On Saturday, BYU will look to avoid a letdown game against Kansas following an emotional win over rival Utah. The Jayhawks have underperformed this season. Once viewed as a contender to win the league, Kansas is 2-4 in conference play. However, Kansas has been competitive in every game, they’ve just failed to win close games. Additionally, Kansas has started to play better over the last few weeks – they are coming off a convincing win over Iowa State. The opposite has been true for BYU. The Cougars are undefeated and 4-0 in one-score games. SP+, a predictive metric created by ESPN’s Bill Connelly, predicted BYU-Kansas.

SP+ gives BYU a 69% chance to win with an expected final score of 33-25 in favor of the Cougars. SP+ is more optimistic about BYU’s chances than both oddsmakers and ESPN FPI. FPI gives BYU a 61% chance to win and BYU is currently favored by just a field goal according to oddsmakers.

In the SP+ rankings, BYU is currently up to 22nd overall. BYU is balanced – the Cougars rank 31st in both offensive and defensive efficiency and 18th in special teams.

Kansas is not as balanced. The Jayhawks are led by a high-powered offense that ranks 28th nationally, but their defense has been mediocre at 70th in the country. Their combined SP+ ranking is 42nd overall.

This game will come down to the BYU defense and whether they are able to contain a dangerous Kansas offense. Kansas quarterback Jalon Daniels, who beat BYU last season, has been playing very well over the last few weeks.