We’ve got another exciting Southwest Division matchup on the NBA schedule as the Memphis Grizzlies and San Antonio Spurs are set to tip at 8 p.m. ET on Monday at FedExForum. Memphis is 33-16 overall and 20-5 at home, while San Antonio is 21-25 overall and 8-12 on the road. The Grizzlies will be without star point guard Ja Morant (shoulder) on Monday. The Spurs reportedly made a huge deal centered around the acquisition of Kings guard De’Aaron Fox on Sunday, but he won’t be in the lineup Monday as that deal is still being finalized. 

The Grizzlies are favored by 4.5 points in the latest Grizzlies vs. Spurs odds, and the over/under is 242 points. Before entering any Spurs vs. Grizzlies picks, you’ll want to see the NBA predictions from the advanced computer model at SportsLine.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in betting profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past six-plus seasons. The model enters Week 16 of the 2024-25 NBA season on a sizzling 144-102 roll on all top-rated NBA picks dating back to last season, returning nearly $4,000. Anyone following at sportsbooks and on betting apps could have seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on San Antonio vs. Memphis. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Here are several NBA betting lines for the game:

• Grizzlies vs. Spurs spread: Grizzlies -4.5
• Grizzlies vs. Spurs over/under: 242 points
• Grizzlies vs. Spurs money line: Grizzlies: -188, Spurs: +157
• Grizzlies vs. Spurs picks: See picks here
• Grizzlies vs. Spurs streaming: FuboTV (Try for free)

Why the Grizzlies can cover

The Grizzlies are headed into Monday’s matchup after walking away with a 132-119 victory over the Bucks on Sunday. The win made it back-to-back victories for Memphis. The Grizzlies’ win was a true team effort, with several players turning in solid performances. 

Perhaps the best among them was Santi Aldama, who posted 23 points to go along with eight rebounds. Aldama continues to roll, besting his previous point total in each of the last three games he’s played. Jaren Jackson Jr. was also extremely effective in the win, recording 37 points, five rebounds and two assists. For the season, Jackson Jr. is averaging 23.1 points, 6.1 rebounds and 2.1 assists per game. See which team to pick here.

Why the Spurs can cover 

The Spurs suffered their closest loss since December 29, 2024, on Saturday. They lost 105-103 to the Heat on a last-minute shot from Bam Adebayo. The Spurs have now lost nine of their last 12 games. However, San Antonio is 7-3 against the spread in its last 10 games on the road. 

Center Victor Wembanyama (questionable, illness) continues to shine for the Spurs. He’s averaging 24.6 points and 10.9 rebounds per game, both of which rank inside the top 15 in the NBA. See which team to pick here.

How to make Spurs vs. Grizzlies picks

The model has simulated Grizzlies vs. Spurs 10,000 times and the results are in. We can tell you that the model is leaning Under, and it’s also generated a point-spread pick that hits in almost 70% of simulations. You can only see the pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Spurs vs. Grizzlies, and which side of the spread hits nearly 70% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread to back, all from the model that has returned well over $10,000 on top-rated NBA picks, and find out.