In less than two months, we’ll be watching NBA playoff basketball. That means we’ll see teams with a new sense of purpose out of the All-Star break, with most having around 30 games left in the regular season. While the top seeds in each conference seem fairly secure, there is plenty of shuffling still to be done at pretty much every other spot.
So how does a team go on a late run? Usually it involves one or two players stepping up and catching fire, so that’s what we’re looking at here, thinking about which players have the potential to alter the fortunes of their team and the league as a whole. Here are six game-changers who have all had atypical seasons for one reason or another and could make a significant impact during the NBA’s stretch run.
Well, duh. When healthy, Doncic is — at the very least — a top-five NBA player. With the Lakers just two games back in the loss column of the No. 3 seed in the Western Conference, Doncic has the potential to create a seismic shift before the playoffs even start. Landing in the fourth or fifth spot would mean a second-round matchup with the top-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder, but if Doncic can help propel the Lakers to the second or third seed, they potentially wouldn’t have to face the OKC juggernaut until the conference finals.
A month ago, who would have imagined we’d be talking about the Lakers as a conference finals contender? But that’s just how significant the move for Doncic was, and he has a chance to make some serious waves over the final 29 games of the regular season.
According to Draymond Green, the addition of Butler means that the Warriors are going to win the NBA championship. Less-biased observers aren’t ready to go that far, but there’s no denying that Butler greatly raises Golden State’s ceiling as the season winds down. In four games, the Warriors have performed well with the trio of Butler, Stephen Curry and Draymond Green on the court, but it’s really in the second unit where Butler is making a huge difference.
The lineup of Butler, Green, Brandin Podziemski, Buddy Hield and Quinten Post has absolutely dominated (in the extremely small sample size of 14 minutes), averaging 121 points per 100 possessions while allowing just 107. It’s easy to see why, since the lineup has a go-to scorer (Butler), three playmakers (Butler, Green, Podziemski) and two excellent floor spacers (Hield and Post). Defensively, Butler and Green on the court at the same time is enough to frustrate opponents to the point of submission.
So far, Butler has done exactly what the Warriors need him to do. He’s averaged 21 points (compared to the 17 he was putting up in Miami before the trade), and he’s taken 40 free throws in four games. Prior to the addition of Butler, Golden State only had one player (Jonathan Kuminga) averaging over five free throw attempts per game. All this has led to a plus-10 net rating for the Warriors in Butler’s four games.
Before Butler | 111.8 | 112.2 | -0.4 |
With Butler | 116.4 | 106.7 | +9.7 |
The Warriors currently sit in the 10th spot in the West, with the same record as the No. 9 Sacramento Kings. It’s certainly conceivable that Golden State could go on a run to get out of the Play-In Tournament, which would scare any potential opponent, and that’s largely going to depend on how well Butler plays down the stretch.
Despite everything we’ve seen on the court this season, the Philadelphia 76ers — with a healthy Embiid, Tyrese Maxey and Paul George — would be an abnormal first-round opponent for a No. 1 or No. 2 seed. The problem for Philly, is that they actually have to get to the postseason first.
Riding a five-game losing streak into the break, the 76ers have the same record as the No. 12 Brooklyn Nets and are one game back of the No. 10 Chicago Bulls in the loss column. If they’re going to make a run into the thick of the Play-In race (No. 6 seems well out of reach at this point), it’s all going to depend on the big fella.
After missing 15 straight games from early January to early February, Embiid has played in four of the Sixers’ last six. Although the record isn’t very encouraging (1-3), he has played well with averages of 26.5 points, 10.5 rebounds and 6.5 assists. For the season, Philadelphia is outscoring opponents by 2.4 points per 100 possessions with Embiid, Maxey and George on the floor. That’s not the juggernaut they thought it would be, but it gives the Sixers a much better chance of winning than when one or more of that trio is out.
Are the 76ers going to win the title this season? Probably not. Could they go on a run and become a nightmare playoff draw? That mostly depends on how well — and how often — Embiid is able to play.
