Handicapping the Smarty Jones on Saturday at Oaklawn comes down to whether you think Kale’s Angel can repeat his Advent Stakes win when stretching to two turns on dirt for the first time.

First the positive. Kale’s Angel’s sire, Complexity, is definitely a dirt sire early in his career. In fact, Kale’s Angel is his only winner. All his other progeny are a combined 0-for-28 on turf through Dec. 31.

Now the negative. Complexity has 26 winners and none have won beyond a mile, going 0-for-8. Kale’s Angel has gone only a mile in two turf stakes tries, and those were OK given their depth. But the 1 1/16 miles of this race is why Kale’s Angel is not even money on my fair odds.

All that said, the Advent was impressive. It earned a fast figure from Ragozin and Brisnet, and the Brisnet pace ratings showed a nice middle move at the sharp 5 1/2-furlong distance. I’ll be trepidatious about where this colt goes from here if he continues to stretch out, but speed and the rail merit respect.

Hot Property is the 8-5 morning line favorite and does not offer value at that price. His debut was a nice gate-to-wire effort at this distance, but I really don’t love Triple Crown hopefuls who need a route of ground to break their maidens. Now, that was his career debut so maybe he’s due a little bit of grace. But the price is just too short here given the slow pace win last out.

Both Mo Quality and Coal Battle are second-tier contenders for me. At 5-1 and 9-2 on the morning line, respectively, neither is super exciting. But if Kale’s Angel or Hot Property take more money than expected, then Mo Quality or Coal Battle is where I would expect the value to lie. I’ll give a small lean toward Mo Quality since he figures to be more forward with a better post.

I’m good singling Kale’s Angel on most multi-race wagers and will evaluate based on Mo Quality and Coal Battle’s prices and whether Hot Property is favored.