will have a tough time containing Baltimore’s explosive running game. That should give Tucker a chance to rack up more extra points and perhaps knock in a field goal or two.
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Santos is one of the top streaming kickers and bye week replacements for Week 5. His Bears are playing the Carolina Panthers, who are allowing a league-high 32.3 points per game and 2.3 field goals per contest. Chicago’s offense moved the ball more consistently against the Los Angeles Rams than it did in weeks past, so that unit could set Santos up for a couple of field goals.
Santos has also been fairly accurate from 50-plus yards, making 4-of-5 kicks from that distance this season. That, coupled with his career success rate of 85.7 percent overall, should make him a safe and productive option for any fantasy lineup.
Zuerlein attempted four field goals for the Jets in Week 4 against a strong Denver Broncos defense, so some may expect a similar result from the New York kicker in a battle with another good defensive team, the Minnesota Vikings.
In reality, the Vikings have been one of the NFL’s stingiest teams against kickers. They have allowed just six field goal attempts through four weeks and only three of them have been converted. Minnesota’s strength stems from their penchant for allowing a lot of passing yards but getting opportunistic stops with their league-leading eight interceptions.
Taking away those potential chances will put the onus on Zuerlein to convert what could be very few opportunities in an unfamiliar Tottenham Hotspur Stadium environment. And even if Zuerlein gets more chances than expected, the Vikings have allowed just one field goal from 50-plus yards all season.
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Usually, kickers playing on the road against the Broncos get a boost because the ball travels further in high-altitude environments. However, the Broncos have allowed just 13.8 points per game, third-fewest in the NFL, through four weeks, so it might be tough for Gardner Minshew and Co. to earn an abundance of field goal opportunities.
It also doesn’t help that Carlson is just 3 of 5 on kicks from 40-plus yards this season. He has a high ceiling, but if he misses again from distance, odds are he will be a disappointment for fantasy football managers.
Hopkins may look like an appealing streaming option because the Washington Commanders are allowing 25.5 points per game, good for the eighth-most in the NFL.
That said, Dan Quinn’s stop unit is improving and is fresh off limiting an explosive Arizona Cardinals offense to just 14 points. Matt Prater didn’t attempt a field goal in that contest, and it seems like that will be a trend for kickers playing the Commanders. Why? Because they’ll need touchdowns to keep pace with Washington’s offense, which is one of the most efficient units in the NFL.
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