The Thunder were arguably the best team in the NBA even without Holmgren, but with him they can not only distance themselves from any Western Conference competition, but can also give themselves a much better shot against any of their potential Finals opponents from the East.
Holmgren was off to a tremendous start this season, but was sidelined for nearly three months with a fracture in his pelvis. While he’s shown some rust on the offensive end sine his return, there’s no denying that Holmgren raises the Thunder’s ceiling — due in large part to his defensive impact.
Holmgren on | 115.3 | 98.7 | +16.7 |
Holmgren off | 117.3 | 104.9 | +12.4 |
As you can see in the chart, Holmgren takes the Thunder from a great defensive team to a virtually impenetrable one. He’s one of the best rim protectors in the league, averaging nearly three blocks per game this season and landing in the 76th percentile in defending shots at the basket, per Synergy Sports.
The Thunder have the West locked up, but they’re in an important race with the Cleveland Cavaliers for the league’s best record, which would give them home-court advantage in any potential Finals matchup. Down the stretch and into the postseason, Holmgren has the ability to swing title fortunes as much as any player in the league.
It’s no surprise that the Nuggets‘ eight-game winning streak before the break coincided with an absolute heater from Jamal Murray. The veteran guard, who hasn’t quite looked like himself for much of this season, has averaged 26 points and seven assists during the streak on scorching 54/38/93 shooting splits — punctuated by a 55-point masterpiece against the Blazers in the final game before the break. Denver has put up an absurd 137 points per 100 possessions with Murray on the floor during the last eight games.
The dynamic guard serves a dual purpose, as both the go-to pick-and-roll partner for Nikola Jokic and the offensive engine when the three-time MVP sits. For the season, the Nuggets have put up a paltry 103.5 points per 100 possessions with Jokic on the bench, but in the last eight games that’s improved to 112, partly thanks to the play of Murray.
We’ve all seen Murray perform in the playoffs, but he’ll need to keep up this type of play for the rest of the regular season if the Nuggets are going to secure a top-three seed, which would avoid a potential matchup with OKC until the Western Conference finals. In wins, Murray averages 22.5 points on 48% shooting. In losses, that drops to 18.6 points on 45% shooting. With Jokic such a consistent force, the Nuggets often go as Murray goes.
I know what you’re thinking … wasn’t Kyle Kuzma one of the least efficient offensive players in the entire league this season with the Wizards? Why yes, yes he was. He ranked in the 16th percentile in points per possession, according to Synergy Sports, and he had by far the lowest PIE (player impact estimate) of anyone with a usage rate of 25% or more, per NBA.com. In plain English, the guy straight-up stunk.
But it wasn’t that long ago that Kuzma found success as a role player on a Lakers championship team that featured LeBron James and Anthony Davis. The Bucks, who traded away franchise icon and all-around nice guy Khris Middleton in search of a more consistent No. 3 next to Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard, hope that Kuzma can return to the kind of impactful basketball that he showcased in that championship run.
We don’t have any evidence of that yet because Kuzma and Antetokounmpo have yet to take the floor together, but the Bucks have a net rating of *checks notes* minus-20.3(!) when Lillard and Kuzma share the court.
So, the hope is that once Antetokounmpo returns to the lineup Kuzma can concern himself less with scoring and more with doing all the little things that could help the Bucks make a run in the Eastern Conference. As it stands, they’re well within striking distance of the No. 4 seed, which would give them home-court advantage in the first round. If they win, they would advance to presumably face the Cavs, who are incredible, but you can never count out a team with Giannis and Dame … and maybe Kuz?
Antetokounmpo is putting up another MVP-caliber season while averaging a career-best 31.8 points per game. Lillard is quietly putting together an incredible year, averaging 25.8 points and 7.5 assists on 45/38/92 splits. Kuzma has a real opportunity to step in and help Milwaukee go on a run to finish off the regular season.
Conversely, he could just continue with his 47% effective field goal shooting and the Bucks will be missing Middleton more than ever come playoff time.
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